The J(uro) Curve

[kh_canada]

I'm banking on that 15% to make the 8 at this stage. But wherever we finish, as long as we don't wooden spoon.

 

[Justo]

Should be renamed "The painfully hard to swallow, illustrated misery and damnation the future is bleak curve".

 

[diedpretty]

I love your stats Juro - could you please tells us which colour corresponds to which year on the graph - one of the interesting stats on there is the green line rd 15/16 we were an 80% chance of making the 8 and a 30% chance of running last - must have been a log jam on the table.

 

[Juro]

This season is becoming painfully hard to swallow. My graph just highlights it in pretty colours. It's like the spoon full of sugar…

Maybe I'll find some examples of other clubs storming back into contention after a horror start. Give us a bit of hope!

 

[Juro]

I love your stats Juro - could you please tells us which colour corresponds to which year on the graph - one of the interesting stats on there is the green line rd 15/16 we were an 80% chance of making the 8 and a 30% chance of running last - must have been a log jam on the table.

For the top 8, it is showing years 2009-2013 + 2005\. For the spoon, it is showing our seasons where we had the highest chance of getting the spoon (2001, 2002, 2003, 2007, 2009, 2012, 2013). Sorry, I had to reuse colours for the 2 graphs since there was not enough good colours to use.

You can see the legend on the right if you click on the graphs. For some reason it gets cut off when I post it. I might move it to the bottom next week and see whether that helps.

 

[Juro]

Well the results this weekend couldn't have been much worse, with 2 of the other 3 teams on 2 wins notching up a third, and the other only just went down. And with our big loss, the for and against continues to slide.

We are now down to 9% chance of making the top 8\. This is our worst effort after 9 rounds, behind 15% in 2003\. Our average chance at this stage of the season is 45%.

And with other results going against us, our chances of picking up the spoon have jumped to 27%. This is only the 2nd highest it has ever been, behind Round 14, 2003 when we reached 30%.

Just the one graph this week.


Key results:
- 0.02% chance of minor premiership (yes, still a mathematical possibility. Souths are 34%, Roosters are 23% and the Storm are 20%)
- 1% chance of finishing in top 4
- 9% chance of finishing in top 8
- 27% chance of wooden spoon (Warriors are 23%, Eels are 12%)

To show that our season is not over yet, here are the greatest season turnarounds over the years 2000-2012, where teams have made it to the top 8 from unlikely positions:

1\. Eels, Round 14, 2006: 2% - finished in 8th spot, lost in 1st round of the finals.
2\. Eels, Round 18, 2009: 4% - finished in 8th spot, made it all the way to the grand final
3\. Raiders, Round 24, 2004: 5% - finished in 8th spot, lost in 1st round of the finals.
4\. Raiders, Round 21, 2012: 6% - finished in 6th spot, lost in 2nd round of the finals.
5\. Warriors, Round 15, 2008: 6% - finished in 8th spot, lost in 3rd round of the finals.

The lowest % after 9 rounds for a team to make the finals was 16%, by the Eels in 2006\. So yes, we would need to write some new records…

Of course, Tigers, 2005 always gets a mention, but we were 26% chance of making the top 8 when we were at our lowest ebb that year.

 

[Gazman]

Maybe this post can be enlarged laminated and put in dressing sheds before the games

 

[happy_tiger]

Maybe this post can be enlarged laminated and put in dressing sheds before the games

I dunno Gaz ,do you think they need any more reminders how badly they are going in 2013 ??

 

[Juro]

We are breaking new ground here, as the graph below shows. Our chances of getting the spoon are at an all-time high of 34%, surpassing Round 14, 2003 when we reached 30%. Thankfully, the Warriors also lost heavily, moving us slightly closer to 15th.


Key results:
- 0% chance of minor premiership (still a mathematical possibility, but not showing up on my scenarios. Souths are up to 41%, Roosters are 26% and the Storm are 16%)
- 0.3% chance of finishing in top 4
- 5% chance of finishing in top 8
- 34% chance of wooden spoon (Warriors are 29%, Eels are 12%)

 

[happy_tiger]

Surprised the Juro Curve didn't have a nervous breakdown after the Souths game

How many decimal points does the curve have Juro ??

 

[Juro]

I run 10,000 simulations, so the percentages are calculated to 4 decimal places. Last week I quoted a 0.02% chance of winning the minor premiership, since there were 2 simulations which gave that answer out of 10,000.

 

[Juro]

The curve has turned!

Yet despite the win, we are still sitting at the bottom of the table. Our chances of getting the spoon are now 27%. This would have been much lower if the Warriors hadn't also won (and by such a big margin).


Key results:
- 0% chance of minor premiership (Souths are 35%, Storm are 25% and Roosters are 19%. Both the Eels and Warriors are 0.01%)
- 0.6% chance of finishing in top 4
- 6% chance of finishing in top 8
- 27% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 23%, Warriors are 21%. Souths are out of the running, assuming no salary cap breaches)

Interesting weekend, with the top 2 teams losing and the bottom 2 teams winning.

 

[pHyR3]

Also, we have a bye so it should go down even further right? Warriors play Broncos at Suncorp.

 

[Justo]

while it may only be 0.6%. It's still a chance. I'll hang on to that.

 

[Juro]

Also, we have a bye so it should go down even further right? Warriors play Broncos at Suncorp.

If the Warriors lose, our chances of avoiding the spoon will improve a bit. But if they win, we will slide back further. I don't take explicit notice of the bye, since all teams will have 2 by the end of the year.

 

[Eye_Of_Da_Tiger]

We need to win at least another 4 games to avoid wooden spoon.No disrespect to the curve I think it clever and allot of hard works gone into it. In the past 5 years teams that have got the spoon are on 18 and a very unfavorable f/a or less. We are on 6 and guaranteed 4 from the bye rounds. We need to win a third of our upcoming games at least…....

 

[Eye_Of_Da_Tiger]

Sorry on the flip side we need26/28 points to make the 8.Another 8/9 games making almost 3 quarters of the remaining games we need to win.Not impossible but not likely no other stat should matter 9-15th who cares same crap!!!

 

[Juro]

Despite us having the bye, results of other games have a say in where we will finish.

Our chances of getting the spoon crept fractionally higher but remain at 27%. If the Warriors had lost last night, the number probably would have been a bit lower.


Key results:
- 0% chance of minor premiership (Souths are 44%, Storm are 21% and Roosters are 17%. Warriors are also 0%)
- 0.7% chance of finishing in top 4
- 7% chance of finishing in top 8
- 27% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 24%, Warriors are 13%. Souths and Storm are 0%)

Of the teams running last after 12 rounds since 2000, only about half of them went on to get the spoon. The percentages shown below are the chance of getting the spoon after 12 rounds.

**Finished Last**
2012 - Eels (65%)
2010 - Storm (100% due to salary cap breach)
2006 - Rabbitohs (82%)
2005 - Knights (63%)
2004 - Rabbitohs (32%)
2003 - Rabbitohs (60%)
2000 - Cowboys (26%)

**Avoided the Spoon**
2011 - Raiders (19%) Titans finished last
2009 - Sharks (37%) Roosters finished last
2008 - Rabbitohs (59%) Bulldogs finished last
2007 - Roosters (30%) Panthers finished last
2002 - Rabbitohs (18%) Bulldogs finished last due to salary cap breach
2001 - Cowboys (42%) Panthers finished last

 

[Juro]

A two game winning streak and we are off the bottom of the table! Amazing that such a headline could bring me so much pleasure…

Our chances of getting the spoon are now down to 20%. This is marginally better than our position at this stage in 2003, when we were at 21% (3 wins, 9 losses, 1 bye, -141 F/A). Note, that 2003 game was Robbie Farah's debut.


Key results:
- 0.01% chance of minor premiership (back in the hunt! Souths are 40%, Storm are 28% and Roosters are 21%. Eels, Dragons and Cowboys all were at 0%)
- 0.9% chance of finishing in top 4
- 11% chance of finishing in top 8
- 20% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 35%, Cowboys are 15%. Souths, Storm and Roosters are 0%)

I'm thinking that the Cowboys chance of getting the spoon is better than us, largely thanks to their better F/A. That could be a deciding factor of who finishes where.

 

[Juro]

Our chances of getting the spoon are now 24%. This is only better than our position at this stage in 2003, when we were at 30% (3 wins, 10 losses, 1 bye, -143 F/A). If we lose this week, we'll probably be back in 'worst ever' territory. Other years' graphs all tend to improve about now…


Key results:
- 0% chance of minor premiership (Souths are 48%, Storm are 34% and Roosters are 11%. Eels, Dragons and Cowboys all were also at 0%)
- 0.4% chance of finishing in top 4
- 6% chance of finishing in top 8
- 24% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 45%, Dragons are 10%. Souths, Storm and Roosters are 0%)