Coronavirus Outbreak

[TillLindemann]

As the resident Negative Nancy, I think if covid has not been eliminated and we open up, even with 70% vaccination rates, it will be a disaster for our health system. It is all well and good to say the unvaccinated chose their fate, but if the health system can't cope it means anyone who is sick for any reason suffers.

In UK where 70% of the population has had at least one jab there were 23,000 new cases and 146 covid deaths yesterday. Israel at 65% (with a population only one third of our population) had 4,000 new cases and 12 new deaths. America at 60% had 101,000 new cases and 657 new deaths yesterday.

So if we plan to emulate the UK, adjusted for population we are looking at maybe 10,000 new cases and 60 new covid deaths every day. I can't believe people are advocating this, when a couple of months ago we had it at effectively zero, and New Zealand still has it at zero.

Go hard, do proper lockdowns, harder but shorter instead of dragged out weak ones, and try to eliminate it.

 

[Tiger5150]

A lot of younger people are opting for AZ. ***Those who are under 60 and without medical conditions need to get the AZ.*** You shouldn't have to make the choice but that is the reality of the situation.

Strongly disagree with this.

The Government recommendations ***were*** (and remain outside of NSW) that those under 60 should not get AZ due to the slightly increased risk of clots.

For me, its a different reason. Both AZ and Pfizer provide around 95% protection against death, both provide around 85% protection against significant illness (hospitalisation) and there is nothing between them, however there is a massive difference between them when it comes to prevention of contracting Delta. AZ is around 65% and Pfizer is around 85%. For me its an easy decision and a decision that I need to be selfish about. I hate when people say that "people should get the AZ quickly for the good of society". I am making the decision to get vaccinated on behalf of other people ,I am making the decision to get Pfizer for me and its no one elses business.

 

[Mighty_Tiger]

Reckon we are heading to 500 plus cases a day by next Friday the 20th unless some reasonable change is made, and interested in others thoughts?

Its entirely possible but as I said recently in another post, the case numbers are not increasing exponentially and are staying reasonably stable, maybe slowly increasing linearly. The lockdown is at least doing a job of stopping that exponential rate of growth but the more it spreads geographically, the harder to contain obviously.

Some positive to come out of Gladys today. They reckon we will be at 70% vaxxed by end of October and then will open the doors. THat seems doable.

The biggest risk to all will be how Gladys is talking about areas being relaxed in sydney right in the middle of things. How they can police it would be near impossible and with how this spreads numbers will spike.

Be interesting if she opens it up at 70% single vaccinated, on current run rates it will be close. Double vaccinated will struggle to be at 50% by then plus the recommended duration post 2nd shot.

 

[TillLindemann]

A lot of younger people are opting for AZ. Those who are under 60 and without medical conditions need to get the AZ. You shouldn't have to make the choice but that is the reality of the situation.

I think AZ has been unfairly maligned, it is perfectly safe.

 

[Tiger5150]

Reckon we are heading to 500 plus cases a day by next Friday the 20th unless some reasonable change is made, and interested in others thoughts?

Its entirely possible but as I said recently in another post, the case numbers are not increasing exponentially and are staying reasonably stable, maybe slowly increasing linearly. The lockdown is at least doing a job of stopping that exponential rate of growth but the more it spreads geographically, the harder to contain obviously.

Some positive to come out of Gladys today. They reckon we will be at 70% vaxxed by end of October and then will open the doors. THat seems doable.

The biggest risk to all will be how Gladys is talking about areas being relaxed in sydney right in the middle of things. How they can police it would be near impossible and with how this spreads numbers will spike.

Be interesting if she opens it up at 70% single vaccinated, on current run rates it will be close. Double vaccinated will struggle to be at 50% by then plus the recommended duration post 2nd shot.

I think she meant fully vaxxed

 

[Tim Sheens]

Great approach by the Queensland health team, with Pfizer just opened to all over 16yo as I type.

Might be "open" to them, but is it available? Isnt availability the big issues with Pfizer?

I think that I heard an extra 150k openings had been made available there due to the early allocation of million/s from the company.

This is what I dont understand. Another 150K openings? For 16yo's? Ive been waiting weeks and still have 3 weeks to go. Why not bring forward the jab for older people?

I dont know this for sure but what it seems to me is that people do the right thing and make a booking for it and book a place for weeks in advance, then someone kicks up a fuss or an employer "needs" it for staff and it gets prioritised whereas everyday people in catagories that need it, who do the right thing get pushed back on the list.

Yeah, seems so, refreshing the page, doing this and that and apparently getting way ahead of others waiting up to months.

As per way above, I got mine on Monday having booked as soon as it opened up to my age bracket, whilst others did so later and received theirs earlier. Oh well, at least I got to keep my appointment, as thousands from the week prior got booted.

Woke up feeling a lot better today.

 

[Pascoes_barber]

As the resident Negative Nancy, I think if covid has not been eliminated and we open up, even with 70% vaccination rates, it will be a disaster for our health system. It is all well and good to say the unvaccinated chose their fate, but if the health system can't cope it means anyone who is sick for any reason suffers.

In UK where 70% of the population has had at least one jab there were 23,000 new cases and 146 covid deaths yesterday. Israel at 65% (with a population only one third of our population) had 4,000 new cases and 12 new deaths. America at 60% had 101,000 new cases and 657 new deaths yesterday.

So if we plan to emulate the UK, adjusted for population **we are looking at maybe 10,000 new cases and 60 new covid deaths every day**. I can't believe people are advocating this, when a couple of months ago we had it at effectively zero, and New Zealand still has it at zero.

What are these numbers based on?

I posted the Doherty Institute modelling the other day. The numbers are nowhere near that high.


EDIT to provide the links again:
https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/doherty-institute-modelling-report-for-national-cabinet

http://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/content_doc/DohertyModelling_NationalPlan_including_adendmum.pdf

 

[Papacito]

Reckon we are heading to 500 plus cases a day by next Friday the 20th unless some reasonable change is made, and interested in others thoughts?

Its entirely possible but as I said recently in another post, the case numbers are not increasing exponentially and are staying reasonably stable, maybe slowly increasing linearly. The lockdown is at least doing a job of stopping that exponential rate of growth but the more it spreads geographically, the harder to contain obviously.

Some positive to come out of Gladys today. They reckon we will be at 70% vaxxed by end of October and then will open the doors. THat seems doable.

Growth has averaged out at 5% per day over the past month.

Obviously not an exponential increase in rate of growth, but certainly in case numbers (5% increase on 1,000 cases is a lot more than 5% increase on 10 cases).

That's a huge overload on contact tracing 9which is already way harder due to delta) and hospitals, because you can't scale their capacity at the same rate.

Not my modelling below - but that takes us to 1k daily cases by the end of August.


Fingers crossed that with luck, vax rates and other controls, thge numbers come down

 

[TillLindemann]

As the resident Negative Nancy, I think if covid has not been eliminated and we open up, even with 70% vaccination rates, it will be a disaster for our health system. It is all well and good to say the unvaccinated chose their fate, but if the health system can't cope it means anyone who is sick for any reason suffers.

In UK where 70% of the population has had at least one jab there were 23,000 new cases and 146 covid deaths yesterday. Israel at 65% (with a population only one third of our population) had 4,000 new cases and 12 new deaths. America at 60% had 101,000 new cases and 657 new deaths yesterday.

So if we plan to emulate the UK, adjusted for population **we are looking at maybe 10,000 new cases and 60 new covid deaths every day**. I can't believe people are advocating this, when a couple of months ago we had it at effectively zero, and New Zealand still has it at zero.

What are these numbers based on?

I posted the Doherty Institute modelling the other day. The numbers are nowhere near that high.

Based on the UK's numbers, reduced to account for our smaller population.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

A lot of younger people are opting for AZ. ***Those who are under 60 and without medical conditions need to get the AZ.*** You shouldn't have to make the choice but that is the reality of the situation.

Strongly disagree with this.

The Government recommendations ***were*** (and remain outside of NSW) that those under 60 should not get AZ due to the slightly increased risk of clots.

For me, its a different reason. Both AZ and Pfizer provide around 95% protection against death, both provide around 85% protection against significant illness (hospitalisation) and there is nothing between them, however there is a massive difference between them when it comes to prevention of contracting Delta. AZ is around 65% and Pfizer is around 85%. For me its an easy decision and a decision that I need to be selfish about. I hate when people say that "people should get the AZ quickly for the good of society". I am making the decision to get vaccinated on behalf of other people ,I am making the decision to get Pfizer for me and its no one elses business.

Perhaps it is my former occupation but it is not all about me.

 

[cochise]

A lot of younger people are opting for AZ. ***Those who are under 60 and without medical conditions need to get the AZ.*** You shouldn't have to make the choice but that is the reality of the situation.

Strongly disagree with this.

The Government recommendations ***were*** (and remain outside of NSW) that those under 60 should not get AZ due to the slightly increased risk of clots.

For me, its a different reason. Both AZ and Pfizer provide around 95% protection against death, both provide around 85% protection against significant illness (hospitalisation) and there is nothing between them, however there is a massive difference between them when it comes to prevention of contracting Delta. AZ is around 65% and Pfizer is around 85%. For me its an easy decision and a decision that I need to be selfish about. I hate when people say that "people should get the AZ quickly for the good of society". I am making the decision to get vaccinated on behalf of other people ,I am making the decision to get Pfizer for me and its no one elses business.

Perhaps it is my former occupation but it is not all about me.

He actually said he was getting vaccinated for other people.

 

[Pascoes_barber]

As the resident Negative Nancy, I think if covid has not been eliminated and we open up, even with 70% vaccination rates, it will be a disaster for our health system. It is all well and good to say the unvaccinated chose their fate, but if the health system can't cope it means anyone who is sick for any reason suffers.

In UK where 70% of the population has had at least one jab there were 23,000 new cases and 146 covid deaths yesterday. Israel at 65% (with a population only one third of our population) had 4,000 new cases and 12 new deaths. America at 60% had 101,000 new cases and 657 new deaths yesterday.

So if we plan to emulate the UK, adjusted for population **we are looking at maybe 10,000 new cases and 60 new covid deaths every day**. I can't believe people are advocating this, when a couple of months ago we had it at effectively zero, and New Zealand still has it at zero.

What are these numbers based on?

I posted the Doherty Institute modelling the other day. The numbers are nowhere near that high.

Based on the UK's numbers, reduced to account for our smaller population.

They are only just nudging 60% fully vaccinated and still recovering from massive infection rates due to their appalling response to the pandemic. Much different to the 70% fully vaccinated target Australia needs to hit before considering 'opening up' and 'almost eradicated' approach we've taken in our response.

Very different climate/population density and lifestyle there too.

Go and read the modelling that was provided to Nat Cab (I have since edited my previous post and provided the links again) - you will feel better about our situation.

 

[Tiger5150]

A lot of younger people are opting for AZ. ***Those who are under 60 and without medical conditions need to get the AZ.*** You shouldn't have to make the choice but that is the reality of the situation.

Strongly disagree with this.

The Government recommendations ***were*** (and remain outside of NSW) that those under 60 should not get AZ due to the slightly increased risk of clots.

For me, its a different reason. Both AZ and Pfizer provide around 95% protection against death, both provide around 85% protection against significant illness (hospitalisation) and there is nothing between them, however there is a massive difference between them when it comes to prevention of contracting Delta. AZ is around 65% and Pfizer is around 85%. For me its an easy decision and a decision that I need to be selfish about. I hate when people say that "people should get the AZ quickly for the good of society". I am making the decision to get vaccinated on behalf of other people ,I am making the decision to get Pfizer for me and its no one elses business.

Perhaps it is my former occupation but it is not all about me.

If it was all about me I might not get the jab. Everyone has to make the correct decisions on a population and individual basis. I am getting vaccinated for others. I am getting Pfizer for myself. I dont understand the problem.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

A lot of younger people are opting for AZ. ***Those who are under 60 and without medical conditions need to get the AZ.*** You shouldn't have to make the choice but that is the reality of the situation.

Strongly disagree with this.

The Government recommendations ***were*** (and remain outside of NSW) that those under 60 should not get AZ due to the slightly increased risk of clots.

For me, its a different reason. Both AZ and Pfizer provide around 95% protection against death, both provide around 85% protection against significant illness (hospitalisation) and there is nothing between them, however there is a massive difference between them when it comes to prevention of contracting Delta. AZ is around 65% and Pfizer is around 85%. For me its an easy decision and a decision that I need to be selfish about. I hate when people say that "people should get the AZ quickly for the good of society". I am making the decision to get vaccinated on behalf of other people ,I am making the decision to get Pfizer for me and its no one elses business.

Perhaps it is my former occupation but it is not all about me.

He actually said he was getting vaccinated for other people.

That's true. I am eligible for Pfizer but opted for AZ for obvious reasons.

 

[TillLindemann]

As the resident Negative Nancy, I think if covid has not been eliminated and we open up, even with 70% vaccination rates, it will be a disaster for our health system. It is all well and good to say the unvaccinated chose their fate, but if the health system can't cope it means anyone who is sick for any reason suffers.

In UK where 70% of the population has had at least one jab there were 23,000 new cases and 146 covid deaths yesterday. Israel at 65% (with a population only one third of our population) had 4,000 new cases and 12 new deaths. America at 60% had 101,000 new cases and 657 new deaths yesterday.

So if we plan to emulate the UK, adjusted for population **we are looking at maybe 10,000 new cases and 60 new covid deaths every day**. I can't believe people are advocating this, when a couple of months ago we had it at effectively zero, and New Zealand still has it at zero.

What are these numbers based on?

I posted the Doherty Institute modelling the other day. The numbers are nowhere near that high.

Based on the UK's numbers, reduced to account for our smaller population.

They are only just nudging 60% fully vaccinated and still recovering from massive infection rates due to their appalling response to the pandemic. Much different to the 70% fully vaccinated target Australia needs to hit before considering 'opening up' and 'almost eradicated' approach we've taken in our response.

Very different climate/population density and lifestyle there too.

Go and read the modelling that was provided to Nat Cab (I have since edited my previous post and provided the links again) - you will feel better about our situation.

Thank you, just saw your links, no doubt they are an improvement on my ten second back of the envelope figures.

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

A lot of younger people are opting for AZ. ***Those who are under 60 and without medical conditions need to get the AZ.*** You shouldn't have to make the choice but that is the reality of the situation.

Strongly disagree with this.

The Government recommendations ***were*** (and remain outside of NSW) that those under 60 should not get AZ due to the slightly increased risk of clots.

For me, its a different reason. Both AZ and Pfizer provide around 95% protection against death, both provide around 85% protection against significant illness (hospitalisation) and there is nothing between them, however there is a massive difference between them when it comes to prevention of contracting Delta. AZ is around 65% and Pfizer is around 85%. For me its an easy decision and a decision that I need to be selfish about. I hate when people say that "people should get the AZ quickly for the good of society". I am making the decision to get vaccinated on behalf of other people ,I am making the decision to get Pfizer for me and its no one elses business.

Perhaps it is my former occupation but it is not all about me.

He has made an active decision to choose a vaccine that will make contraction of delta more difficult, ergo less likely for him to be a danger to others. How can you construe that as selfish?

 

[Tiger5150]

As the resident Negative Nancy, I think if covid has not been eliminated and we open up, even with 70% vaccination rates, it will be a disaster for our health system. It is all well and good to say the unvaccinated chose their fate, but if the health system can't cope it means anyone who is sick for any reason suffers.

In UK where 70% of the population has had at least one jab there were 23,000 new cases and 146 covid deaths yesterday. Israel at 65% (with a population only one third of our population) had 4,000 new cases and 12 new deaths. America at 60% had 101,000 new cases and 657 new deaths yesterday.

So if we plan to emulate the UK, adjusted for population **we are looking at maybe 10,000 new cases and 60 new covid deaths every day**. I can't believe people are advocating this, when a couple of months ago we had it at effectively zero, and New Zealand still has it at zero.

What are these numbers based on?

I posted the Doherty Institute modelling the other day. The numbers are nowhere near that high.

Based on the UK's numbers, reduced to account for our smaller population.

They are only just nudging 60% fully vaccinated and still recovering from massive infection rates due to their appalling response to the pandemic. Much different to the 70% fully vaccinated target Australia needs to hit before considering 'opening up' and 'almost eradicated' approach we've taken in our response.

Very different climate/population density and lifestyle there too.

Go and read the modelling that was provided to Nat Cab (I have since edited my previous post and provided the links again) - you will feel better about our situation.

UK vax numbers are high (relative to the rest of the world). Death rates are around mid 80's per day (7 day rolling average). Death rates in the UK for Influenza on an annual basis average mid 60's per day. It is getting to the point where it is a normal transmissble disease in the UK and life will return to "normal".

For the millionth time, I am not equating COVID and Influenza, but this is the future for all of us

 

[earl]

A lot of younger people are opting for AZ. Those who are under 60 and without medical conditions need to get the AZ. You shouldn't have to make the choice but that is the reality of the situation.

You do have some options.

If you are over 60 (maybe 50) you should be getting the AZ.

If you are under 60 then the situation changes. Most of the blood clotting issues appear to be in females. My daughter is 20 (it's her 20th birthday today) she is getting the Pfizer and waiting until September for her first shot. I'm actually glad of this. She doesn't really leave the house. You'd have to take a risk assessment based on how often you are going out and your risk profile in relation to something bad happening from getting vaccinated.

Individually though you are crazy to think that you aren't getting COVID at some point. You either get a nice little helper from the vaccine or you take your chances.

It's like clock work though. The unvaccinated are the ones who will die and get sick.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

A lot of younger people are opting for AZ. Those who are under 60 and without medical conditions need to get the AZ. You shouldn't have to make the choice but that is the reality of the situation.

You do have some options.

If you are over 60 (maybe 50) you should be getting the AZ.

If you are under 60 then the situation changes. Most of the blood clotting issues appear to be in females. My daughter is 20 (it's her 20th birthday today) she is getting the Pfizer and waiting until September for her first shot. I'm actually glad of this. She doesn't really leave the house. You'd have to take a risk assessment based on how often you are going out and your risk profile in relation to something bad happening from getting vaccinated.

Individually though you are crazy to think that you aren't getting COVID at some point. You either get a nice little helper from the vaccine or you take your chances.

It's like clock work though. The unvaccinated are the ones who will die and get sick.

Good post. I opted for AZ as the only available vaccine. I am older and to see younger couples and singles opting for AZ was uplifting. Mind you I don't believe we should have had to make the choice but that is the situation in which we find ourselves. My parents are in their 80s and both opted for AZ. My sister, brother in law and her children are all medical professionals and opted for AZ.

 

[tigger]

Mmk...

Likely for some Newcastle/Hunter lockdowns to be extended today, allegedly.

I think once summer hits, it's going to be extremely hard to keep people inside and not going to the beach.

Should be a rush to get this sorted as best they can before summer, IMO.

The cutoff points for the Hunter lockdowns were weird, ending at Muswellbrook and not including Aberdeen or Scone was a mistake and I would expect that to be extended.

Yeah, pretty weird...
I'm reading they'll extend lockdowns 2 weeks.
Likely, later today.

Feel sorry for everyone impacted, across the country.

Will be announced at 11 mate

Mmk...

Likely for some Newcastle/Hunter lockdowns to be extended today, allegedly.

I think once summer hits, it's going to be extremely hard to keep people inside and not going to the beach.

Should be a rush to get this sorted as best they can before summer, IMO.

The cutoff points for the Hunter lockdowns were weird, ending at Muswellbrook and not including Aberdeen or Scone was a mistake and I would expect that to be extended.

Yeah, pretty weird...
I'm reading they'll extend lockdowns 2 weeks.
Likely, later today.

Feel sorry for everyone impacted, across the country.

Will be announced at 11 mate

Indeed.

I'll put on that Covid-19 channel on Foxtel and see what they have to say.

Hope you're holding up well Cochise.

Finding it tough, 7 weeks in. Its really hard for my daughter, it is getting to her and she was begging me last night to let her go to school for just one day. She is 8 and hasn't played with another kid for 7 weeks, it really is a little heart breaking to see the negative impact it is having on her.

That's rough.
There is no replacing the social aspect of schooling.
Hoping it works its self out soon.

The iPad and messenger for kids works a treat but isn't the same.

Yeah, I always said I wouldn't get her an ipad but relented for that very reason. Been buying things like totem tennis and things to keep her busy, but its hard when she is by herself and only has me to play with.

100%
You're aware but just a reminder, you're not the only one feeling this way. Hard time for all, unfortunately.

These lockdowns are isolating and no surprise the mental health hospitals and services are getting smashed.

Hope everyone's handling it the best they can, utilising whatever they have inside their homes to keep busy and keep their mind active.

This is a challenge and hopefully we'll all be stronger after conquering it.

Inbox is open for anyone feeling they need a chat.

Thanks mate, I'm actually feeling a lot better than I did last week.

Just going to jump in and say I completely understand how you feel. We have a 5 year old who has an anxiety disorder so he is really feeling it. He just wants to play all the time with me and we have really had to adjust our expectations around technology at home. We also have an 8 week old who has barely seen anyone outside the 3 of us since he was born. The kids are feeling this the most.

I'm not a big supporter of tech for kids, I don't like my daughter to have a lot of screen time. That has changed during the past 7 weeks, it is her connection to the outside world. We have a pretty good routine going now which I think it important. We spread he home learning out like it is school day with lunch and recess breaks and allow her to play inbetween. That works really well for my daughter and keeps her engaged.

I spent 20 years as a teacher and school principal and will state for everyone that the learning isn't important at the moment, don't worry about how much you are achieving or if you are completing everything. Routine and mental health is important for both yourself and your children, making them feel safe and secure is of the utmost importance through all this. What works for my family may be totally different for what works in yours. It is hard and everyone's tensions are frayed, including your kids, look after each other and everyone will get through this.

My daughter just told me she has had enough of me and my music lol.

I'm actually considering buying an electronic drum kit haha so I can bash away frustrations without annoying everyone.

I have a real drum kit so annoy my neighbours relentlessly

Ok. That puts your daughter's comment into perspective.

My wife has banished me, my guitars and electric bass to the shed for the duration of our lockdown.