@pawsandclaws1 said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1467632) said:
Prof on 9 just a minute ago believes Sydney will be in lockdown until Christmas, perhaps a bit longer. He said when vaccination rates hit 70%, numbers must be reduced and the Doherty modelling suggested 30 per day was an acceptable figure. It seems someone is not telling the public the truth.
Interesting, the head of Doherty came out a week ago and said you can re-open with more cases but with some trade-offs:
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/reopening-with-hundreds-of-cases-is-safe-doherty-20210824-p58ld9
But reading the article...
Opening with high vaccination rates and good testing, contact tracing etc: 13 deaths
Opening with 70% coverage and less than ideal contact tracing and testing: 1457 deaths
Personally I find it extremely offensive to effectively tell over 1400 Aussies who are elderly, disabled, unwell, war veterans or Aboriginal that they don't matter as much as opening up so Gerry Harvey making can make a few more bucks from Christmas sales.
Its not about Gerry Harvey at all, that is ridiculous.
Gerry is fine, in fact he is probably loving this lockdown. He has a massive company that is able to sell online with lower labour costs while the government pays his employees. He is relaxing with Katie onhis Hunter Valley property thinking life is good.
Meanwhile the majority of businesses are small businesses, mums and dads and the majority of them are shut down without options whilst rents, mortgages and loans clean them out.
The Government is haemorrhaging money and going further and further into debt that can not be paid back by even our childrens generation. The US Government is screwing it economy with insane spending with their debt approaching 97%GDP.
What people dont consider is this. Whats next. Exeryone accepts massive Govt bail outs, business lockdowns etc because THIS (the pandemic) is a very bad thing and we need to get past THIS. What if it gets worse? What if we do get past this and there is a global recession/depression in two years. What if a new virus hits in 5 years. There is zero resilience left in the economy or society because we have thrown everything at this.
People need to accept that we can and should do all we can, vaccinate as high as possible and then get back working.
I'll try and keep my response on topic with diverting to politics.
Economy and health are not mutually exclusive policy outcomes.
That is ridiculous, of course they are and I can prove it. Why are we currently locked down? How about you and I meet at a pub or a cafe and discuss this? Because to achieve the health outcome, we need to exclude the economy. It is the definition of mutually exclusive at the moment.
The two are very connected and plenty of economists have shown this although all you can see it in a simple example:
An entire factory catches a hypothetical infectious disease due to poor workplace health and safety measures. Every staff member needs to stay at home for three weeks and production halts..
Clearly a poor health outcome has led to a very bad economic outcome. I know because this happened to my previous business.
The optimal economic solution is to have low cases and resulting time off work (best health outcome) and economic activity. This is exactly what's happening in QLD while most of NSW has shut down for three months.
The Doherty report actually says lockdowns will be continue if cases are high due to pressure on the hospital system, which is the worst economic and health outcome.
The optimal health outcome approach with 13 deaths means you don't have to lockdown which as you pointed out, hurts business.
Where are you getting this figure of 13 deaths as an optimal health outcome from? How do you achieve the *optimal* health outcome without lockdowns?
It's in the Doherty report.
High vaccination rates and low cases allow you to test, trace and isolate and manage Covid without needing to lockdown.
Additionally, the less than optimal health approach has a massive cost to business in terms of productivity and sick leave payments, with much higher numbers of people needing to take weeks off work sick.
Again I need you to explain to me how the optimal health outcome doesnt include lockdowns that impact business and the economy.
And hypothetically, I couldn't care less if my local kebab shop needs to close their doors if it means a thousand plus battlers are saved.
The kebab shop owners arent battlers? Hairdressers arent battlers?
How do your "battlers" derive an income and feed their kids? Are they self employed? Do they have a boss? Even if they have their hand out to the Govt they are reliant on the economy not tanking and there is no resilience.
People need to get vaxxed and then people will need to get back to work. Genuinely cant understand the argument against it. Where do you think money comes from?
Seems like we both agree on the outcome, but not the details.
I'm not at all convinced that waiting a little bit longer, especially with government financial support, will send the local kebab shop or hairdresser to the point of not being able to feed their kids.
The thing is, if you effectively "let rip" with relatively low vaccination rates and from a high number of cases, (again, this is all in the Doherty report) you get higher deaths, more people taking time off work, massive strain on the hospital system and most likely lockdowns.
Interesting to see the news overnight that Gladys has overruled the health advice, which I suspect said similar to the par above.