I think we are one of the more difficult to predict teams for whether or not we improve next year.
You made some fair points in that our squad is essentially the same plus KPP and the side was very fortunate with injuries this year. So it's entirely possible if we are sitting middle of the pack or worse as far as injuries go we will regress next year. Particularly as I agree there is plenty of reasons to expect more from some of the other lowly ranked teams.
However there is a lot of potential for natural development in individuals across our best 17, Bula, Skelton, Taylan May, all 3 Fainus, Pole. I'm less confident but it is possible that we see more consistency from Toa plus who knows if Doueihi can turn himself into a capable 13 (if that is the plan). Enough individual improve will lead to a significant team improvement. I've more faith in some of the above than others, and I'm certainly not predicting we will suddenly look like top 8 material but next year is not without hope.