The J(uro) Curve

[Juro]

Another loss has almost certainly ended any chance of making the semis. Yes, we can still mathematically do it, but whenever you say 'mathematically', you know you're in trouble.

But then, another loss has moved the Eels one step closer to back-to-back spoons. We are down to 5%, our 2nd highest chance at this time of year, better than only 2002 (17%).


Key results:
- 0% chance of minor premiership (Souths are 62%, Roosters are 36%. 11 teams on 0%, with the Bulldogs and Knights joining the list, but Sharks up to 0.01%)
- 0% chance of finishing in top 4 (along with the Cowboys, Dragons and Eels)
- 0.2% chance of finishing in top 8 (Souths and Roosters are 100%, Eels are 0%)
- 83% chance of finishing in bottom 4
- 5% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 91%, Dragons are 3%. 11 teams on 0%, with the Panthers, Titans and Warriors joining the list)

We hit 0% chance of a top 4 finish in round 20 this year. The earliest we have been out of the running for the top 4 was in 2003, where we hit 0% in round 16\. In 2001 and 2002, we hit 0% in round 18.

 

[Juro]

There's only one thing to play for now, and that's to avoid the spoon. With the Cowboys beating Souths, it looks like a 3 horse race to the bottom, with the Eels thankfully a long way in front.

With our latest loss, we are the closest we've been to the spoon at this time of year, even if only 5%. The previous worst was 2002 when we were 3%. Our chances of getting the spoon pretty much rest on the result of Friday's game. Win and we should be safe. Lose and our chances spike again.


Key results:
- 0% chance of minor premiership (Roosters have lept to 59%, Souths are 38%. 12 teams on 0%, with the Sharks rejoining the list)
- 0% chance of finishing in top 4 (along with the Broncos, Cowboys, Dragons and Eels)
- 0% chance of finishing in top 8 (joining the Eels on 0%. Souths and Roosters are 100%)
- 91% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 100%)
- 5% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 94%, Dragons are 2%. 11 teams on 0%, with the Panthers, Titans and Warriors joining the list)

We hit 0% chance of a top 8 finish in round 21 this year. That is the earliest we have been out of finals contention. The previous worst was in 2003, where we hit 0% in round 23.

 

[Juro]

I was wondering how much the curve would jump when we lost to the Eels. Thankfully, they are still a long way behind, on both points and F/A, so the number only rose to 6%.


Key results:
- 0% chance of minor premiership (Roosters are 79%, Souths are 18%, Sea Eagles are 2%, Storm are 1%. Everyone else is 0%)
- 0% chance of finishing in top 4 (Roosters are 100%. 7 teams are 0%, with the Panthers and Warriors joining last week's list)
- 0% chance of finishing in top 8 (with the Eels and now the Dragons on 0%. The Storm and Sea Eagles join Souths and Roosters on 100%)
- 98% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Eels are 100%)
- 6% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 89%, Dragons are 5%. 13 teams on 0%, with the Broncos and Cowboys joining the list)

 

[Gary_Bakerloo]

Kimmorley on NRL 360 was saying it likely this season that a team could fall in the 8 with just 26 points.

Means our season is alive and well. Just need to win next 6 matches.

 

[happy_tiger]

Kimmorley on NRL 360 was saying it likely this season that a team could fall in the 8 with just 26 points.

Means our season is alive and well. Just need to win next 6 matches.

I don't think the NRL is too keen on letting you use the points from the 2014 in 2013 ,but it could be worth a try

 

[Juro]

The difference in F/A between us and the Eels has narrowed after our big loss to the Roosters. So, despite the Eels losing, our chances of getting the spoon have actually increased a bit, up to 8%.

I've decided to do something a bit different this week, as looking at our worst season ever was getting too depressing. So the graph this week shows the chances of teams getting the wooden spoon this year. The 4 teams shown are the 3 teams still in contention plus the Warriors who were an early season possibility before turning their season around.


Key results:
- 0% chance of minor premiership (Roosters are 84%, Souths are 15%, Storm are 0.3%. Everyone else is 0%, including the Sea Eagles)
- 0% chance of finishing in top 4 (Roosters and Souths are 100%. 9 teams are 0%, with the Raiders and Titans joining last week's list)
- 0% chance of finishing in top 8 (with the Eels and the Dragons on 0%. The top 4 are on 100%)
- 100% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (with the Eels)
- 8% chance of wooden spoon (Eels are 89%, Dragons are 3%. Everyone else is on 0%)

 

[Juro]

24 rounds and every curve has flat-lined. The only thing we have to play for now is 14th or 15th.

As for the other teams:
Roosters: 1st - 3rd (62% chance of the minor premiership)
Rabbits: 1st - 3rd (38% chance of the minor premiership)
Storm: 2nd - 4th
Sea Eagles: 3rd - 5th (94% chance of top 4)
Sharks: 4th - 6th (6% chance of top 4)
Bulldogs: 5th - 9th (99.8% chance of top 8)
Knights: 6th - 13th (56% chance of top 8)
Cowboys: 6th - 13th (40% chance of top 8)
Titans: 6th - 13th (28% chance of top 8)
Panthers: 6th - 13th (28% chance of top 8)
Warriors: 7th - 13th (19% chance of top 8)
Raiders: 7th - 13th (18% chance of top 8)
Broncos: 7th - 13th (11% chance of top 8)
Tigers: 14th - 15th
Dragons: 14th - 15th
Eels: 16th (100% - no way of recovering from a 214 worse F/A compared to the Dragons)

Now that we have 7 wins for the year, that equals our tally from both 2002 and 2003,. We finished 13th out of 15 in both years.

We have scored an average of 15.7 per game for the year so far. Our worst completed season was 2001 (18.2). We would need to score 92 in our last 2 games to do better.

We have conceded an average of 27.5 per game for the year so far. Our worst completed season was also 2001 (28.7). We would need to concede 84 points in our last 2 games to break that record.

Our average points differential is -11.8 per game for the year so far. Our worst completed season was 2001 (10.5). We would need have a +8 F/A in our last 2 games to do better.

 

[Juro]

One week to go in a long and painful season. Like last week, the only thing we have to play for now is 14th or 15th.

As for the other teams:
Rabbits: 1st - 2nd (50% chance of the minor premiership)
Roosters: 1st - 2nd (50% chance of the minor premiership)
Sea Eagles: 3rd - 4th
Storm: 3rd - 4th
Bulldogs: 5th - 6th
Sharks: 5th - 6th
Knights: 7th - 10th (75% chance of top 8)
Cowboys: 7th - 10th (63% chance of top 8)
Titans: 7th - 11th (37% chance of top 8)
Warriors: 7th - 11th (25% chance of top 8)
Panthers: 9th - 13th
Raiders: 11th - 13th
Broncos: 11th - 13th
Tigers: 14th - 15th
Dragons: 14th - 15th
Eels: 16th (100% - no way of recovering from a 206 worse F/A compared to the Dragons)

Now that we have 7 wins for the year, that equals our tally from both 2002 and 2003,. We finished 13th out of 15 in both years.

We have scored an average of 15.8 per game for the year so far. Our worst completed season was 2001 (18.2). We would need to score 74 against the Cowboys to do better.

We have conceded an average of 27.7 per game for the year so far. Our worst completed season was also 2001 (28.7). We would need to concede 52 points against the Cowboys to break that record.

Our average points differential is -11.9 per game for the year so far. Our worst completed season was 2001 (-10.5). We would need have a +22 F/A against the Cowboys to do better.

 

[Eye_Of_Da_Tiger]

We have conceded an average of 27.7 per game for the year so far. Our worst completed season was also 2001 (28.7). We would need to concede 52 points against the Cowboys to break that record.

Lol we did concede 52 points on the nose.

 

[Juro]

We have conceded an average of 27.7 per game for the year so far. Our worst completed season was also 2001 (28.7). We would need to concede 52 points against the Cowboys to break that record.

Lol we did concede 52 points on the nose.

Come on, don't exaggerate. We only conceded 50!

Looking back over the year, it's been a pretty painful one for us. Our season peaked in Round 3 when we were 2-1 up. At that stage we were 6% of coming 1st, 28% of coming top 4 and 56% of making the finals.

But how about other teams?

**Chokers:**
1st place - The Rabbitohs were at 76% to get the minor premiership in Round 18, when they were 4 points clear with a better F/A than the Roosters.
Top 4 - The top 4 has been set for most of the year, so there were no real chokers here. The Knights were the closest to making the top 4 who then missed out. They were at 46% in Round 7.
Top 8 - The Titans choked on making the finals, being at 79% in Round 15 before losing 8 of their last 11 games to finish 9th. The Raiders also looked like they had made it when they were at 73% in Round 20 before losing their last 6 games.

**Clutch teams:**
1st place - The Roosters were always in the hunt for the minor premiership. The furthest away they ever got was 4% after their Round 1 loss. Later in the season, they were 11% after Round 14 before winning 9 of their last 11 games.
Top 4 - Of the top 4 teams, the only one who was not above 25% for the whole year was the Roosters who dipped to 19% after Round 1.
Top 8 - The Cowboys came from nowhere to make the top 8, being as low as 2% in Round 20\. They were sitting in 13th place, 6 points behind 8th place with a much worse F/A. They then went on to win their last 6 games. The fairytale died last Saturday though…
Wooden spoon - We were closest to getting the spoon before pulling away. We got to 34% in Round 10\. We only won 5 more games for the year but it was enough to get past the Eels who lost 12 of their last 14 games.

The most interesting stat I can come up with for 2014 goes to the Warriors. They would be a cruel team to follow. They were outside the top 8 for all of the year, but always stayed in contention, having a 25% chance of making the top 8 leading into Round 26.

 

[Eye_Of_Da_Tiger]

Sorry Juro the glasses were not on or I had one to many

 

[Juro]

BUMP!

Okay, 3 weeks in, 2 wins, 1 loss. The same as we were last year. In fact, the same as we were in 8 of our first 14 years (2001, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2013). And of those 8 years, we only made it to 3 wins, 1 loss on 3 occasions.

Taking for and against into it though, this has been our best ever start to the year. We are currently +19\. Our previous best after 3 games was +8, in both 2008 and 2011\. So GO TEAM!!! This is backed up by my model showing a 59% chance of making the top 8\. This is only bettered by 2001 (64%) and 2002 (63%), due to there only being 14 and 15 teams competing in those years.

Here is the graph of our progress to date, showing the chances of making the top 8, compared against a few of the more recent years. Obviously, it is early days and anything could happen from here.


Other key results:
- 8% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 16%, Storm are 14%)
- 31% chance of finishing in top 4
- 3% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 16%, Knights are 15%)

At this stage of the season, our chance of winning the minor premiership is the 2nd highest of all seasons, behind 2001 (remember only 14 teams). Our chance of a top 4 finish is 3rd best, behind 2001 and 2002\. But our chance of the spoon is the lowest ever at this stage.

And our chance of making the finals is higher than at any point during 2013.

Oh, how I hope the curve goes in a different direction to last year! :sign:

 

[pHyR3]

it looks likes it's mirroring 2010/11, let's hope it continues that way but with a slightly different ending given braith is now on our team :wink:

 

[tig_prmz]

If someone can help out a newbie why were there only 14 teams in 2001? Souths didn't come back yet?

_Posted using RoarFEED 2013_

 

[TurnStyle]

thanks very much juro! loves me some j curve!

 

[Juro]

If someone can help out a newbie why were there only 14 teams in 2001? Souths didn't come back yet?

_Posted using RoarFEED 2013_

Yes, that's right. Souths were kicked out at the end of 1999, when Balmain and the Magpies merged. They were let back into the comp at the start of 2002.

 

[Juro]

Two wins, two losses, just like in 2001, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2013\. In only 2 of those 8 seasons, we won our 5th game. We are mirroring 2013 in going L-W-W-L.

As the graph shows, we have dipped back below 50% chance of making the top 8\. We are now sitting on 49%, our 10th best at this stage.


Other key results:
- 5% chance of minor premiership (Dragons, Broncos and Sea Eagles are all 11%)
- 23% chance of finishing in top 4
- 5% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 24%, Cowboys are 11%)

 

[Juro]

Another stirring underdog effort by the team, given virtually no chance of winning. Well done to the hardy souls who stood on the hill, cheering their team to victory.

We are now three wins, two losses, breaking the pattern from 2013\. After 5 rounds, we have only been in a better position on three occassions: 2000 (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), 2005 (3 wins, 1 bye, 1 loss), 2010 (4 wins, 1 loss). We were also 3 and 2 in 2001, 2002 and 2011.

As the graph shows, we have bounced back above 50% chance of making the top 8\. We are now sitting on 58%, marginally below where we were after week 3.


Other key results:
- 8% chance of minor premiership (Titans are 14%, having only lost 1 game, to us)
- 31% chance of finishing in top 4
- 3% chance of wooden spoon (Knights and Sharks are 17%)

It is interesting to note that only 2 teams from last year's top 8 are currently in the top 8 (Bulldogs and Sea Eagles).

We have scored 143 points so far. Last year it took us 11 games to get to 145 (123 after 10 games).

 

[Juro]

Another good win, and sitting nicely in the top 4\. We are now four wins, two losses. After 6 rounds, we have only been in a better position on one occassion: 2000 (4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). We were also 4 and 2 in 2010\. In 2002, we were 3 and 2 with a bye thrown in.

So you'd expect the curve to look pretty good, and you'd be right. We are now sitting on 68%, our highest % since round 23, 2012.


Other key results:
- 10% chance of minor premiership (our highest % since Round 5, 2010) (Titans are 19%)
- 37% chance of finishing in top 4
- 2% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 23%)

Pat Richards sits atop the point scorers for this season, on 70 points. The Sharks have scored a combined total of 69.

 

[Juro]

Three wins on the trot now, and this is now our best ever start to the season. Our chances of making the top 8 are 74%, fractionally better than where we were in 2000 after 7 rounds. Mind you, back then 8 out of 14 teams made the finals.

Not only that, our chances of the minor premiership are now 14%, the highest since Round 16, 2000\. And our chances of getting the spoon are down below 1% already, at 0.7%. This is the lowest it has been so early in the season (apart from 2010, when the Storm had already been handed the spoon).


Key results:
- 14% chance of minor premiership (Bulldogs are 17%, Sea Eagles and Titans are 13%)
- 46% chance of finishing in top 4
- 74% chance of finishing in top 8
- 0.7% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 29%)

What a start to the season. It is hard to believe how far we have come from last year, where we only managed 7 wins for the entire season. Our last 5 wins in 2013 were surrounded by 16 losses.