The J(uro) Curve

[Juro]

A win to us, combined with a loss to the Eels, gives us a little breathing space from the dreaded spoon. Our chances of getting the spoon are now down to 14%, the lowest since round 7\. It is also better than our position at this stage 3 other seasons (2001 - 21%, 2003 - 19%, 2009 - 15%).


Key results:
- 0% chance of minor premiership (Souths are 60%, Storm are 20% and Roosters are 11%. Eels, Dragons and Cowboys all were also at 0%)
- 0.6% chance of finishing in top 4
- 9% chance of finishing in top 8
- 14% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 58%, Dragons are 8%. Souths, Storm and Roosters are 0%)

 

[Juro]

Four wins from five games has got the graph heading in the right direction, and we are now more chance of making the top 8 than getting the spoon. This hasn't been the case since round 7.

We are now down to 9% of getting the spoon. Our chances of getting the spoon are now down to 9%, the lowest since round 5\. It is also better than our position at this stage in 3 other seasons (2001 - 10%, 2003 - 21%, 2009 - 14%). As the graph below shows, in most seasons, the chances of getting the spoon have continued to fall from this point onwards.


Key results:
- 0% chance of minor premiership (Souths are 73%, Roosters are 17% and Storm are 9%. The Broncos and Panthers join the Eels, Dragons and Cowboys at 0%)
- 1.2% chance of finishing in top 4
- 15% chance of finishing in top 8 (Souths are now 100%)
- 9% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 63%, Dragons are 14%. Souths, Storm and Roosters are 0%)

 

[Tbone]

Good work Juro. Juro Curve updates are now a weekly part of my routine, like team announcements on a Tuesday.

 

[TurnStyle]

ummm, so….all ords down?

 

[westy81]

love these graphs juro keep it up

 

[system]

Great work juro, but now we can actually look at making the 8 again can you focus your graphs on that, rather than showing graphs of our chances of getting the spoon.. Time to look forward with positivity!!
Keep up the weekly posts!!

_Posted using RoarFEED 2013_

 

[Wacko_Jacko]

Now that we have a few games under our belt for the season, I think it's time for me to start looking at where we are, similar to what I did last year (but with a snazzier title).

5 weeks in, 2 wins, 3 losses, -49 F/A, sitting 12th on the ladder. But that is only looking backwards. What are our chances of making it to the pointy end of the season?

Well, according to my model, we still have a 39% chance of making the top 8\. This is our 3rd worst effort after 5 rounds, being only better than 2012 (25%) and 2007 (27%), both being 1 win and 4 losses.

Here is the graph of our progress to date, compared against a few of the more recent and/or interesting years. Obviously, it is early days and anything could happen from here.


Other key results:
- 2% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 25%, Souths are 22%)
- 14% chance of finishing in top 4
- 8% chance of wooden spoon (Warriors are 15%, Panthers are 14%, Bulldogs are 13%)

Just a few details on my model. It is a stochastic model, simulating each game so that each team has a 50% chance of winning. Scores are a randomised distribution so the majority of wins are by narrower margins, with the chance of a blow-out still being present. I run 10,000 simulations and record the final position. Percentages are determined by the number of simulations giving a particular result.

I have tried having more complicated models, taking into account a higher chance of winning at home, but it doesn't have a significant impact on the results because most teams have a relatively even distribution of home and away games throughout the year. I've also taken into account the relative position on the table, giving an indication of relative strength, but this gives extreme results.

Must say I love a good graph

 

[supercoach]

A win over the Sharks and than the bye will have the graphs and the percentages going mad.Although this recent good form must have a dip soon,can't expect a team with so many rookies to keep the graph going up every week. anyway let's hope Parra and the Dragons keep up their crappy form and take the spoon out of play

 

[Juro]

I was tossing up whether to include the top 8 graph again, but didn't want to jinx it. If it gets above 20%, I'll stick it back in…

 

[system]

I was tossing up whether to include the top 8 graph again, but didn't want to jinx it. If it gets above 20%, I'll stick it back in…

Haha fair enough! It is true you should never change a single thing when your team is on a winning streak!!

_Posted using RoarFEED 2013_

 

[Juro]

Well, I'm glad I didn't post that graph of the top 8 chances last week, because it has taken another dive down to 7%, back below the chance of getting the spoon (9%). This places us in our 3rd worst year, better than 2001 (16%) and 2003 (15%).


Key results:
- 0% chance of minor premiership (Souths are 72%, Roosters are 19% and Storm are 8%. The Raiders, Sharks and Warriors join the list of Broncos, Cowboys, Dragons, Eels, Panthers and us at 0%)
- 0.2% chance of finishing in top 4 (Eels are 0%)
- 7% chance of finishing in top 8 (Souths are now 100%)
- 9% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 67%, Dragons are 15%. Souths, Roosters and Storm are 0%)

 

[pHyR3]

Could you tell us chances of a bottom 4 finish?

 

[Juro]

Could you tell us chances of a bottom 4 finish?

Started the year at 25%, reached a low of 19% after round 3, then a high of 78% after round 10\. Currently it is 62%.

 

[Aladinsane]

Love your work Juro.
So what points do you think the team has to get to make the 8?….28pts?
If so , we can only drop 2 more games out of the last 8 we have to play.

 

[pHyR3]

Love your work Juro.
So what points do you think the team has to get to make the 8?….28pts?
If so , we can only drop 2 more games out of the last 8 we have to play.

30 with our PD, and also I reckon this year will be very tight around the 8 if we are in contention cause the Warriors will be up there too.

 

[Juro]

With teams placed 6-10 all currently on 18 points and about 50% win rate (byes stuff it up at the moment), it is a pretty safe bet that 28 will be the cut off. Points differential is the killer for us though.

 

[Juro]

Despite having the bye, our numbers change due to other games. And with the Eels going down again, our chances of getting the spoon slip a little more. We're now down to 6%. This is our 2nd highest chance at this time of year, better than only 2001 (17%).


Key results:
- 0% chance of minor premiership (Souths are 76%, Roosters are 19% and Storm are 5%. The Broncos, Cowboys, Dragons, Eels, Panthers, Sharks, Warriors and Tigers are 0%)
- 0.1% chance of finishing in top 4 (Eels are 0%)
- 6% chance of finishing in top 8 (Souths are 100%)
- 59% chance of finishing in the bottom 4
- 6% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 75%, Dragons are 10%. Bulldogs, Sea Eagles and Sharks join the list of Souths, Roosters and Storm at 0%)

It is interesting to note that this is the highest chance ever that the Broncos could get the spoon (Round 18 onwards). They are currently 4%, with a previous worst of 0.1% in round 21, 2009.

 

[Eye_Of_Da_Tiger]

What's it say now that Benjis leaving???

 

[Juro]

What's it say now that Benjis leaving???

Might be a few less curves next year, without the flashes of brilliance and flushes of crap…

 

[Juro]

Back to 2nd last… Thankfully the Eels continue to lose too. Otherwise, our chances of getting the spoon would be a lot higher. We are now 7% chance of getting the spoon, our 2nd highest chance at this time of year, better than only 2002 (8%).


Key results:
- 0% chance of minor premiership (Souths are 59%, Roosters are 35% and Storm are 5%. The Raiders and Titans join the long list of teams on 0%)
- 0.01% chance of finishing in top 4 (Eels are 0%)
- 2% chance of finishing in top 8 (Souths and Roosters are 100%, Eels are now 0%)
- 74% chance of finishing in bottom 4
- 7% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 86%, Dragons are 3%. Knights and Raiders join the long list of teams on 0%)