How is our season looking?

[Juro]

Results have been pretty kind to us this weekend. Even a 1 point win tonight would see our chances of making the top 8 increase from 27% to 45%, whereas a 1 point loss would see us fall just a bit to 21%.

 

[Anthism]

Coin toss percentage given the margin?
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[Juro]

Have we turned a corner or is this a dead cat bounce? Our chance of making the top 8 is now 51%, the coin toss percentage, as Anthism put it.


After 22 rounds, we had virtually locked in our top 8 positions in all 3 of the years we went on to make the finals (2005 - 98%, 2010 - 93%, 2011 - 89%). We were equal or higher at this stage of the year in 4 of the 9 years we missed the finals (2000 - 75%, 2004 - 56%, 2007 - 51%, 2009 - 57%).

We are still:
- No chance of the minor premiership (Bulldogs are firming at 76%, Souths are 14% and Melbourne are 10%)
- 1.2% chance of making the top 4 (and 0.07% of coming 3rd)
- Not even a mathematical chance of the wooden spoon (Parra are 75%, Panthers are 22% and Roosters are 3%)
- 0.01% chance of coming 15th

 

[Juro]

Here is the graph comparing us to years we were in the hunt at this stage but went on to miss out. Amazing how similar they were at this point in time…


 

[EggButterRoll99]

At the moment we had a tough run home to make the finals. We have st george at the SFS, Bulldogs at ANZ, Roosters at SFS which is a roosters home game i believe and we finish off with Melbourne Storm at Leichhardt.

A few notes

* The St. George game is going to be a good game but we might just get away with that one. My Prediction –> WIN

* Bulldogs are going strong at the moment and have so far won 10 games in a row and will probably make it 11 if they beat Brisbane. My Prediction --> LOSE

* Roosters are not doing so well at the moment, so i hope we can get up in that one. My Prediction --> WIN (by 2 points)

* Finally Melbourne at home, a good way to finish off the season we managed to beat the storm in melbourne without their big 3 so this time they are all in the starting side so our defence is going to have to put in a strong performance. My Prediction --> WIN

 

[hellman]

I hope I'm wrong but I'm sceptical that we can put together consistent performances for the rest of the year. I hope we do but its pretty hard to be confident.

 

[Juro]

Two wins on the trot and other results largely going our way have impoved our finals chances up to 69%. But we have been in a similar position in previous years and faltered…


After 23 rounds, in the years we made the finals previously, we were already looking at 'how high' instead of 'can we' (2005 - 100%, 2010 - 99.6%, 2011 - 94%). We were equal or higher at this stage of the year in 3 of the 9 years we missed the finals (2004 - 69%, 2007 - 75%, 2009 - 73%). It should be noted that 2007 only had 25 rounds...

We are still:
- No chance of the minor premiership (Bulldogs are almost there at 88%, Melbourne are 10% and Souths have fallen to 2%)
- 1.4% chance of making the top 4 (and 0.03% of coming 3rd)
- Not even a mathematical chance of the wooden spoon (Parra are 52%, Panthers are 44% and Roosters are 4%)
- 0.03% chance of coming 13th

 

[Juro]

And here is the graph of the years we stumbled…


A win on Friday night would see us jump clear of all those bitter disappointments.

 

[Juro]

An unlucky loss to the number 1 team, but thankfully it was by only 1 point. For and against will be crucial in determining the final position. And thanks to Manly for stuffing up the Knights f/a. Yes, I do feel dirty for saying that.

So we are still on the knife edge, with a 55% chance of getting into the finals.


After 24 rounds, in the years we made the finals previously, we were already looking at 'how high' instead of 'can we' (2005 - 100%, 2010 - 100%, 2011 - 100%). We were higher at this stage of the year in only 1 of the 9 years we missed the finals (2004 - 69%). It should be noted that 2007 only had 25 rounds…

We are still:
- No chance of the minor premiership (Bulldogs are almost there at 94%, Melbourne are 6% and Souths are out of the running)
- No chance of making the top 4 (and 5% of coming 6th)
- Not even a mathematical chance of the wooden spoon (Parra are 75%, Panthers are 21% and Roosters are 4%)
- 0.2% chance of coming 12th

As for other teams making the top 8, the Sharks are 99.5%, Broncos are 77%, Raiders are 38%, Titans are 18% and Knights are 13%. See how important the f/a is: Broncos are +37 and Raiders are -39.

 

[kh_canada]

Thanks for the stats Juro! I think Brisbane and Canberra will both fall this weekend with games against Manly and Canterbury respectively. But games against Penrith and NZ the week after are a chance. So I think we, Brisbane and Canberra will all finish on 28\. So for and against is important but I think Brisbane, Tigers, Raiders will be the final standing (regarding we all finish on the same points) but anything can happen.
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[Saturnalia]

Done the best he can with the line-up he has.

 

[innsaneink]

Its been looking average to poor, highly inconsistent with a few good performances thrown in.
Lots of injuries….oh whoa oh theinjuries
Damn injuries.
Apparently the rep season stung too
...and the refs....and the ABC, and Julian Assange ...and capt Emad

 

[Juro]

Is this the end of Zombie Tigers?

We are still a mathematical chance of making the finals but this is where my model falls down. I have assumed a 50% chance of any team winning any game, so we are just as likely to beat the Storm as the Broncos are of beating the Panthers and the Raiders are of beating the Warriors. So that gives us a much better chance of making it than what experience tells us. My model's answer? 36%…


After 25 rounds, in the years we made the finals previously, we were already looking at 'how high' instead of 'can we' (2005 - 100%, 2010 - 100%, 2011 - 100%). We were higher at this stage of the year in only 1 of the 9 years we missed the finals (2004 - 61%). It should be noted that 2007 only had 25 rounds...

We are still:
- No chance of the minor premiership (Bulldogs are almost there at 76%, Melbourne are 24%)
- No chance of making the top 4 (and 10% of coming 7th)
- No chance of the wooden spoon (Parra are 100% - first time in 41 years)
- 2% chance of coming 12th

As for other teams making the top 8, the Raiders are 90%, Broncos are 73%, Titans are 1% and Knights are 0.5%.

 

[Snodgrass]

Nice work Juro … You're clearly the Anthony Green of NRL machinations. How does that all pan out when you factor in preferences from the outlying booths ... My two party prediction is that we are about to spend September on the shadowy cross benches

 

[Joel Helmes]

Guys we are NOT going to make it - accept it.

 

[Juro]

I have largely accepted that we won't make it, but we are still in this weird living dead stage for another week (hence the Zombie Tigers).

 

[Snodgrass]

Of course we'll make it …and we'll probably play Manly in the grand final

 

[mike]

We are basically stuffed this season. Let's move on. The final game against Melbourne should be interesting though.
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[Juro]

Yes, I know. The season is over, far too early… but then it is a bit of a relief that there will be no more losses!

Time for a bit of reflection. Who were the teams that beat the odds, and were there any teams who disappointed more than us?

1\. The race for the minor premiership had 2 serious contenders, the Bulldogs and the Storm. It had appeared that the Storm had the J.J. Giltinan Shield when they were up to 78% in round 15, before they lost 5 of their final 10 games. Another team in with a chance were the Broncos (24% in round 8) before they crawled into 8th place, losing 11 of their last 16 games. The closest we got was 8% in round 1\. The Bulldogs came from only 2% in round 8 to claim the prize, winning 14 of their last 16 games.

2\. The top 4 battle was more even. Of the teams who missed out, the Broncos were the closest with 74% in round 8\. They were followed by the Sharks (60% in round 18), Cowboys (50% in round 20) and Wests Tigers (41% in round 14). Of the teams who made it, none were extremely long odds. The Rabbitohs were 13% (round 4), the Sea Eagles were 16% (round 7), the Bulldogs were 21% (round 8) and the Storm were 25% (before the season even commenced).

3\. The race for the wooden spoon was dominated by the Eels, who never got started. Their shortest odds were prior to round 1, when they were 6%. Others who came close were the Panthers (44% in round 23), Wests Tigers (18% in round 6) and Titans (also 18% in round 6). So in that regard, we could have done a lot worse!

4\. And finally, the race for the finals. And yes, we were the biggest disappointment here. We made it to 82% in round 14 before it all went horribly wrong, losing 8 of our final 11 games. The other teams to fall by the wayside were:
* Dragons (69% in round 8)
* Roosters (63% in round 6)
* Titans (59% in round 1)
* Knights (54% in round 8)
* Panthers (52% in round 4)
* Warriors (51% in round 4)
* Eels (50% prior to season start)

Of the teams to make the top 8, the Raiders were the team to come from the clouds. They were out to 6% in round 21 before winning all of their final 5 games, finishing 6th. The other teams to make the finals were:
* Rabbitohs (34% in round 2)
* Sharks (35% in round 2)
* Cowboys (42% in round 1)
* Sea Eagles (42% in round 5)
* Broncos, Bulldogs and Storm (50% prior to season start)

It has been fun doing this thread this year (obviously more fun some weeks than others!). I'm hoping I can do it again next year, with a different final answer...

... and no, I don't think I'll bother to update the graph. The line just goes to zero... :frowning: