Interesting chart and summary by Rugby League Eye Test - the expected points scored and conceded is based on things such as field position, plays in opposition 20, time in possession,field position opposition is restricted to etc. And yes i know its only stats but the interesting thing is that it does show the problem that we see on the field every week i.e. with the possession and field position we have we should be scoring a mountain of points. And in defence we are defending well in our 20 mtr zone but allowing tries to be scored more often than other teams from longer range tries.
Here’s where things start to diverge. Penrith, despite sitting 4-4, have been incredibly dominant as usual with their attacking field position, with an averaged expected score of 24.8 this season. What has changed is that defensively they’re allowing more than the average expected score of 19.5 this season, at 20.1.
Under this analysis the Wests Tigers should be one of the leading sides in the competition. At 23.3 expected points per game, they would place second in the NRL for attack and their 15.7 average expected points conceded is the best in the competition.
This shows that the issue for the Tigers isn’t field position, as they are able to get in positions to score and are the best in the league at keeping opponents out of scoring areas. Obviously this means they’re not scoring when they should and allowing points from positions that don’t usually yield a try, which is highly concerning.