Coronavirus Outbreak

[happy_tiger]

There are some simple things that HK does, like plastic film over lift buttons, so that it’s easy to sanitise.

I didn't realise lift buttons were difficult to sanitise? Why can't you just wipe them with disinfectant?

Things start to go overboard in this regard, I mean lift buttons? What about every other public surface in existence, are folks going to walk around opening things with a foot press or elbow or wave at a scanner, just to avoid germs?

Sure as hell don't touch money if germs are a problem, also don't talk to anyone, or shake hands - no no, that's instant transferal. We can all then add to the immuno-weaknesses that already might exist because some mums excessively disinfect their house and kids don't get a proper dose of bugs in their childhood.

This mentality is why Australia isn't going to do well through this.

The "Yeah, nah, she'll be right". Will make you tougher kind of response. Bud, that's why there will be a vaccination eventually built to ensure our immune systems can cope.

I mean, where do you draw the line? Would SARS landing in Australia mean that we start doing some smart things? Ebola?

High-touch surfaces such as lift buttons, public toilet doors (keep them open) all helps. You could label it soft. Label it an overreaction. But I would prefer to go with facts rather than a uncorrelated assumption about cleanliness causing auto-immune issues. Sounds all a bit anti-vax!

It is an over reaction though . Running around like chicken little is mental . Even at its worse it is only affecting a small percentage of the population. Kids are immune , relatively young people will experience mild symptoms, even the over 65s have a small percentage of the total population affected.
Cleary your hands , follow basic hygiene and she will be right . And if you have a preexisting respiratory or heart problem , than yea be more diligent . Otherwise it’s business as usual .

Yep. Business as usual.

My point was valid at the time based on the information at the time. Authorities are erring on the side of caution. Everything I said was true though . If you’re relatively healthy it’s equivalent to a mild flu or a strong cold . Going mental over toilet paper is embarrassing.

um, no it wasn't valid. You had a dig when I suggested measures around high touch surfaces. Hong Kong and Singapore have learned from these scenarios. Labeling those things they are doing as an overreaction shows how messed up were going to be.

yes, toilet paper is an overreaction. That's not what we were talking about though.

Mate you’re delusional! I literally said in that reply to follow all basic hygiene and you’ll be right . I was ? referring to the mass panic out there . which IS an Over reaction .
Even the biggest panic merchant experts , Are all saying for 99% of the population it’s no harsher than a mild flu.
Everyone needs to calm the hell down , follow basic hygiene( there I said it again just for you ) , and if you’re in the small minority who are most at risk , take due care.
You’re carrying on !

Basic hygiene and staying calm are both good suggestions. But, covid is not the same as the seasonal flu.

The death rate is 3.5% vs 0.1% in the seasonal flu. In over 80s it's about 15%.

It's twice as infectious.

But what's really different about it is the number of people that end up in hospital.

Nobody knows why, but 40-50% of serious cases where people end up in hospital on a ventilator are under 50s.

This is exactly what's happening in Italy at the moment. The hospitals are so full that doctors have been told to adopt wartime triage measures (i.e decide who they're going to let die).

3.5% of reported cases mate . That’s 8k world wide . And a large chunk of that is from China. And as it has been stated by infinite experts now , most people won’t even notice they have it . They will think it’s a bad cold . Whereas a flu is a flu And you’ll more likely report it , so the statistics are more accurate .
War time triage ? That’s not how triage in a war zone works mate. And what medication are they having for under 50s . IV drip ? Antibiotics don’t work on viruses. I get your point but , there’s so many variables that lead to that decision . Quarantine ? Being the biggest one . Doesn’t mean they’re on Their death bed , just means they’re taking up a bed because they’re in the incubation period . They’re not “picking who’s going to die mate” they’d be picking who actually needs care , or who is just infectious. They’re still doctors and nurses , they still have a Hippocratic oath.

We need to be careful about quoting published figures and what they actually represent. You are right in that the 3.5% death rate is overstated. If you look at Singapore, who have tested more widely ie Including people with low or mild symptoms, the death rate is about 0.6% to 0.8%. Over time I think this will be where the stats will normalise to. Still worse than influenza but not by an order of magnitude.

3 million Australians get CV and those numbers will still be bad

But according to some as long as the numbers aren't as bad as the Black Plague ,Smallpox ,German Measles and Spanish Flu those numbers are OK

I wonder if one of those numbers is their Mum ,Dad , sick family member ,grandparent ,sister ,closest friend ,wife ,life partner whether that will change things

Talking tough won't keep you alive if your number is up ....do as much as you can to help the others who might be in need please


Spot on - I’ve got family members in aged care, and a mum in Europe I can’t even visit if it goes pear shaped.

It’s pretty real here

Sorry very rude of me ..I'll add your family to my prayers ..hope they avoid all of this

 

[the_third]

There are some simple things that HK does, like plastic film over lift buttons, so that it’s easy to sanitise.

I didn't realise lift buttons were difficult to sanitise? Why can't you just wipe them with disinfectant?

Things start to go overboard in this regard, I mean lift buttons? What about every other public surface in existence, are folks going to walk around opening things with a foot press or elbow or wave at a scanner, just to avoid germs?

Sure as hell don't touch money if germs are a problem, also don't talk to anyone, or shake hands - no no, that's instant transferal. We can all then add to the immuno-weaknesses that already might exist because some mums excessively disinfect their house and kids don't get a proper dose of bugs in their childhood.

This mentality is why Australia isn't going to do well through this.

The "Yeah, nah, she'll be right". Will make you tougher kind of response. Bud, that's why there will be a vaccination eventually built to ensure our immune systems can cope.

I mean, where do you draw the line? Would SARS landing in Australia mean that we start doing some smart things? Ebola?

High-touch surfaces such as lift buttons, public toilet doors (keep them open) all helps. You could label it soft. Label it an overreaction. But I would prefer to go with facts rather than a uncorrelated assumption about cleanliness causing auto-immune issues. Sounds all a bit anti-vax!

It is an over reaction though . Running around like chicken little is mental . Even at its worse it is only affecting a small percentage of the population. Kids are immune , relatively young people will experience mild symptoms, even the over 65s have a small percentage of the total population affected.
Cleary your hands , follow basic hygiene and she will be right . And if you have a preexisting respiratory or heart problem , than yea be more diligent . Otherwise it’s business as usual .

Yep. Business as usual.

My point was valid at the time based on the information at the time. Authorities are erring on the side of caution. Everything I said was true though . If you’re relatively healthy it’s equivalent to a mild flu or a strong cold . Going mental over toilet paper is embarrassing.

um, no it wasn't valid. You had a dig when I suggested measures around high touch surfaces. Hong Kong and Singapore have learned from these scenarios. Labeling those things they are doing as an overreaction shows how messed up were going to be.

yes, toilet paper is an overreaction. That's not what we were talking about though.

Mate you’re delusional! I literally said in that reply to follow all basic hygiene and you’ll be right . I was ? referring to the mass panic out there . which IS an Over reaction .
Even the biggest panic merchant experts , Are all saying for 99% of the population it’s no harsher than a mild flu.
Everyone needs to calm the hell down , follow basic hygiene( there I said it again just for you ) , and if you’re in the small minority who are most at risk , take due care.
You’re carrying on !

Basic hygiene and staying calm are both good suggestions. But, covid is not the same as the seasonal flu.

The death rate is 3.5% vs 0.1% in the seasonal flu. In over 80s it's about 15%.

It's twice as infectious.

But what's really different about it is the number of people that end up in hospital.

Nobody knows why, but 40-50% of serious cases where people end up in hospital on a ventilator are under 50s.

This is exactly what's happening in Italy at the moment. The hospitals are so full that doctors have been told to adopt wartime triage measures (i.e decide who they're going to let die).

3.5% of reported cases mate . That’s 8k world wide . And a large chunk of that is from China. And as it has been stated by infinite experts now , most people won’t even notice they have it . They will think it’s a bad cold . Whereas a flu is a flu And you’ll more likely report it , so the statistics are more accurate .
War time triage ? That’s not how triage in a war zone works mate. And what medication are they having for under 50s . IV drip ? Antibiotics don’t work on viruses. I get your point but , there’s so many variables that lead to that decision . Quarantine ? Being the biggest one . Doesn’t mean they’re on Their death bed , just means they’re taking up a bed because they’re in the incubation period . They’re not “picking who’s going to die mate” they’d be picking who actually needs care , or who is just infectious. They’re still doctors and nurses , they still have a Hippocratic oath.

We need to be careful about quoting published figures and what they actually represent. You are right in that the 3.5% death rate is overstated. If you look at Singapore, who have tested more widely ie Including people with low or mild symptoms, the death rate is about 0.6% to 0.8%. Over time I think this will be where the stats will normalise to. Still worse than influenza but not by an order of magnitude.

3 million Australians get CV and those numbers will still be bad

But according to some as long as the numbers aren't as bad as the Black Plague ,Smallpox ,German Measles and Spanish Flu those numbers are OK

I wonder if one of those numbers is their Mum ,Dad , sick family member ,grandparent ,sister ,closest friend ,wife ,life partner whether that will change things

Talking tough won't keep you alive if your number is up ....do as much as you can to help the others who might be in need please


Spot on - I’ve got family members in aged care, and a mum in Europe I can’t even visit if it goes pear shaped.

It’s pretty real here

Sorry very rude of me ..I'll add your family to my prayers ..hope they avoid all of this

All good mate we all have ours to look after. Thoughts and prayers with you as well.

 

[mike]

There are some simple things that HK does, like plastic film over lift buttons, so that it’s easy to sanitise.

I didn't realise lift buttons were difficult to sanitise? Why can't you just wipe them with disinfectant?

Things start to go overboard in this regard, I mean lift buttons? What about every other public surface in existence, are folks going to walk around opening things with a foot press or elbow or wave at a scanner, just to avoid germs?

Sure as hell don't touch money if germs are a problem, also don't talk to anyone, or shake hands - no no, that's instant transferal. We can all then add to the immuno-weaknesses that already might exist because some mums excessively disinfect their house and kids don't get a proper dose of bugs in their childhood.

This mentality is why Australia isn't going to do well through this.

The "Yeah, nah, she'll be right". Will make you tougher kind of response. Bud, that's why there will be a vaccination eventually built to ensure our immune systems can cope.

I mean, where do you draw the line? Would SARS landing in Australia mean that we start doing some smart things? Ebola?

High-touch surfaces such as lift buttons, public toilet doors (keep them open) all helps. You could label it soft. Label it an overreaction. But I would prefer to go with facts rather than a uncorrelated assumption about cleanliness causing auto-immune issues. Sounds all a bit anti-vax!

It is an over reaction though . Running around like chicken little is mental . Even at its worse it is only affecting a small percentage of the population. Kids are immune , relatively young people will experience mild symptoms, even the over 65s have a small percentage of the total population affected.
Cleary your hands , follow basic hygiene and she will be right . And if you have a preexisting respiratory or heart problem , than yea be more diligent . Otherwise it’s business as usual .

Yep. Business as usual.

My point was valid at the time based on the information at the time. Authorities are erring on the side of caution. Everything I said was true though . If you’re relatively healthy it’s equivalent to a mild flu or a strong cold . Going mental over toilet paper is embarrassing.

um, no it wasn't valid. You had a dig when I suggested measures around high touch surfaces. Hong Kong and Singapore have learned from these scenarios. Labeling those things they are doing as an overreaction shows how messed up were going to be.

yes, toilet paper is an overreaction. That's not what we were talking about though.

Mate you’re delusional! I literally said in that reply to follow all basic hygiene and you’ll be right . I was ? referring to the mass panic out there . which IS an Over reaction .
Even the biggest panic merchant experts , Are all saying for 99% of the population it’s no harsher than a mild flu.
Everyone needs to calm the hell down , follow basic hygiene( there I said it again just for you ) , and if you’re in the small minority who are most at risk , take due care.
You’re carrying on !

Basic hygiene and staying calm are both good suggestions. But, covid is not the same as the seasonal flu.

The death rate is 3.5% vs 0.1% in the seasonal flu. In over 80s it's about 15%.

It's twice as infectious.

But what's really different about it is the number of people that end up in hospital.

Nobody knows why, but 40-50% of serious cases where people end up in hospital on a ventilator are under 50s.

This is exactly what's happening in Italy at the moment. The hospitals are so full that doctors have been told to adopt wartime triage measures (i.e decide who they're going to let die).

3.5% of reported cases mate . That’s 8k world wide . And a large chunk of that is from China. And as it has been stated by infinite experts now , most people won’t even notice they have it . They will think it’s a bad cold . Whereas a flu is a flu And you’ll more likely report it , so the statistics are more accurate .
War time triage ? That’s not how triage in a war zone works mate. And what medication are they having for under 50s . IV drip ? Antibiotics don’t work on viruses. I get your point but , there’s so many variables that lead to that decision . Quarantine ? Being the biggest one . Doesn’t mean they’re on Their death bed , just means they’re taking up a bed because they’re in the incubation period . They’re not “picking who’s going to die mate” they’d be picking who actually needs care , or who is just infectious. They’re still doctors and nurses , they still have a Hippocratic oath.

We need to be careful about quoting published figures and what they actually represent. You are right in that the 3.5% death rate is overstated. If you look at Singapore, who have tested more widely ie Including people with low or mild symptoms, the death rate is about 0.6% to 0.8%. Over time I think this will be where the stats will normalise to. Still worse than influenza but not by an order of magnitude.

3 million Australians get CV and those numbers will still be bad

But according to some as long as the numbers aren't as bad as the Black Plague ,Smallpox ,German Measles and Spanish Flu those numbers are OK

I wonder if one of those numbers is their Mum ,Dad , sick family member ,grandparent ,sister ,closest friend ,wife ,life partner whether that will change things

Talking tough won't keep you alive if your number is up ....do as much as you can to help the others who might be in need please

Yes it will still be bad, until a vaccine is developed. We certainly need to do all we can to protect the elderly. Help all those that need help and assistance. Take the advice of the medical profession which is based on science. Up all hygiene so that everyone follows good practice. Don’t panic and go out and buy essentials you won’t use, keep enough for a couple of weeks, this includes medicine for chronic illnesses, in case the family needs to self isolate. We don’t need panic buy shortages, that won’t help those who have difficulty shopping already. Fear induced panic will only make the situation much worse for the most vulnerable. So let’s keep calm and help each other through this.

 

[Eca]

.. and that's toilet paper, imagine what happens if there's food shortages

 

[Mighty_Tiger]

If you think this won’t get real over the next week then you’re in for a shock.

Get ready for extended stay home duties - not talking weeks could be 3-4 months.

It’s all about keeping hospitals afloat to give a fighting chance who get moderate to serious symptoms be it corona or other life threatening issues.

I feel sorry for those who will lose income/businesses and will fight for survival

Government have more meetings today, things are going to happen.

FYI I have been told last night my team will be expected to be working from home fulltime for 3-4mths as of Monday. This will be for a while.

 

[GNR4LIFE]

I work in local Government. Not sure what the protocol would be for us. Obviously services to the public would need to go ahead. Maybe departments that aren’t essential to the public are told to stay home.

 

[Tim Sheens]

There are some simple things that HK does, like plastic film over lift buttons, so that it’s easy to sanitise.

I didn't realise lift buttons were difficult to sanitise? Why can't you just wipe them with disinfectant?

Things start to go overboard in this regard, I mean lift buttons? What about every other public surface in existence, are folks going to walk around opening things with a foot press or elbow or wave at a scanner, just to avoid germs?

Sure as hell don't touch money if germs are a problem, also don't talk to anyone, or shake hands - no no, that's instant transferal. We can all then add to the immuno-weaknesses that already might exist because some mums excessively disinfect their house and kids don't get a proper dose of bugs in their childhood.

This mentality is why Australia isn't going to do well through this.

The "Yeah, nah, she'll be right". Will make you tougher kind of response. Bud, that's why there will be a vaccination eventually built to ensure our immune systems can cope.

I mean, where do you draw the line? Would SARS landing in Australia mean that we start doing some smart things? Ebola?

High-touch surfaces such as lift buttons, public toilet doors (keep them open) all helps. You could label it soft. Label it an overreaction. But I would prefer to go with facts rather than a uncorrelated assumption about cleanliness causing auto-immune issues. Sounds all a bit anti-vax!

It is an over reaction though . Running around like chicken little is mental . Even at its worse it is only affecting a small percentage of the population. Kids are immune , relatively young people will experience mild symptoms, even the over 65s have a small percentage of the total population affected.
Cleary your hands , follow basic hygiene and she will be right . And if you have a preexisting respiratory or heart problem , than yea be more diligent . Otherwise it’s business as usual .

Yep. Business as usual.

My point was valid at the time based on the information at the time. Authorities are erring on the side of caution. Everything I said was true though . If you’re relatively healthy it’s equivalent to a mild flu or a strong cold . Going mental over toilet paper is embarrassing.

um, no it wasn't valid. You had a dig when I suggested measures around high touch surfaces. Hong Kong and Singapore have learned from these scenarios. Labeling those things they are doing as an overreaction shows how messed up were going to be.

yes, toilet paper is an overreaction. That's not what we were talking about though.

Mate you’re delusional! I literally said in that reply to follow all basic hygiene and you’ll be right . I was ? referring to the mass panic out there . which IS an Over reaction .
Even the biggest panic merchant experts , Are all saying for 99% of the population it’s no harsher than a mild flu.
Everyone needs to calm the hell down , follow basic hygiene( there I said it again just for you ) , and if you’re in the small minority who are most at risk , take due care.
You’re carrying on !

Basic hygiene and staying calm are both good suggestions. But, covid is not the same as the seasonal flu.

The death rate is 3.5% vs 0.1% in the seasonal flu. In over 80s it's about 15%.

It's twice as infectious.

But what's really different about it is the number of people that end up in hospital.

Nobody knows why, but 40-50% of serious cases where people end up in hospital on a ventilator are under 50s.

This is exactly what's happening in Italy at the moment. The hospitals are so full that doctors have been told to adopt wartime triage measures (i.e decide who they're going to let die).

3.5% of reported cases mate . That’s 8k world wide . And a large chunk of that is from China. And as it has been stated by infinite experts now , most people won’t even notice they have it . They will think it’s a bad cold . Whereas a flu is a flu And you’ll more likely report it , so the statistics are more accurate .
War time triage ? That’s not how triage in a war zone works mate. And what medication are they having for under 50s . IV drip ? Antibiotics don’t work on viruses. I get your point but , there’s so many variables that lead to that decision . Quarantine ? Being the biggest one . Doesn’t mean they’re on Their death bed , just means they’re taking up a bed because they’re in the incubation period . They’re not “picking who’s going to die mate” they’d be picking who actually needs care , or who is just infectious. They’re still doctors and nurses , they still have a Hippocratic oath.

We need to be careful about quoting published figures and what they actually represent. You are right in that the 3.5% death rate is overstated. If you look at Singapore, who have tested more widely ie Including people with low or mild symptoms, the death rate is about 0.6% to 0.8%. Over time I think this will be where the stats will normalise to. Still worse than influenza but not by an order of magnitude.

Yeah, I feel the variance in death rates is directly attributable to the responses, with lack of initial testing and restrictions enabling peaks to occur.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

I work in local Government. Not sure what the protocol would be for us. Obviously services to the public would need to go ahead. Maybe departments that aren’t essential to the public are told to stay home.

NSW Govt and the Union negotiated an extra 20 days special leave pa. This is mainly to cover self isolation or workers having to stay off work to mind children for extended closure of schools. Working from home is looking likely moving forward.

I am waiting to learn about test results from a colleague who sits in the adjoining workstation.

 

[GNR4LIFE]

My stepdad is flying to Indonesia this week. Trying to educate my mother on the risks, whether it be contracting it, or the possibility our country issues a travel ban and he’s stuck there indefinitely is like banging my head against a wall

 

[momo_amp_medo]

Currently on road trip with some overseas family members from Netherlands.
We are in Caloundra/ Golden Beach for next6 days. Apartment overlooking bay and township. Normally on Sunday packed with visitors and locals ..... but pretty quiet both on water and on shore. Walking track sparsely used.
Went shopping for supplies yesterday arvo .... lots of stuff missing and Woolies taking advantage by bumping price's.
Petrol-still cheap compared to Sydney. Cairns Port Douglas next so will be interesting to see how things are up there.

 

[Masterton]

.. and that's toilet paper, imagine what happens if there's food shortages

Or baby formula. People's heads will explode.

 

[earl]

Still worse than influenza but not by an order of magnitude.

Just to be clear on this. It is definitely by an order of magnitude much worse than the flu. It appears to be at least 10 times worse than the flu. We can definitely handle this situation in the future but if we have an exponential growth in the infection rate which has happened overseas we are in trouble.

We will get through this. It won't be that bad in 5 years time. It's potentially though a big problem now.

 

[mike]

Still worse than influenza but not by an order of magnitude.

Just to be clear on this. It is definitely by an order of magnitude much worse than the flu. It appears to be at least 10 times worse than the flu. We can definitely handle this situation in the future but if we have an exponential growth in the infection rate which has happened overseas we are in trouble.

We will get through this. It won't be that bad in 5 years time. It's potentially though a big problem now.

No it’s not. It is worse than the flu for sure but not by an order of magnitude

 

[earl]

Still worse than influenza but not by an order of magnitude.

Just to be clear on this. It is definitely by an order of magnitude much worse than the flu. It appears to be at least 10 times worse than the flu. We can definitely handle this situation in the future but if we have an exponential growth in the infection rate which has happened overseas we are in trouble.

We will get through this. It won't be that bad in 5 years time. It's potentially though a big problem now.

No it’s not. It is worse than the flu for sure but not by an order of magnitude

It's about 10 times worse than the flu on best case statistics. That is a best case statistic of about a .5% mortality rate. To me that is an order of magnitude worse.

 

[hobbo1]

Geez there’s some doomsdayer’s on this forum 🙄

 

[mike]

Still worse than influenza but not by an order of magnitude.

Just to be clear on this. It is definitely by an order of magnitude much worse than the flu. It appears to be at least 10 times worse than the flu. We can definitely handle this situation in the future but if we have an exponential growth in the infection rate which has happened overseas we are in trouble.

We will get through this. It won't be that bad in 5 years time. It's potentially though a big problem now.

No it’s not. It is worse than the flu for sure but not by an order of magnitude

It's about 10 times worse than the flu on best case statistics. That is a best case statistic of about a .5% mortality rate. To me that is an order of magnitude worse.

Influenza has a mortality rate of 0.1% to 0.2%. 0.5% is not 10 times this. But let us not quibble. We need to take all precautions necessary to protect those that are most vulnerable.

 

[earl]

Still worse than influenza but not by an order of magnitude.

Just to be clear on this. It is definitely by an order of magnitude much worse than the flu. It appears to be at least 10 times worse than the flu. We can definitely handle this situation in the future but if we have an exponential growth in the infection rate which has happened overseas we are in trouble.

We will get through this. It won't be that bad in 5 years time. It's potentially though a big problem now.

No it’s not. It is worse than the flu for sure but not by an order of magnitude

It's about 10 times worse than the flu on best case statistics. That is a best case statistic of about a .5% mortality rate. To me that is an order of magnitude worse.

Influenza has a mortality rate of 0.1% to 0.2%. 0.5% is not 10 times this. But let us not quibble. We need to take all precautions necessary to protect those that are most vulnerable.

My understanding was that the flu had a mortality rate of about .06%. I agree that we need to take all precautions to protect the most vulnerable.

 

[mike]

Still worse than influenza but not by an order of magnitude.

Just to be clear on this. It is definitely by an order of magnitude much worse than the flu. It appears to be at least 10 times worse than the flu. We can definitely handle this situation in the future but if we have an exponential growth in the infection rate which has happened overseas we are in trouble.

We will get through this. It won't be that bad in 5 years time. It's potentially though a big problem now.

No it’s not. It is worse than the flu for sure but not by an order of magnitude

It's about 10 times worse than the flu on best case statistics. That is a best case statistic of about a .5% mortality rate. To me that is an order of magnitude worse.

Influenza has a mortality rate of 0.1% to 0.2%. 0.5% is not 10 times this. But let us not quibble. We need to take all precautions necessary to protect those that are most vulnerable.

My understanding was that the flu had a mortality rate of about .06%. I agree that we need to take all precautions to protect the most vulnerable.

We are obviously looking at different base lines. The point I was trying to make is it not the 3.5% or 14% range that has been quoted in the media. It’s a lot less. I am not trying to minimise the impact this will have but I don’t want to exaggerate it either. The fear and panic this creates could also cause a number of unnecessary deaths. We need to keep a level head and support all those that need support and part of doing that is not to panic, it only makes things worse. If we all work together we will get through it. The best thing all of us can do now to protect the most vulnerable is not to panic buy, practice good hygiene and take the advice of the science based medical practitioners.

 

[TillLindemann]

Still worse than influenza but not by an order of magnitude.

Just to be clear on this. It is definitely by an order of magnitude much worse than the flu. It appears to be at least 10 times worse than the flu. We can definitely handle this situation in the future but if we have an exponential growth in the infection rate which has happened overseas we are in trouble.

We will get through this. It won't be that bad in 5 years time. It's potentially though a big problem now.

No it’s not. It is worse than the flu for sure but not by an order of magnitude

It's about 10 times worse than the flu on best case statistics. That is a best case statistic of about a .5% mortality rate. To me that is an order of magnitude worse.

Influenza has a mortality rate of 0.1% to 0.2%. 0.5% is not 10 times this. But let us not quibble. We need to take all precautions necessary to protect those that are most vulnerable.

My understanding was that the flu had a mortality rate of about .06%. I agree that we need to take all precautions to protect the most vulnerable.

We are obviously looking at different base lines. The point I was trying to make is it not the 3.5% or 14% range that has been quoted in the media. It’s a lot less. I am not trying to minimise the impact this will have but I don’t want to exaggerate it either. The fear and panic this creates could also cause a number of unnecessary deaths. We need to keep a level head and support all those that need support and part of doing that is not to panic, it only makes things worse. If we all work together we will get through it. The best thing all of us can do now to protect the most vulnerable is not to panic buy, practice good hygiene and take the advice of the science based medical practitioners.

Is it? Not saying you're wrong, but everything I've read says coroner's death rate is about 2-3%, not 0.5%.

 

[mike]

Still worse than influenza but not by an order of magnitude.

Just to be clear on this. It is definitely by an order of magnitude much worse than the flu. It appears to be at least 10 times worse than the flu. We can definitely handle this situation in the future but if we have an exponential growth in the infection rate which has happened overseas we are in trouble.

We will get through this. It won't be that bad in 5 years time. It's potentially though a big problem now.

No it’s not. It is worse than the flu for sure but not by an order of magnitude

It's about 10 times worse than the flu on best case statistics. That is a best case statistic of about a .5% mortality rate. To me that is an order of magnitude worse.

Influenza has a mortality rate of 0.1% to 0.2%. 0.5% is not 10 times this. But let us not quibble. We need to take all precautions necessary to protect those that are most vulnerable.

My understanding was that the flu had a mortality rate of about .06%. I agree that we need to take all precautions to protect the most vulnerable.

We are obviously looking at different base lines. The point I was trying to make is it not the 3.5% or 14% range that has been quoted in the media. It’s a lot less. I am not trying to minimise the impact this will have but I don’t want to exaggerate it either. The fear and panic this creates could also cause a number of unnecessary deaths. We need to keep a level head and support all those that need support and part of doing that is not to panic, it only makes things worse. If we all work together we will get through it. The best thing all of us can do now to protect the most vulnerable is not to panic buy, practice good hygiene and take the advice of the science based medical practitioners.

Is it? Not saying you're wrong, but everything I've read says coroner's death rate is about 2-3%, not 0.5%.

Ok let’s unpack this a bit.
Is it 2-3% of the entire population? no
Is it 2-3% of everyone that has COVID-19? The stats from overseas that have tested widely suggest not but it is closer to 0.6% to 0.8%
Is it 2-3% of people that have presented with severe symptoms of COVID-19 and need to be hospitalised and in the most severe cases need ICU? This is the most likely.

Without knowing the denominator, the total number of people the coroner’s is referring to, the figure can be misleading.