Yep down 5% today after a less than impressive few weeks. Could be the start of a major downslide or just a solid correction, who knows. But with inflation and interest rates on the rise here and around the world and geopolitical issues with Russia / Ukraine and possibly China / Taiwan I'm leaning towards a major downslide in equity markets around the world. Hope I'm wrong.
Share Trading ASX - Stock Tips and Discussion
- Thread starter weststigers
- Start date
Crypto copped a hiding too.
Magpie_Magic
Well-known member
Basically all about withdrawal of QE as I posted elsewhere.
Cryptocurrencies only existed because of too much printed money.
The geopolitical situation is forcing the U.S. to go back to a more balanced prudent financial policy in order to compete. To much BS out of the U.S. the last 25 years or so since they had no competition. With competition that will change now and bring out the best in them and the other global powers as they compete for influence.
At a guess I think we find a floor around 6200 on ASX all ordinarys in coming days or weeks. We will do better with our commodity backdrop.
After that companies and business practices that are sensible will be the way forward.
Cryptocurrencies only existed because of too much printed money.
The geopolitical situation is forcing the U.S. to go back to a more balanced prudent financial policy in order to compete. To much BS out of the U.S. the last 25 years or so since they had no competition. With competition that will change now and bring out the best in them and the other global powers as they compete for influence.
At a guess I think we find a floor around 6200 on ASX all ordinarys in coming days or weeks. We will do better with our commodity backdrop.
After that companies and business practices that are sensible will be the way forward.
Magpie_Magic
Well-known member
Guessing the markets fall into Fed meeting and rally out of it. We may not fall as much tomorrow given outsized move today. If we fall hard tomorrow I'm a buyer at least short term.😉
But the bottom will only come when they signal an end to QE tightening.
It's funny that most of what has been made the last 15 years or so was made out of thin air with QE.
With superpower blocks forming and and commodity supply shortages I'm super long commodities.
Love them.
mikey
Well-known member
My Super has copped an absolute hiding the last 18 months.
supercoach
Well-known member
So guys should I swap to the cash option with my super or ride out the Storm. When Covid first hit I swapped to cash ,but did it to late in the down cycle and it cost me close to 100g
Magpie_Magic
Well-known member
Nobody can be 100% sure but we are probably at least 50% through this.
But it will probably be a stockpickers market after this like 60s through 80s rather that buy the index ETFs type of thing.
Will have to be careful re fund choice.
tiger05premier
Well-known member
I'm no expert but I'd ride it out now
Or you risk another loss as you did during Covid
6 months ago there were calls from certain experts saying to cash out now and buy back in when it crashes which is something I believe is worth doing but I always chicken out and you would need to be patient to as it obviously takes time to unfold
It also depends on your age to
I'm 49 and I'm thinking if the market is on a record high around the time I'm 60 to 62 I will cash out but if it's already crashed and is building I will let it build until I'm ready to retire
TillLindemann
Well-known member
Get into agricultural / energy stocks
twentyforty
Well-known member
My WDS is up over 50% in the last 6 months.
Magpie_Magic
Well-known member
Not withstanding the correction in oil stocks this week expecting big things from Woodside and Santos.
Thinking this weeks anti oil narrative is just U.S. BS and maybe a sop to Bidens meet with oil executives this week and maybe a flush of weak holders.
Gold stocks stood out yesterday and thinking oil stocks to be the countertrend picks.
Gunna cheer if Albo talks about our companies selling "democracy gas and freedom oil" lol.
TillLindemann
Well-known member
The other side of the ledger is I expect oil consumption to be way down. Global economy looking very weak of course, and particularly struggling is the world's largest consumer of oil - China - partially self-inflicted by its repeated over the top covid lockdowns.
Magpie_Magic
Well-known member
Yeah this is a worry.
There is a risk that ever since the money printing began in earnest in 09 most times during corrections everything gets belted because it's all about money supply. We will have to watch this. However I'm hoping that as oil and some commodity stocks will be the only pockets of rising profitability they will countertrend. I do want to see oil stocks snap back rather quickly others I'll reassess.
On top of this central banks turn the money printing taps on and off like a switch so today rates aren't rising till 24 tomorrow they are rising the next day back down again so kind of like a centrally planned economy lol.
On recessions, evidence shows oil consumption only falls around 2% so like food we need it.
Beijing cluster ok now.
But yeah.....
Last edited:
Winston Churchill
Well-known member
My grandkids just told me this evening of something so wild I still cant get my head around it. Something to do with block-chaining a crypto?? Anyone heard of it? Keep it on the hush, I want to get in on it before its too late.
hope your in tight with an air conditioning company-gotta keep that s$%t cool
Magpies1969
Well-known member
Forum members best EFT's you would recommend and company. Vanguard seems to rule this space.
Anybody got an opinion on Government bonds? thanks
Anybody got an opinion on Government bonds? thanks
twentyforty
Well-known member
Just my personal rule of thumb, but I wouldn’t buy bonds while the RBA is trying to rope in inflation.
A better time is when inflation has peaked and the cash rate is dropping.
twentyforty
Well-known member
I’m cash heavy atm. Decided to bank some profit, including BHP.
