Coronavirus Outbreak

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Fitness enthusiast, 42, who rejected vaccine, dies of Covid
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/04/fit-and-healthy-man-42-from-southport-who-rejected-vaccine-dies-of-covid
 
@swag_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437099) said:
Where are the people getting all this misinformation in the first place? E.g. this is to turn Australia into a dictatorship.


Much of it comes from right wing conspiracy websites in the USA and is twisted by people here to fit the narrative into an Australian scenario.It is absolutely bizarre what people will swallow as truth if it is repeated constantly.
 
@trusted_insider said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437125) said:
Fitness enthusiast, 42, who rejected vaccine, dies of Covid
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/04/fit-and-healthy-man-42-from-southport-who-rejected-vaccine-dies-of-covid

"Only the sick and elderly are dying from it!" trope is starting to wear thin now.

People that aren't in peak physical form don't climb mountains.
 
@tilllindemann said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437098) said:
@tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437090) said:
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437082) said:
@trusted_insider said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437077) said:
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437071) said:
At some point though Australia is opening up. Maybe it’s now. Maybe NSW has stuffed it so bad now the government have already given up. I don’t know.

Hope not, that would lead to a **lot** of death.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-05/older-australians-vaccine-hesitancy/100351324

Cliffs: *Only 44 per cent of people aged 70 and over in NSW are fully vaccinated.*

This is my concern. I don't think people are getting it. People are dying with a relative small number of infections that we have now. People are getting very sick.

I've stated that Britain is considered a success story. A counter argument is that they had 100+ daily deaths during the period it's being called a success story.

The good thing is that it's a lot higher percentage over 70 who've now had one dose. 80% have had one dose.

The kicker is the unvaccinated are going to die and it's going to be to me a considerable amount of them. Let's assume you can't get that remaining 20% to get vaccinated. Realistically in that demographic you could easily see a 5% death rate. That is probably on the low side.

This is a disaster that I don't think we will ever see again. I hope we never see it again.

Earl (IMO) you need to chill out a bit about this.

Your main point that misinformation about vaccines is dangerous is 100% correct and I share your opinion that the best way out is large percentage of vaccination.

However, just as you have railed against misinformation and hyperbole by antivaxxers, you need to be accurate in your "facts" as well. There is no chance of a 5% death rate. The maximum mortality rate of Covid (even Delta) is slightly under 1%. The actual mortality rates at the moment are WAY under 1%. As you correctly say, there is approx 100 a day dying ATM in the UK, but for months now their daily case rates have been over 20K (up to 44K). Mortality rates are dropping significantly due to vaccinations (yes I get your point was about unvaccinated) and improved therapeutics.

People are going to die but people die of viruses. In 2017, 1200 people died of Flu in Australia (around 20 a week), it is consistently around 400-500 (10 a week) annually but we never heard about it, its part of life in an urban society. Of course without lockdowns and other measures COVID deaths would have swamped Flu deaths but if we get to 70% vaccination, IMO this virus will start to resemble the flu for annual deaths.

Mate I don't think there is any reasonable comparison with flu and I don't think your less than 1% mortality rate is correct. Yesterday there were 704,000 infections and 10,392 deaths globally, according to worldometer. Which is above 1% to start with. But deaths also lag infections, understandably, so those 10,392 deaths correlate to a few weeks ago, when infections were closer to 500,000 than 700,00.

I dont think you can calculate actual mortality rates from such broad data. That data includes all nations, with VERY different health systems and reporting regimes. Numbers fluctuate for different case rates. For example in Victoria, the mortality rate is 4% (820deaths/20968cases) because of the Aged Care disaster. The Mortality rate in NSW is (ATM) 0.8% (78deaths/10152 cases).

The UK have reported over 20K daily cases since 27 June (6 weeks). For 6 weeks daily cases have been between 20k and 48K. That represents a mortality rate of less that 0.5% (with MUCH higher vaccination rates).

It is never getting anywhere near 5% in nations comparable to Aus.

Also, let me be VERY clear. I am not *equating* COVID to the Flu. As I said in my post, without lockdowns and vaccinations, the deaths by COVID would/will be orders of magnitude higher than the Flu. My point is simply that the Flu kills between 10-20 people a week on average in normal years and we dont have counters or lockdowns as a result. IMO at some stage when we get vaccinations to a high enough rate, we will need to have the same attitude to COVID. Ultimately we will have to live with it. If we blindly live with 500 deaths a year of the Flu, how many deaths a year will we accept from Covid? 500? Zero?
 
I went out to grab a burger for lunch, and while I was waiting there a guy started on a tirade to someone he was talking to on the phone about COVID and the government.

He thought he was some sort of Italian gangster, saying that he knew people on the inside of government, and that "something is going down real soon", a scam, officials exposed etc..

Scarily though, when he got off the phone (he was talking very loudly) two strangers also waiting there engaged him with approval, and then they all started having a big chat about COVID being the world's biggest scam.

Some takeaways:

- The virus isn't real
- The vaccines are untested and don't work in the same way 'normal' vaccines do (they infect your bloodstream. apparently)
- They feel sorry for those who have been vaccinated "it's not their fault, they just haven't done their own research and do anything the government tells them"
- And the guy on the phone saying that the vaccines are essentially bugged - being used so that the government can track us (to which even the other idiots in agreeance to this point looked a little uncomfortable).

Longest wait for a burger I've ever had.
 
@mrem said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437100) said:
I'll answer both here.
I think I have made my views pretty clear, but I'll state them here .

I believe policy decisions should be made from the best available evidence. The Covid response is more than just Covid deaths per million. It is about how our lives are affected by it holistically. Simply correlating one variable against another is not strong evidence, don't take my word on this, there a multiple textbooks on this stuff. There are some simple control variables that one could use and the data has a high degree of accuracy. I believe including sensible control variables would improve the outcomes of the model significantly.

It is my opinion that the public discourse is overly simplistic, which can ultimately drive policy responses. These policy responses might be popular but sub-optimal. My opinion is that we should take into account all the evidence. I think there is reasonable evidence that a relationship exists between economic activity and health outcomes, therefore we need to have a joint discussion about the economy and health because they are linked. Stating that it is health vs the economy is completely ignorant of the data. I think there is a relationship between harsh lockdowns and mental health, which can have very long-term implications.

I also think there is an inter-temporal issue at play too. Elimination might be a great strategy in the short-run but mitigation might be better in the long-run.

It might be the elimination strategy is optimal, great we know that for next time. But what if it is not optimal? If it is sub-optimal, people will be dying unnecessarily. It is my opinion that we will never know unless we are able to ask hard questions and challenge the status quo.

Saying that policy responses should be based on the "best available evidence" is just a truism. You don't know what they are basing policy decisions on as the decisions are being made at the cabinet or cabinet committee level. They are undoubtedly getting advice from a range of departments, including Treasury (who advise on everything). They would be doing modelling that would look at a broad range of variables. There are numerous actuaries within the bureaucracy that know what they're doing.

Who needs to have a joint discussion about health and the economy? That sounds like something Waleed Aly would say: "we need to have a conversation about this". Do you think that doesn't happen at the government departmental level? It happens all the time. What is the point of public discourse about it unless the public chooses to adequately inform itself so that it can meaningfully contribute. Part of the reason we have elected representatives is so that they can be across these issues and make informed decisions on our behalf.

The government will be getting quality advice from the bureaucracy that covers a broad range of considerations. They will be getting high quality modelling. At the end of the day though they will make political decisions because they are politicians. Their previous actions will inform their future actions because they concern themselves with self-preservation. They will be influenced by the perceived likelihood of electoral outcomes flowing from their decisions. Some of them will not be able to stomach the certainty of immediate loss of life vs the possibility of larger losses in the future. That is just the nature of politics.
 
@sco77y said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437131) said:
I went out to grab a burger for lunch, and while I was waiting there a guy started on a tirade to someone he was talking to on the phone about COVID and the government.

He thought he was some sort of Italian gangster, saying that he knew people on the inside of government, and that "something is going down real soon", a scam, officials exposed etc..

Scarily though, when he got off the phone (he was talking very loudly) two strangers also waiting there engaged him with approval, and then they all started having a big chat about COVID being the world's biggest scam.

Some takeaways:

- The virus isn't real
- The vaccines are untested and don't work in the same way 'normal' vaccines do (they infect your bloodstream. apparently)
- They feel sorry for those who have been vaccinated "it's not their fault, they just haven't done their own research and do anything the government tells them"
- And the guy on the phone saying that the vaccines are essentially bugged - being used so that the government can track us (to which even the other idiots in agreeance to this point looked a little uncomfortable).

Longest wait for a burger I've ever had.


At least you had a comedy routine on loudspeaker while you waited.Its a pity you didnt record it and put it on the web to show the world what cretins these people are.
 
@papacito said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437105) said:
@tilllindemann said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437098) said:
@tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437090) said:
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437082) said:
@trusted_insider said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437077) said:
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437071) said:
At some point though Australia is opening up. Maybe it’s now. Maybe NSW has stuffed it so bad now the government have already given up. I don’t know.

Hope not, that would lead to a **lot** of death.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-05/older-australians-vaccine-hesitancy/100351324

Cliffs: *Only 44 per cent of people aged 70 and over in NSW are fully vaccinated.*

This is my concern. I don't think people are getting it. People are dying with a relative small number of infections that we have now. People are getting very sick.

I've stated that Britain is considered a success story. A counter argument is that they had 100+ daily deaths during the period it's being called a success story.

The good thing is that it's a lot higher percentage over 70 who've now had one dose. 80% have had one dose.

The kicker is the unvaccinated are going to die and it's going to be to me a considerable amount of them. Let's assume you can't get that remaining 20% to get vaccinated. Realistically in that demographic you could easily see a 5% death rate. That is probably on the low side.

This is a disaster that I don't think we will ever see again. I hope we never see it again.

Earl (IMO) you need to chill out a bit about this.

Your main point that misinformation about vaccines is dangerous is 100% correct and I share your opinion that the best way out is large percentage of vaccination.

However, just as you have railed against misinformation and hyperbole by antivaxxers, you need to be accurate in your "facts" as well. There is no chance of a 5% death rate. The maximum mortality rate of Covid (even Delta) is slightly under 1%. The actual mortality rates at the moment are WAY under 1%. As you correctly say, there is approx 100 a day dying ATM in the UK, but for months now their daily case rates have been over 20K (up to 44K). Mortality rates are dropping significantly due to vaccinations (yes I get your point was about unvaccinated) and improved therapeutics.

People are going to die but people die of viruses. In 2017, 1200 people died of Flu in Australia (around 20 a week), it is consistently around 400-500 (10 a week) annually but we never heard about it, its part of life in an urban society. Of course without lockdowns and other measures COVID deaths would have swamped Flu deaths but if we get to 70% vaccination, IMO this virus will start to resemble the flu for annual deaths.

Mate I don't think there is any reasonable comparison with flu and I don't think your less than 1% mortality rate is correct. Yesterday there were 704,000 infections and 10,392 deaths globally, according to worldometer. Which is above 1% to start with. But deaths also lag infections, understandably, so those 10,392 deaths correlate to a few weeks ago, when infections were closer to 500,000 than 700,00.

Even if you equate covid to the flu (which it isn't) you only need to look back to h1n1 to see the massive impact it had on the health system.

I am not *equating* Covid and the Flu. I was quite clear that without lockdowns and other measures Covid would kill many more than the Flu, however my point is at some stage we will have to live with this exactly like we live with the Flu. Once vaccinations are high enough IMO we will need to make that transition.

Take the UK for an example (because they are highly vaccinated). They have between 15k-25K deaths a year by influenza which is an average of 68 deaths a day. Their 7 day rolling average of deaths weeks after a wake of infections is currently at 81. I think the UK are and will take this approach.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1676118/
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
 
@cultured_bogan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437127) said:
@trusted_insider said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437125) said:
Fitness enthusiast, 42, who rejected vaccine, dies of Covid
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/04/fit-and-healthy-man-42-from-southport-who-rejected-vaccine-dies-of-covid

"Only the sick and elderly are dying from it!" trope is starting to wear thin now.

People that aren't in peak physical form don't climb mountains.

Even without the younger now dying, what the elderly trope is saying that it's OK for their Mum, Dad, Grandparents, Elderly Aunts and Uncles and Cousins to die, as long as its not them.
 
@cultured_bogan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437124) said:
@hobbo1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437026) said:
@demps said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437022) said:
@willow said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437017) said:
@demps said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437014) said:
@willow said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437009) said:
Well, NSW numbers are up again today and it's the same old spiel from Gladys...The lockdown hasn't worked, in so far as she could have, and should have gone harder with it.

I'll be surprised if she relaxes any restrictions next month.

You think we're looking at a long lockdown?

My sister in law has a wedding booked for next month.
Wonder how that'll go...


Hunter/Newcastle entered a 7 snap lockdown.
I have no doubts it will be extended.

I just can't see us getting out of this Demps. Maybe it's just my frustration at the whole thing with the way it's playing out, but it's clear people who have the virus either aren't aware, or don't care because they are still out in the community and it's continuing to spread, which means resources will be spread thinner, reducing their effectiveness.

100%

Rough times ahead.
Craving some normality.

But yeah, people need to follow the rules.

It’ll be a long off season for us footy heads

That's when I do all my bushwalking (when the cricket's not on.)

Just got back from the Falls not long ago. First time down the bottom, an absolutely beautiful spot.

Did you plant a crop ?
 
A relation of my partner is refusing to have the vaccine on the advice of his church (Christian, Blacktown) . The foreign things in body nonsense . The same guy has stent in his artery after a heart attack-be happy to leave it there I would guess.
 
@don_kershane said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437141) said:
A relation of my partner is refusing to have the vaccine on the advice of his church (Christian, Blacktown) . The foreign things in body nonsense . The same guy has stent in his artery after a heart attack-be happy to leave it there I would guess.

If he's that committed he should really arrange to have it removed.
 
@tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437090) said:
There is no chance of a 5% death rate.

That definitely wasn't what I said. If that is the impression you have I must have incorrectly made my point or you misread my post. I agree there is no way we are getting a 5% death rate. I completely agree. My point is certain demographics are going to cop it more than others.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Just have a look at the figures. It's going to be a sliding rate. It's going to go older to younger people. The vaccinated should be fine. Some demographics are going to cop it bad. I am pretty confident over 80 yo no vaccination will have a 5% mortality rate. That was the point I was making. If you disagree cool. It's a random persons Internet opinion of the data. I think I'm pretty conservative if anything. Just to be clear I think I'm downplaying the numbers in that demographic. I think that would be a really good result in the data.

I agree on all your figures and I'm completely cool with it.

I'm not cool with the disinformation. To me it's wrong. I can't keep listening to it. I'll stay out of the moral judgements and I'll just try and provide the facts. People should visit their GP for individual advice. There are also heaps of other options.

I suggest you or anyone watches Gladys press conference today. There is lots of good information there.
 
@hobbo1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437139) said:
@cultured_bogan said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437124) said:
@hobbo1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437026) said:
@demps said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437022) said:
@willow said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437017) said:
@demps said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437014) said:
@willow said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437009) said:
Well, NSW numbers are up again today and it's the same old spiel from Gladys...The lockdown hasn't worked, in so far as she could have, and should have gone harder with it.

I'll be surprised if she relaxes any restrictions next month.

You think we're looking at a long lockdown?

My sister in law has a wedding booked for next month.
Wonder how that'll go...


Hunter/Newcastle entered a 7 snap lockdown.
I have no doubts it will be extended.

I just can't see us getting out of this Demps. Maybe it's just my frustration at the whole thing with the way it's playing out, but it's clear people who have the virus either aren't aware, or don't care because they are still out in the community and it's continuing to spread, which means resources will be spread thinner, reducing their effectiveness.

100%

Rough times ahead.
Craving some normality.

But yeah, people need to follow the rules.

It’ll be a long off season for us footy heads

That's when I do all my bushwalking (when the cricket's not on.)

Just got back from the Falls not long ago. First time down the bottom, an absolutely beautiful spot.

Did you plant a crop ?

Shhh!
 
@mrem said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437100) said:
It might be the elimination strategy is optimal, great we know that for next time.

Honestly mate.I don't get what you are stating. It sounds to me like you think people aren't engaging on this discussion. I believe that this discussion you are stating is happening right now. I suggest you watch the press conference that was on today. Plenty of people are talking about what you are talking about.

I saw the Cumberland Mayor the other day state the lockdowns were stupid.

I saw protestors out in the street the other day.

Do you want to start a rally ? Would that help ? Would you like to get support from here ?

I'm not meaning to be difficult. I just don't see the big issue. I've given my point on this. I don't believe you can turn it into a mathematical formula but I believe that society will not continue to accept lockdowns.

I honestly don't want to be in this discussion though. All I care about is the disinformation being put out. I don't know what to do when it comes to policy. I'd love someone to fix COVID but I don't think COVID cares.
 
@nelson said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437133) said:
Who needs to have a joint discussion about health and the economy? That sounds like something Waleed Aly would say: “we need to have a conversation about this”. Do you think that doesn’t happen at the government departmental level? It happens all the time.

I don't get his argument. Every discussion is like this. How much is it going to cost ?
 
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437147) said:
@tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437090) said:
There is no chance of a 5% death rate.

This isn't what I'm stating. If that is the impression you have I must have incorrectly made my point. I agree there is no way we are getting a 5% death rate. I completely agree. My point is certain demographics are going to cop it more than others.

Fair enough

Just have a look at the figures. It's going to be a sliding rate. It's going to go older to younger people. The vaccinated should be fine. Some demographics are going to cop it bad. I am pretty confident over 80 yo no vaccination will have a 5% mortality rate. If you disagree cool. It's a random persons Internet opinion of the data. I think I'm pretty conservative if anything.

Dont disagree but once you start to stratify into demographics the numbers start to be meaningless. The mortality rate amongst 80yo with pre existing cardio/respiratory would be close to 100%, the mortality rate for 13yo kids is close to zero. Both numbers are meaningless.

The other thing to consider is that regardless of the variant, case numbers and deaths MUST move towards the younger for a number of reasons.

Firstly, worldwide vaccinations have been prioritised based on age and pre-existing conditions. As a result vaccination rates are significantly skewed to the older, meaning a larger percentage of younger people are unvaccinated. As a result, it is a logical consequence that the median age of cases will move to the younger.

The same applies to deaths. It has never been correct that COVID **cant** kill younger people, it just does at significantly lower rate than older people. If the overall percentage of cases skews younger for the reason above, then the percentage of younger deaths will also increase.

Secondly, as vaccination rates increase world wide, mortality rates and death numbers decrease which means that pre-existing conditions are a larger factor in contributing to deaths and therefore this will also cause a natural skew towards the younger (age less of a factor).
 
@trusted_insider said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437077) said:
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437071) said:
At some point though Australia is opening up. Maybe it’s now. Maybe NSW has stuffed it so bad now the government have already given up. I don’t know.

Hope not, that would lead to a **lot** of death.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-05/older-australians-vaccine-hesitancy/100351324

Cliffs: *Only 44 per cent of people aged 70 and over in NSW are fully vaccinated.*

Which clearly spells out what they are pretending doesn’t exist, being the failure of both procurement and roll-out of wanted vaccines.

Three weeks and a couple more for well into the nineties efficacy for the one that we need and about 15 weeks for the one we have and even then it is only recently in adequate supply. Ten weeks for less protection per short term bringing forward of the second dose by a month.

Sure that plenty remember all those front of the queue announcements. I certainly do, but knew they were lies at the time and thus not surprised to find us in lockdown along with another 16 million other Australians.
 
@tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437090) said:
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437082) said:
@trusted_insider said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437077) said:
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437071) said:
At some point though Australia is opening up. Maybe it’s now. Maybe NSW has stuffed it so bad now the government have already given up. I don’t know.

Hope not, that would lead to a **lot** of death.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-05/older-australians-vaccine-hesitancy/100351324

Cliffs: *Only 44 per cent of people aged 70 and over in NSW are fully vaccinated.*

This is my concern. I don't think people are getting it. People are dying with a relative small number of infections that we have now. People are getting very sick.

I've stated that Britain is considered a success story. A counter argument is that they had 100+ daily deaths during the period it's being called a success story.

The good thing is that it's a lot higher percentage over 70 who've now had one dose. 80% have had one dose.

The kicker is the unvaccinated are going to die and it's going to be to me a considerable amount of them. Let's assume you can't get that remaining 20% to get vaccinated. Realistically in that demographic you could easily see a 5% death rate. That is probably on the low side.

This is a disaster that I don't think we will ever see again. I hope we never see it again.

Earl (IMO) you need to chill out a bit about this.

Your main point that misinformation about vaccines is dangerous is 100% correct and I share your opinion that the best way out is large percentage of vaccination.

However, just as you have railed against misinformation and hyperbole by antivaxxers, you need to be accurate in your "facts" as well. There is no chance of a 5% death rate. The maximum mortality rate of Covid (even Delta) is slightly under 1%. The actual mortality rates at the moment are WAY under 1%. As you correctly say, there is approx 100 a day dying ATM in the UK, but for months now their daily case rates have been over 20K (up to 44K). Mortality rates are dropping significantly due to vaccinations (yes I get your point was about unvaccinated) and improved therapeutics.

People are going to die but people die of viruses. In 2017, 1200 people died of Flu in Australia (around 20 a week), it is consistently around 400-500 (10 a week) annually but we never heard about it, its part of life in an urban society. Of course without lockdowns and other measures COVID deaths would have swamped Flu deaths but if we get to 70% vaccination, IMO this virus will start to resemble the flu for annual deaths.

Good to see you back, well sort of, jokingly. Hope that there was nothing too bad that led to your absence.
 
On the roll out does everyone think it's terrible going forward ? I've heard 40 million Pfizer doses this year. That to me would mean every person in Australia should have had the opportunity to be vaccinated this year. Isn't that a success story ?
 
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