Coronavirus Outbreak

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@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437155) said:
@tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437090) said:
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437082) said:
@trusted_insider said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437077) said:
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437071) said:
At some point though Australia is opening up. Maybe it’s now. Maybe NSW has stuffed it so bad now the government have already given up. I don’t know.

Hope not, that would lead to a **lot** of death.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-05/older-australians-vaccine-hesitancy/100351324

Cliffs: *Only 44 per cent of people aged 70 and over in NSW are fully vaccinated.*

This is my concern. I don't think people are getting it. People are dying with a relative small number of infections that we have now. People are getting very sick.

I've stated that Britain is considered a success story. A counter argument is that they had 100+ daily deaths during the period it's being called a success story.

The good thing is that it's a lot higher percentage over 70 who've now had one dose. 80% have had one dose.

The kicker is the unvaccinated are going to die and it's going to be to me a considerable amount of them. Let's assume you can't get that remaining 20% to get vaccinated. Realistically in that demographic you could easily see a 5% death rate. That is probably on the low side.

This is a disaster that I don't think we will ever see again. I hope we never see it again.

Earl (IMO) you need to chill out a bit about this.

Your main point that misinformation about vaccines is dangerous is 100% correct and I share your opinion that the best way out is large percentage of vaccination.

However, just as you have railed against misinformation and hyperbole by antivaxxers, you need to be accurate in your "facts" as well. There is no chance of a 5% death rate. The maximum mortality rate of Covid (even Delta) is slightly under 1%. The actual mortality rates at the moment are WAY under 1%. As you correctly say, there is approx 100 a day dying ATM in the UK, but for months now their daily case rates have been over 20K (up to 44K). Mortality rates are dropping significantly due to vaccinations (yes I get your point was about unvaccinated) and improved therapeutics.

People are going to die but people die of viruses. In 2017, 1200 people died of Flu in Australia (around 20 a week), it is consistently around 400-500 (10 a week) annually but we never heard about it, its part of life in an urban society. Of course without lockdowns and other measures COVID deaths would have swamped Flu deaths but if we get to 70% vaccination, IMO this virus will start to resemble the flu for annual deaths.

Good to see you back, well sort of, jokingly. Hope that there was nothing too bad that led to your absence.

Thank you mate, all is well.
 
FWIW, my 21yo son got his first AZ shot today and he reckons he is sick as a dog (fever, aches, headache).

I get my first Pfizer next month.
 
@tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437090) said:
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437082) said:
@trusted_insider said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437077) said:
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437071) said:
At some point though Australia is opening up. Maybe it’s now. Maybe NSW has stuffed it so bad now the government have already given up. I don’t know.

Hope not, that would lead to a **lot** of death.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-05/older-australians-vaccine-hesitancy/100351324

Cliffs: *Only 44 per cent of people aged 70 and over in NSW are fully vaccinated.*

This is my concern. I don't think people are getting it. People are dying with a relative small number of infections that we have now. People are getting very sick.

I've stated that Britain is considered a success story. A counter argument is that they had 100+ daily deaths during the period it's being called a success story.

The good thing is that it's a lot higher percentage over 70 who've now had one dose. 80% have had one dose.

The kicker is the unvaccinated are going to die and it's going to be to me a considerable amount of them. Let's assume you can't get that remaining 20% to get vaccinated. Realistically in that demographic you could easily see a 5% death rate. That is probably on the low side.

This is a disaster that I don't think we will ever see again. I hope we never see it again.

Earl (IMO) you need to chill out a bit about this.

Your main point that misinformation about vaccines is dangerous is 100% correct and I share your opinion that the best way out is large percentage of vaccination.

However, just as you have railed against misinformation and hyperbole by antivaxxers, you need to be accurate in your "facts" as well. There is no chance of a 5% death rate. The maximum mortality rate of Covid (even Delta) is slightly under 1%. The actual mortality rates at the moment are WAY under 1%. As you correctly say, there is approx 100 a day dying ATM in the UK, but for months now their daily case rates have been over 20K (up to 44K). Mortality rates are dropping significantly due to vaccinations (yes I get your point was about unvaccinated) and improved therapeutics.

People are going to die but people die of viruses. In 2017, 1200 people died of Flu in Australia (around 20 a week), it is consistently around 400-500 (10 a week) annually but we never heard about it, its part of life in an urban society. Of course without lockdowns and other measures COVID deaths would have swamped Flu deaths but if we get to 70% vaccination, IMO this virus will start to resemble the flu for annual deaths.

70% plus of **total** population might get us there or at least approaching it, but not solely of adults alone for mine.

Are you aware of the latest on Ivermectin (a drug which the clinical evidence shows is not statistically effective) as I haven't seen much on it lately, any change?
 
@tony-soprano said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437123) said:
@papacito said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437107) said:
@magpies1963 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437096) said:
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1435753) said:
Without getting political about it, I think that the proposal to provide $300 for everyone who comes forward to get vaccinated by December 1st would be money well spent and likely not only bring forward many that would not get vaccinated otherwise, but saving the nation many more billions whilst bringing the nation back quicker, both health and economy wise with a brighter Xmas to boot.

Incentives will almost certainly come at some point and I say that there is no time like the present, providing of course there is the supply. Of course early adopters should not be discriminated.

$300 for hesitant or anti-vaccers is a great idea.
$150 for 1st jab then $150 for 2nd jab to make sure they are fully vaccinated.

I know more than a few people who'd go from anti-vax to vaccinated almost overnight if $300 was on offer.

350 and u have a deal

🙂
 
@tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437160) said:
FWIW, my 21yo son got his first AZ shot today and he reckons he is sick as a dog (fever, aches, headache).

I get my first Pfizer next month.

Make sure he closely monitors the headaches and gets a blood test if they are persistent. My GP said they are one of the warning signs of the clotting disorder that they are looking out for. The disorder can be detected by a blood test and treated in the usual manner of clotting disorders, with generally good outcomes if detected early. All the best to him and I hope it's just an ordinary vaccine response.
 
![218271442_10159410256193252_6025954262140792300_n.jpeg](/assets/uploads/files/1628229148922-218271442_10159410256193252_6025954262140792300_n.jpeg)
 
@nelson said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437133) said:
@mrem said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437100) said:
I'll answer both here.
I think I have made my views pretty clear, but I'll state them here .

I believe policy decisions should be made from the best available evidence. The Covid response is more than just Covid deaths per million. It is about how our lives are affected by it holistically. Simply correlating one variable against another is not strong evidence, don't take my word on this, there a multiple textbooks on this stuff. There are some simple control variables that one could use and the data has a high degree of accuracy. I believe including sensible control variables would improve the outcomes of the model significantly.

It is my opinion that the public discourse is overly simplistic, which can ultimately drive policy responses. These policy responses might be popular but sub-optimal. My opinion is that we should take into account all the evidence. I think there is reasonable evidence that a relationship exists between economic activity and health outcomes, therefore we need to have a joint discussion about the economy and health because they are linked. Stating that it is health vs the economy is completely ignorant of the data. I think there is a relationship between harsh lockdowns and mental health, which can have very long-term implications.

I also think there is an inter-temporal issue at play too. Elimination might be a great strategy in the short-run but mitigation might be better in the long-run.

It might be the elimination strategy is optimal, great we know that for next time. But what if it is not optimal? If it is sub-optimal, people will be dying unnecessarily. It is my opinion that we will never know unless we are able to ask hard questions and challenge the status quo.

Saying that policy responses should be based on the "best available evidence" is just a truism. You don't know what they are basing policy decisions on as the decisions are being made at the cabinet or cabinet committee level. They are undoubtedly getting advice from a range of departments, including Treasury (who advise on everything). They would be doing modelling that would look at a broad range of variables. There are numerous actuaries within the bureaucracy that know what they're doing.

Who needs to have a joint discussion about health and the economy? That sounds like something Waleed Aly would say: "we need to have a conversation about this". Do you think that doesn't happen at the government departmental level? It happens all the time. What is the point of public discourse about it unless the public chooses to adequately inform itself so that it can meaningfully contribute. Part of the reason we have elected representatives is so that they can be across these issues and make informed decisions on our behalf.

The government will be getting quality advice from the bureaucracy that covers a broad range of considerations. They will be getting high quality modelling. At the end of the day though they will make political decisions because they are politicians. Their previous actions will inform their future actions because they concern themselves with self-preservation. They will be influenced by the perceived likelihood of electoral outcomes flowing from their decisions. Some of them will not be able to stomach the certainty of immediate loss of life vs the possibility of larger losses in the future. That is just the nature of politics.

Of course governments get advice from a broad range of experts, but that doesn't mean that policy actions are inline with the best evidence. I know that Treasury modeling can be influenced by the politicians who commission the research. These parameters can be set by ideology rather than the best evidence. This is why Treasury can give different predictions depending on who is in power. You might be OK with that but I am not.

You do realise the public is not a single entity? Some may chose to adequately inform themselves others may not. Our elected officials will vote along party lines. They might not necessarily vote in the best interests of their electorate.

My comments around health and the economy were aimed at those that have stated we have to chose between the two. It is obviously not clear to some that the two are linked, which is why I think the public discourse needs to improve.

I agree with your final paragraph and shows why the best available evidence and policy can diverge. Policy will be affected by the public discourse, if the public discourse is based on spurious relationships, then policy will be shaped by it. Again you might be OK with it but I am not.
 
@formerguest said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437164) said:
@tiger5150 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437090) said:
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437082) said:
@trusted_insider said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437077) said:
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437071) said:
At some point though Australia is opening up. Maybe it’s now. Maybe NSW has stuffed it so bad now the government have already given up. I don’t know.

Hope not, that would lead to a **lot** of death.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-05/older-australians-vaccine-hesitancy/100351324

Cliffs: *Only 44 per cent of people aged 70 and over in NSW are fully vaccinated.*

This is my concern. I don't think people are getting it. People are dying with a relative small number of infections that we have now. People are getting very sick.

I've stated that Britain is considered a success story. A counter argument is that they had 100+ daily deaths during the period it's being called a success story.

The good thing is that it's a lot higher percentage over 70 who've now had one dose. 80% have had one dose.

The kicker is the unvaccinated are going to die and it's going to be to me a considerable amount of them. Let's assume you can't get that remaining 20% to get vaccinated. Realistically in that demographic you could easily see a 5% death rate. That is probably on the low side.

This is a disaster that I don't think we will ever see again. I hope we never see it again.

Earl (IMO) you need to chill out a bit about this.

Your main point that misinformation about vaccines is dangerous is 100% correct and I share your opinion that the best way out is large percentage of vaccination.

However, just as you have railed against misinformation and hyperbole by antivaxxers, you need to be accurate in your "facts" as well. There is no chance of a 5% death rate. The maximum mortality rate of Covid (even Delta) is slightly under 1%. The actual mortality rates at the moment are WAY under 1%. As you correctly say, there is approx 100 a day dying ATM in the UK, but for months now their daily case rates have been over 20K (up to 44K). Mortality rates are dropping significantly due to vaccinations (yes I get your point was about unvaccinated) and improved therapeutics.

People are going to die but people die of viruses. In 2017, 1200 people died of Flu in Australia (around 20 a week), it is consistently around 400-500 (10 a week) annually but we never heard about it, its part of life in an urban society. Of course without lockdowns and other measures COVID deaths would have swamped Flu deaths but if we get to 70% vaccination, IMO this virus will start to resemble the flu for annual deaths.

70% plus of **total** population might get us there or at least approaching it, but not solely of adults alone for mine.

Maybe....maybe not. Depends on a whole different discussion. How many deaths a day/week/year are we prepared to live with? That was the purpose of throwing in the Flu comparison. Its a discussion that is coming. 500 a year? 1000? Zero? Whilst we have daily updates and counters, we are never returning to normal.

First things first.....vaccinations

Are you aware of the latest on Ivermectin (a drug which the clinical evidence shows is not statistically effective) as I haven't seen much on it lately, any change?

Not really any change. many studies coming out. Its a funny thing this Ivermectin (a drug which the clinical evidence shows is not statistically effective). I am seeing scientists that I deeply respect coming out in strong support of it (**NOT** Robert Malone or Steve Kirsch) and also sensible scientists pouring cold water on it. For mine the narrative is always the same on both sides. Those for it point to Tess Lowries Meta Analysis and say.."look at the data, its a very effective prophylactic as well as treatment". On the other side the comment is always a version of "The studies are not large enough numbers/double blind etc". The argument against is that the *quality* of the studies is not high enough (based on convention) but the argument is not that the results arent positive.

What sums it up for me was Eric Topol who TORE APART the Ivermectin (a drug which the clinical evidence shows is not statistically effective) argument but ended by saying "I think that there is a very strong signal within the data that it might be effective". There is a lot of argument of semantics.

Personally Ive given up that Ivermectin (a drug which the clinical evidence shows is not statistically effective) will a widely used solution. Having said that, my friend in Hungary that was in ICU with Covid told me that his recovery started with Ivermectin (a drug which the clinical evidence shows is not statistically effective).
 
Hopefully this one might be OK

https://amp.9news.com.au/article/022d09f5-6cd3-47b1-8689-13ceafbe841c?ocid=Social-9NewsS&__twitter_impression=true
 
![FA9614EA-5352-4357-9D18-437C91E2993D.jpeg](/assets/uploads/files/1628230434746-fa9614ea-5352-4357-9d18-437c91e2993d.jpeg)
 
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437150) said:
@mrem said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437100) said:
It might be the elimination strategy is optimal, great we know that for next time.

Honestly mate.I don't get what you are stating. It sounds to me like you think people aren't engaging on this discussion. I believe that this discussion you are stating is happening right now. I suggest you watch the press conference that was on today. Plenty of people are talking about what you are talking about.

I saw the Cumberland Mayor the other day state the lockdowns were stupid.

I saw protestors out in the street the other day.

Do you want to start a rally ? Would that help ? Would you like to get support from here ?

I'm not meaning to be difficult. I just don't see the big issue. I've given my point on this. I don't believe you can turn it into a mathematical formula but I believe that society will not continue to accept lockdowns.

I honestly don't want to be in this discussion though. All I care about is the disinformation being put out. I don't know what to do when it comes to policy. I'd love someone to fix COVID but I don't think COVID cares.

What would be the theme of my rally? Better education for all? Stop out politicians from acting myopically? Not sure many people would attend. It would have to be a Zoom rally though.

I don't like disinformation being put out either. That is why I am against simple summary statistics being paraded as some sort of proof.

I guess we will leave it at that mate.
 
@jadtiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437134) said:
@sco77y said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437131) said:
I went out to grab a burger for lunch, and while I was waiting there a guy started on a tirade to someone he was talking to on the phone about COVID and the government.

He thought he was some sort of Italian gangster, saying that he knew people on the inside of government, and that "something is going down real soon", a scam, officials exposed etc..

Scarily though, when he got off the phone (he was talking very loudly) two strangers also waiting there engaged him with approval, and then they all started having a big chat about COVID being the world's biggest scam.

Some takeaways:

- The virus isn't real
- The vaccines are untested and don't work in the same way 'normal' vaccines do (they infect your bloodstream. apparently)
- They feel sorry for those who have been vaccinated "it's not their fault, they just haven't done their own research and do anything the government tells them"
- And the guy on the phone saying that the vaccines are essentially bugged - being used so that the government can track us (to which even the other idiots in agreeance to this point looked a little uncomfortable).

Longest wait for a burger I've ever had.


At least you had a comedy routine on loudspeaker while you waited.Its a pity you didnt record it and put it on the web to show the world what cretins these people are.

You'd think it was set up, it was so blatantly idiotic.
 
@sco77y said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437195) said:
@jadtiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437134) said:
@sco77y said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437131) said:
I went out to grab a burger for lunch, and while I was waiting there a guy started on a tirade to someone he was talking to on the phone about COVID and the government.

He thought he was some sort of Italian gangster, saying that he knew people on the inside of government, and that "something is going down real soon", a scam, officials exposed etc..

Scarily though, when he got off the phone (he was talking very loudly) two strangers also waiting there engaged him with approval, and then they all started having a big chat about COVID being the world's biggest scam.

Some takeaways:

- The virus isn't real
- The vaccines are untested and don't work in the same way 'normal' vaccines do (they infect your bloodstream. apparently)
- They feel sorry for those who have been vaccinated "it's not their fault, they just haven't done their own research and do anything the government tells them"
- And the guy on the phone saying that the vaccines are essentially bugged - being used so that the government can track us (to which even the other idiots in agreeance to this point looked a little uncomfortable).

Longest wait for a burger I've ever had.


At least you had a comedy routine on loudspeaker while you waited.Its a pity you didnt record it and put it on the web to show the world what cretins these people are.

You'd think it was set up, it was so blatantly idiotic.

So the burgers weren't better at HJ's ?????
 
@sco77y said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437131) said:
I went out to grab a burger for lunch, and while I was waiting there a guy started on a tirade to someone he was talking to on the phone about COVID and the government.

He thought he was some sort of Italian gangster, saying that he knew people on the inside of government, and that "something is going down real soon", a scam, officials exposed etc..

Scarily though, when he got off the phone (he was talking very loudly) two strangers also waiting there engaged him with approval, and then they all started having a big chat about COVID being the world's biggest scam.

Some takeaways:

- The virus isn't real
- The vaccines are untested and don't work in the same way 'normal' vaccines do (they infect your bloodstream. apparently)
- They feel sorry for those who have been vaccinated "it's not their fault, they just haven't done their own research and do anything the government tells them"
- And the guy on the phone saying that the vaccines are essentially bugged - being used so that the government can track us (to which even the other idiots in agreeance to this point looked a little uncomfortable).

Longest wait for a burger I've ever had.

The best one is the first one.
THE VIRUS ISNT REAL.
I hope and pray for that clown not to ever get the virus.
I can tell him for a fact that he wont be thinking its
fake if he gets it.
 
@sco77y said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437131) said:
I went out to grab a burger for lunch, and while I was waiting there a guy started on a tirade to someone he was talking to on the phone about COVID and the government.

He thought he was some sort of Italian gangster, saying that he knew people on the inside of government, and that "something is going down real soon", a scam, officials exposed etc..

Scarily though, when he got off the phone (he was talking very loudly) two strangers also waiting there engaged him with approval, and then they all started having a big chat about COVID being the world's biggest scam.

Some takeaways:

- The virus isn't real
- The vaccines are untested and don't work in the same way 'normal' vaccines do (they infect your bloodstream. apparently)
- They feel sorry for those who have been vaccinated "it's not their fault, they just haven't done their own research and do anything the government tells them"
- And the guy on the phone saying that the vaccines are essentially bugged - being used so that the government can track us (to which even the other idiots in agreeance to this point looked a little uncomfortable).

Longest wait for a burger I've ever had.

Tracked..? These mental midgets were using a phone..
 
@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437151) said:
@nelson said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437133) said:
Who needs to have a joint discussion about health and the economy? That sounds like something Waleed Aly would say: “we need to have a conversation about this”. Do you think that doesn’t happen at the government departmental level? It happens all the time.

I don't get his argument. Every discussion is like this. How much is it going to cost ?


I have a friend like that everything is all about money.Too expensive to fix climate change and too expensive to give vaccines to all who need it.He got his vaccine as quickly as he could though.
 
Welcome back @Tiger5150
Your presence has been missed, especially in this thread.

Looking forward to you dropping some more knowledge on us rookies!
 
@swag_tiger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1437268) said:
A 64 year old women who died in the new wave caught it from a nurse who wasn't vaccinated.

It’s ridiculous that medical workers ain’t vaccinated
 
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