We will only need to win 3 of our remaining 6 to keep 8th. Possibly 7th. Win 4 and we are certainly safe.
All of the teams around us have tough runs and are playing each other. If you look at the run home of the Sharks and the Knights, even Manly don't have easy runs home. The Titans, Dragons and Canberra all look to have some challenging games in their remaining few. It is hard to see them getting past 26 pts. Our for and against, although it is -9 is still much much better than most below us. We really need to get the points against the Eels, Roosters and Dragons. If we do grab the points in one of the other games then we are good. If we can't get over those 3 teams then we really have no business being in the finals anyway. That game against the Storm at Leichhardt in the last round could actually decide 7th, 8th and 9th on the ladder. Given that Manly defeat the Warriors (no certainty) we probably stay in 8th this week regardless of how we go, based on for and against, with the Eels at home as the next game. Though a Tigers win v Souths would be massive! Another advantage is having our last 6 games all in Sydney, allowing plenty of Tiger fans to get there.
In a way it would be good to see the Tigers play an elimination final straight up. It would be a great challenge. In recent years and 05 we have always had that relative safety of not going out in week one.