How is our season looking?

[Juro]

We are getting close to our best ever season now, and are up to a 82% chance of making the top 8.


After 14 rounds, we have never been in a better position in any of the 3 years we went on to make the finals. The only year we have been higher at this stage of the year has been in 2000 when we were a staggering 89%. Amazing (and depressing) how that season imploded.

We are still a:
- 4% chance of the minor premiership (our highest chance since round 4 - Melbourne are still 69% chance and have to lose at least a couple more for anyone else to have a chance)
- 41% chance of making the top 4 (our highest chance for the year)
- 0.04% chance of the wooden spoon (Parra are now 50%, Knights are 13%)

 

[Juro]

Here is the graph for making the top 4.


We really snuck in in 2011…

 

[Juro]

Well the winning streak has come to an end, but the season certainly hasn't. We have slipped back to a 73% chance of making the top 8, marginally below where we were 2 weeks ago.


After 15 rounds, we were in a better position in only 1 of the 3 years we went on to make the finals (2010 - 86%). The only year we missed the finals and were higher at this stage of the year was in 2000 when we were 85%.

We are still a:
- 1% chance of the minor premiership (Melbourne are back up to 78%)
- 28% chance of making the top 4
- 0.09% chance of the wooden spoon (Parra are now 59%, Panthers are 19%)

 

[foreveratiger]

thanks for the percentages Juro, even though we had a loss vs Roosters i think our season is really gonna peak in the next couple of weeks . It's not a bad thing the loss , 1\. it will get us refocused on the job at hand 2\. will get the players edgey about there spots in the team and make them lift 3\. we have a load of players coming back from injuries. Just need that top 4 . IMO.

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

It's still too early to call I reckon. We've seen some very promising signs in the last 7 games. We've improved our defence in the middle, can tough/grind out a win, can hold a team to a duck egg, seem to play more responsible footy in the wet and our kicking game seems to be on the improve. We've had a fairly lucky run with the draw however and we haven't truly been tested yet.

Sunday was a write off given the circumstances regarding Robbie and the players that were ruled out in the lead up. We have a number of games coming up where we will test our mettle against some of the more consistent teams and I think our performances in these games will be the indicator of our finish this season.

The first test will be to rebound against a Newcastle team desperate to prove they're not cooked yet and then to come out swinging against an on fire Canterbury. Sironen, Ellis and hopefully Cashmere should be available for the game against them as well which will be an added boost.

 

[Knuckles]

I still think its looking pretty good …. Storm Tigers grand final is my tip

 

[supercoach]

looking at our draw, its hard but probably the draw you want leading into the semi finals, with some luck and no injuries,I see wins against knights,dogs x1,panthers,eels,dragons.chooks and the bye that equals 14 points and we could beat either or both souths and the cowboys away but I took a conservative approach. That would land us about 5th place. I think the dog matches will be split and the storm you never know, maybe they will be past the post for the minor premiership and opt to rest players. Anyway we could win the lot, but I think about 32 points will be close to the money.

The main thing is we have to beat all the teams below us from here on in and win one or two against teams above us. Should not be a problem but we are talking Wests Tigers where anything is possible

 

[Tigerdale]

if we win this week before the bye, we are in a good position.

a loss and we are looking over our shoulder

 

[Snake]

I still think its looking pretty good …. Storm Tigers grand final is my tip

Been thinking the same thing for a couple of weeks now am really positive for the first time this season have liked what I have seen over the previous few games just need a couple of guys back in a few weeks.

 

[Andy666]

The tigers are only a threat when they build to a finals series. Previous post is correct, beating the dragons away is tough at full strength, let alone them coming off the back of a flogging. Manly won the comp last year.

Hopefully we are full strength by rd 10\. Atleast benji looks the goods, very calm and collected. Watch the mid season revival :wink:
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Posted using RoarFEED

Told you all about the midseason revival…and with recent events the motivation is there to win firstly an origin series for the first time in 8 years and a premiership ironically 8 years later :wink:

 

[Juro]

Another loss, another slip. But we are still a 63% chance of making the top 8.


After 16 rounds, we were in a better position in only 1 of the 3 years we went on to make the finals (2010 - 79%). We were higher at this stage of the year in 2 Of the years we missed the finals (2000 - 91%, 2007 - 66%). We are precariously positioned now and the season could easily go either way.

We are still a:
- 0.7% chance of the minor premiership (Melbourne are 68%, Bulldogs and Broncos are 10%)
- 14% chance of making the top 4
- 0.07% chance of the wooden spoon (Parra are now 49%, Panthers are 26%)

 

[Juro]

Even though we didn't play this round, our chances are affected by the other results. With the Warriors winning, our chance of making the top 8 has dipped slightly to 60%.


After 17 rounds, we were in a better position in only 1 of the 3 years we went on to make the finals (2010 - 87%). We were higher at this stage of the year in 2 Of the years we missed the finals (2000 - 86%, 2007 - 77%).

We are still a:
- 0.4% chance of the minor premiership (Melbourne are 69%, Bulldogs are 11%)
- 14% chance of making the top 4
- 0.08% chance of the wooden spoon (Parra are now 56%, Panthers are 32%)

 

[westTAHger]

much better if the team wins on fri night against bulldogs..

 

[Juro]

Three losses in a row, falling out of the top 8, and our chances of playing finals footy this year are now below 50% for the first time since round 11\. Our chance of making the top 8 has fallen now to 43%.


After 18 rounds, we were in a better position in 2 of the 3 years we went on to make the finals (2010 - 92%, 2005 - 61%). Another loss next week and we would be lower than all 3 of those years. We were higher at this stage of the year in 2 Of the 9 years we missed the finals (2000 - 77%, 2007 - 71%).

We are still a:
- 0.2% chance of the minor premiership (Melbourne have fallen to 52%, Bulldogs are up to 19%)
- 6% chance of making the top 4
- 0.03% chance of the wooden spoon (Parra are now 66%, Panthers are 26%)

 

[Juro]

Back in the winners' circle, back the top 8, and our chances of playing finals footy this year are back above 50%. Our chance of making the top 8 is up to 55%.


After 19 rounds, we were in a better position in 2 of the 3 years we went on to make the finals (2010 - 98%, 2005 - 58%) and are dead even with where we were in 2011\. We were higher at this stage of the year in 2 Of the 9 years we missed the finals (2000 - 64%, 2007 - 63%).

We are still a:
- 0.3% chance of the minor premiership (Melbourne have fallen again, now at 38%, Bulldogs are up to 35%, Broncos are 10%)
- 8% chance of making the top 4
- No chance of the wooden spoon (Parra are now 73%, Panthers are 25%)

 

[Juro]

Ah bugger. Down we slip again… Our chance of making the top 8 is now 45%.


After 20 rounds, we were in a better position in all 3 of the years we went on to make the finals (2005 - 70%, 2010 - 91%, 2011 - 68%), so we're going to have to rewrite history. We were higher at this stage of the year in 2 Of the 9 years we missed the finals (2000 - 52%, 2007 - 80%). This round in 2007 was the highest chance we were of making the top 8 that year.

We are still a:
- No chance of the minor premiership (Bulldogs are the new frontrunners on 52%, Melbourne are down to 24%, Souths are 12%)
- 3% chance of making the top 4
- No chance of the wooden spoon (Parra are now 74%, Panthers are 20%)

 

[Juro]

Just out of interest, I wanted to see what position we would have been in if we had managed to win last night. With a 1 point win, the chances of making the top 8 would have been 73%. So that is a massive 28% difference!

 

[TIGER]

Up to shit!!!

 

[Juro]

The fall is gathering speed. Our chance of making the top 8 is now down to 27%.


After 21 rounds, we were in a better position in all 3 of the years we went on to make the finals (2005 - 91%, 2010 - 97%, 2011 - 81%). We were higher at this stage of the year in 5 Of the 9 years we missed the finals (2000 - 64%, 2004 - 37%, 2007 - 70%, 2008 - 40%, 2009 - 39%).

We are still a:
- No chance of the minor premiership (Bulldogs are firming at 71%, Souths are up to 16% while Melbourne now are only 10%)
- 0.7% chance of making the top 4 (and 0.01% of coming 2nd)
- 0.05% chance of the wooden spoon (Parra are 66%, Panthers are 19% and Roosters are 14%)

 

[system]

Full goatse