Yes, I know. The season is over, far too early… but then it is a bit of a relief that there will be no more losses!
Time for a bit of reflection. Who were the teams that beat the odds, and were there any teams who disappointed more than us?
1\. The race for the minor premiership had 2 serious contenders, the Bulldogs and the Storm. It had appeared that the Storm had the J.J. Giltinan Shield when they were up to 78% in round 15, before they lost 5 of their final 10 games. Another team in with a chance were the Broncos (24% in round 8) before they crawled into 8th place, losing 11 of their last 16 games. The closest we got was 8% in round 1\. The Bulldogs came from only 2% in round 8 to claim the prize, winning 14 of their last 16 games.
2\. The top 4 battle was more even. Of the teams who missed out, the Broncos were the closest with 74% in round 8\. They were followed by the Sharks (60% in round 18), Cowboys (50% in round 20) and Wests Tigers (41% in round 14). Of the teams who made it, none were extremely long odds. The Rabbitohs were 13% (round 4), the Sea Eagles were 16% (round 7), the Bulldogs were 21% (round 8) and the Storm were 25% (before the season even commenced).
3\. The race for the wooden spoon was dominated by the Eels, who never got started. Their shortest odds were prior to round 1, when they were 6%. Others who came close were the Panthers (44% in round 23), Wests Tigers (18% in round 6) and Titans (also 18% in round 6). So in that regard, we could have done a lot worse!
4\. And finally, the race for the finals. And yes, we were the biggest disappointment here. We made it to 82% in round 14 before it all went horribly wrong, losing 8 of our final 11 games. The other teams to fall by the wayside were:
* Dragons (69% in round 8)
* Roosters (63% in round 6)
* Titans (59% in round 1)
* Knights (54% in round 8)
* Panthers (52% in round 4)
* Warriors (51% in round 4)
* Eels (50% prior to season start)
Of the teams to make the top 8, the Raiders were the team to come from the clouds. They were out to 6% in round 21 before winning all of their final 5 games, finishing 6th. The other teams to make the finals were:
* Rabbitohs (34% in round 2)
* Sharks (35% in round 2)
* Cowboys (42% in round 1)
* Sea Eagles (42% in round 5)
* Broncos, Bulldogs and Storm (50% prior to season start)
It has been fun doing this thread this year (obviously more fun some weeks than others!). I'm hoping I can do it again next year, with a different final answer...
... and no, I don't think I'll bother to update the graph. The line just goes to zero... :frowning: