The J(uro) Curve

[hank37w]

We are double the chance of being minor premiers over being wooden spooners!

Hearing that has made me feel so much better. 🤣

 

[hank37w]

we probably ly need to win one of next 2
dolphins or newcastle

 

[Juro]

45% of top 8 in mid June. Love to see it. Don’t want to push the return but having the 2005 graph as a comparative always gave me some hope. Thanks for doing this again either way.

We were only 27% at this point in 2005. Mind you, that was our low point that year, before going on our big winning streak.

 

[Juro]

Last week we had a gritty win. This week we had a gritty loss. We're going to need plenty of grit to turn the curve around.

We fell to a 33% chance of making the finals, our best chance at this point in a season since 2019. This would rank as 11th best of our 27 seasons to date.

I've mixed up the chart this week, to show us compared with other years where we were in a similar position at this point in the season. Those were 2002, 2005, 2008 and 2019. The interesting thing to me is that it was in the next round or two where those lines diverged. In 2005, we started our long winning streak, which carried us to the top 4. In 2008 and 2019 we weren't able to win more than a game or two in a row and only won about half of our remaining games, so their lines bounced up and down until eventually collapsing at the finish line. 2002 just went into a freefall from this point.





Key numbers are:
* 0.2% of minor premiership (-0.2% since last week)
- Panthers are 72% (-8%)
- Warriors are 14% (+6%)
- 5 team have reached 0.00%

* 6% of finishing in top 4 (-6%)
- Panthers are 97% (-1%)
- Warriors are 75% (+10%)
- Dragons are already at 0.00%

* 33% of finishing in top 8 (-12%)
- Panthers are 99.9% (-)
- Warriors are 96% (+3%)
- Dolphins are 89% (+8%)
- Dragons are the first team to reach 0.00%

* 12% of finishing in bottom 4 (+4%)
- Dragons are 99% (+1%)
- Titans are 67% (-8%)
- Raiders are 61% (+13%)
- Panthers are already at 0.00%

* 0.2% of wooden spoon (-)
- Dragons are 83% (+9%)
- Titans are 5% (-8%)
- Raiders are 4% (-)
- Rabbitohs are the 7th team to reach 0.00%

 

[Juro]

Last week we had a gritty loss. Was this weekend full of grit or another 4 letter word ending in 'it'?

We fell to a 20% chance of making the finals, our best chance at this point in a season since 2019. This would rank as 12th best of our 27 seasons to date, and is lower than our average chance at this stage of the season (26%).

This week our comparible season were 2002, 2016, 2018 and 2019. As you can see, or you already knew, none of those seasons ended the way we wanted. In fact, we have never come back from a lower percentage than in 2005, when we reached a low of 27%.

Time to write some new history!






Key numbers are:
* 0.01% of minor premiership (-0.2% since last week (but still a chance!!!))
- Panthers are 63% (-9%)
- Warriors are 10% (-4%)
- Dolphins are 8% (+4%)
- Bulldogs are the 6th team to reach 0.00%

* 2% of finishing in top 4 (-4%)
- Panthers are 95% (-2%)
- Warriors are 60% (-15%)
- Dolphins are 56% (+5%)
- Titans are the 2nd team to reach 0.00%

* 20% of finishing in top 8 (-13%)
- Panthers are 99.9% (-)
- Warriors are 93% (-3%)
- Dolphins are 93% (+4%)
- Dragons are already at 0.00%

* 17% of finishing in bottom 4 (+5%)
- Dragons are 99.8% (+0.8%)
- Titans are 78% (+11%)
- Eels are 66% (+11%)
- Panthers are already at 0.00%

* 0.3% of wooden spoon (+0.1%)
- Dragons are 87% (+4%)
- Titans are 6% (+1%)
- Eels are 4% (-)
- There are 7 teams already at 0.00%

 

[mtd#2]

Last week we had a gritty loss. Was this weekend full of grit or another 4 letter word ending in 'it'?

We fell to a 20% chance of making the finals, our best chance at this point in a season since 2019. This would rank as 12th best of our 27 seasons to date, and is lower than our average chance at this stage of the season (26%).

This week our comparible season were 2002, 2016, 2018 and 2019. As you can see, or you already knew, none of those seasons ended the way we wanted. In fact, we have never come back from a lower percentage than in 2005, when we reached a low of 27%.

Time to write some new history!

View attachment 39762




Key numbers are:
* 0.01% of minor premiership (-0.2% since last week (but still a chance!!!))
- Panthers are 63% (-9%)
- Warriors are 10% (-4%)
- Dolphins are 8% (+4%)
- Bulldogs are the 6th team to reach 0.00%

* 2% of finishing in top 4 (-4%)
- Panthers are 95% (-2%)
- Warriors are 60% (-15%)
- Dolphins are 56% (+5%)
- Titans are the 2nd team to reach 0.00%

* 20% of finishing in top 8 (-13%)
- Panthers are 99.9% (-)
- Warriors are 93% (-3%)
- Dolphins are 93% (+4%)
- Dragons are already at 0.00%

* 17% of finishing in bottom 4 (+5%)
- Dragons are 99.8% (+0.8%)
- Titans are 78% (+11%)
- Eels are 66% (+11%)
- Panthers are already at 0.00%

* 0.3% of wooden spoon (+0.1%)
- Dragons are 87% (+4%)
- Titans are 6% (+1%)
- Eels are 4% (-)
- There are 7 teams already at 0.00%

I am glad this is back.
Hopefully we are about to see an upward swing!