WestsSupporter
New member
Last 4 years round 20-21 and we are already 0%…wtf.
That means we only have 2 months of football left.
That means we only have 2 months of football left.
The J(uro) Curve
- Thread starter Juro
- Start date
Juro
Well-known member
@WestsSupporter said:
We hit 0.00% in the following rounds:
21: 2003, 2013
23: 2002
24: 2001, 2006, 2014, 2015
25: 2000, 2007*, 2008, 2009
26: 2004, 2012
We hit 10% (sort of a point of no return) in the following rounds:
10: 2003
16: 2015
17: 2001, 2013
18: 2002
22: 2006, 2014
24: 2008
25: 2000, 2007*, 2009
26: 2004, 2012
Note that 2007 only had 25 rounds.
2012…. man, that looks like a monumental choke now in hindsight, although it didnn't feel that way at the time.
We were tipped as favourites for the comp that year based on the acquisition of Adam Blair, and because we didn't lost any players from the year before, and due to our strong performance the year before (Kristian Inu will forever burn in my own personal hell)
What a way to send Gareth Ellis out as well.
Just... sad.
We were tipped as favourites for the comp that year based on the acquisition of Adam Blair, and because we didn't lost any players from the year before, and due to our strong performance the year before (Kristian Inu will forever burn in my own personal hell)
What a way to send Gareth Ellis out as well.
Just... sad.
Gary_Bakerloo
New member
Correct me if wrong, but are we basically in the exact same position as this time last season?
It will be interesting where we go from here.
It will be interesting where we go from here.
Juro
Well-known member
@Gary Bakerloo said:
We're 0.62% closer this year…
...
...
...
Sigh...
tigermac88
New member
Where were we sitting in relation to this year in 2005 and 2010?
Juro
Well-known member
@tigermac88 said:
In round 11, we were on 49% in 2005 and 55% in 2010\. Mind you, we fell to 27% in round 15 of 2005 before winning our next 8 games.
innsaneink
Well-known member
% of what?
doesnt make sense
100% in 2011 and 0 everywhere else
doesnt make sense
100% in 2011 and 0 everywhere else
Juro
Well-known member
@innsaneink said:
The percentage relates to the probability of a certain event occurring (eg making the finals in a given year) based on the assumptions I have used in my model. While the assumptions are relatively simple, they give an indication of the degree of possibility. Yes, at the end of every season, the answer will be 0% or 100%, but while we are progressing through the season, we can't say for certain what the final answer will be.
innsaneink
Well-known member
Sweet….gotcha
When I relised 2010 wasnt counted it began to make sense
When I relised 2010 wasnt counted it began to make sense
Juro
Well-known member
Maybe our fate is not sealed just yet this season. Two wins in a row and the curve breaks free of 2013 and 2015.
Key results:
- 0.1% chance of minor premiership (Sharks are 33%, 3 teams have already reached 0.00%)
- 5% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sharks are 83%, Eels are 0.00%)
- 31% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sharks are 98%, Eels are 1%)
- 25% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Sharks are 0.07%, Eels are 89%)
- 1% chance of wooden spoon (3 teams have already reached 0.00%, Eels are 41%)
Please note that my model takes no notice of byes. It considers games won and games played. So, for example, we are rated as being in a better position than Manly, as we have won 5 of 12 games (42%), while Manly have won 4 of 11 games (36%). On the NRL ladder, we are behind them, both on 10 points but with worse F/A. The NRL ladder overstates Manly's position, since there is a chance they will lose their next game. Once every team has had its 2 byes, my table will line up with the NRL ladder.
Key results:
- 0.1% chance of minor premiership (Sharks are 33%, 3 teams have already reached 0.00%)
- 5% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sharks are 83%, Eels are 0.00%)
- 31% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sharks are 98%, Eels are 1%)
- 25% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Sharks are 0.07%, Eels are 89%)
- 1% chance of wooden spoon (3 teams have already reached 0.00%, Eels are 41%)
Please note that my model takes no notice of byes. It considers games won and games played. So, for example, we are rated as being in a better position than Manly, as we have won 5 of 12 games (42%), while Manly have won 4 of 11 games (36%). On the NRL ladder, we are behind them, both on 10 points but with worse F/A. The NRL ladder overstates Manly's position, since there is a chance they will lose their next game. Once every team has had its 2 byes, my table will line up with the NRL ladder.
foreveratiger
New member
Interesting that the red and green lines by Round 20 gave us 0% of making the 8\. At the moment we are sitting above the green and red lines at the same stage of the Season which is encouraging .
As other posters have stated in another thread…...the next 2 games has a massive bearing on where that line goes in that graph , if we can hopefully get wins in our next 2 games going into the Byes things could be interesting going into the 2nd half of the Season .
As other posters have stated in another thread…...the next 2 games has a massive bearing on where that line goes in that graph , if we can hopefully get wins in our next 2 games going into the Byes things could be interesting going into the 2nd half of the Season .
happy_tiger
Well-known member
Juro what do you predict will happen to the curve if we do ever manage to hit that 100% mark ??
Juro
Well-known member
@foreveratiger said:
2 wins in the next 2 games would put us somewhere near 50% chance of making the finals. It would certainly put us in the mix, but we were also in the mix at the same point in time in 2012 and 2014 (and many other seasons).
Juro
Well-known member
@happy tiger said:
Well we have hit 100% in 2005, 2010 and 2011\. Then I would start focussing on the chance of making the top 4 (which also hit 100% in each of those years).
And if we hit 100%, you would not be the only Happy Tiger on this forum!
happy_tiger
Well-known member
@Juro said:
Sorry Juro , didn't realize you had been running the curve for so long :smiley:
Juro
Well-known member
@happy tiger said:
Have a look at the start of this thread. That goes back to 2013\. I think I started building my model in about 2009, and have gone back through historical seasons to see how they unfolded. I've got all the seasons from 2000 onwards modelled. Some day I might go further back…
@Juro said:
Only curve happy is familiar with is a Bell Curve…we all know which Bellend he sits...
Love you curve Juro keep it coming...
Hey Juro, are you a gambler of any type, just wondering if your percentages equate to odds?
having just had a good look at your graph, and then reading your statistics, the tigers are approx 31% or one in 3 of making the 8, yet the odds right now have us at 10-1 to make the 8.
what do you reckon, are we way overs at the moment, especially after seeing the team picked this week and Parra sitting in nowhere land, and outside the top 3 teams, the rest are plodders.
having just had a good look at your graph, and then reading your statistics, the tigers are approx 31% or one in 3 of making the 8, yet the odds right now have us at 10-1 to make the 8.
what do you reckon, are we way overs at the moment, especially after seeing the team picked this week and Parra sitting in nowhere land, and outside the top 3 teams, the rest are plodders.
Tim Sheens
Well-known member
@happy tiger said:
Well you would expect that it would flatline, but being sports related, it may be able to give a good 110%.
