The J(uro) Curve

[Juro]

Yes, with that loss, we are again into uncharted territory. We are now in our worst season to date, with the 2nd worst being 2013 where we were 25% chance of playing finals at this stage.


Key results:
- 0.5% chance of minor premiership (Dragons are 25%, Storm are 22%, Knights are 0.1%)
- 5% chance of finishing in top 4 (Dragons are 65%, Storm are 61%, Knights are 2%)
- 22% chance of finishing in top 8 (Dragons are 88%, Storm are 87%, Knights are 12%)
- 48% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 65%, Titans are 62%, Dragons are 2%)
- 13% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 24%, Titans are 22%, Dragons are 0.2%)

I've added an extra line to the graph, showing our historical average chance of making the top 8 (the dashed black line). No surprise to see it trailing down as the season goes on…

 

[Tim Sheens]

Oh well, we are a below average team, but with a twenty two percent chance of finals I am not giving up yet after all the crap we have had to start the season. Bring on the wet sail.

 

[Chicken_Faced_Killa]

All it takes is to string 4 or 5 wins together and you are right back in the mix unfortunately I can't see it happening this year. I would take 2 on the trot at this stage

 

[Juro]

A win certainly helps the curve, but for it to actually curve up (instead of zigzagging) we need 2 (or more) in a row. What is the possibility?


Key results:
- 0.5% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 30%, Dragons are 18%, Knights are 0.01%)
- 7% chance of finishing in top 4 (Storm are 70%, Dragons are 56%, Knights are 1%)
- 27% chance of finishing in top 8 (Storm are 91%, Dragons are 84%, Knights are 8%)
- 40% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 72%, Titans are 54%, Storm are 1%)
- 9% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 32%, Titans are 15%, Storm are 0.1%)

With the win, we have moved to our 4th worst first 8 rounds in the club's history. Worse are 2013 (15%), 2003 (16%) and 2016 (17%). Yes, 3 out of our worst 4 years have been in the last 5 years in the comp.

 

[Juro]

Lose win lose win lose and we zigzag our way out of the season…


Key results:
- 0.2% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 38%, Sharks are 11%, Knights are 0.02%)
- 4% chance of finishing in top 4 (Storm are 78%, Dragons are 47%, Knights are 0.4%)
- 19% chance of finishing in top 8 (Storm are 94%, Dragons are 79%, Knights are 4%)
- 49% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 81%, Panthers are 60%, Storm are 1%)
- 11% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 40%, Panthers are 18%, Storm are 0.01%)

This is now our 3rd worst season to date, with the worst 2 being 2013 (9%) and 2003 (16%). Our lowest point in our 2005 season was 27% in Round 15.

 

[Tweed_Tiger]

Really need to string a few together, its a pity we could of been 4-0 under cleary and it would look alot better.

 

[Juro]

Welcome back to the J-curve. Before looking at what may happen in 2018, I want to cast my eye back to how 2017 unfolded (not sure this is such a good idea!)

**MINOR PREMIERSHIP**
The Storm were in front in this race for almost all of the season. A few other teams gave them an early fight but were never really in contention.

The Storm's chances of getting the minor premiership were at their lowest before the season started (6%). Other teams peaked (at the given Round) at:
- Dragons: 25% (7)
- Sharks: 25% (12)
- Roosters: 22% (16)
- Broncos: 19% (11)
- Cowboys: 12% (5)
- Eels: 12% (2)
- Sea Eagles: 10% (19)
**- Wests Tigers: 9% (1)**
- Warriors: 8% (1)
- Rabbitohs: 8% (3)
- Raiders: 6% (7)
- Bulldogs, Knights, Panthers and Titans: 6% (before season started)


 

[Kul]

yasss glad this is back

 

[Juro]

**TOP 4**
The Storm were of course early favourites to finish in the top 4\. They had reached 90% by Round 15 before reaching 100% in Round 23\. The Roosters and Broncos were also always likely but only reached 100% in Round 25 and 26 respectively. The real surprise packet was the Eels, who were in all sorts of trouble early, before winning 11 of their last 13 games.


Teams were at their lowest as follows:
Eels - 7% (Round 14)
Broncos - 17% (5)
Roosters and Storm - 25% (season kickoff)

 

[Juro]

**TOP 4**
With the Eels coming from nowhere, some other team must have choked close to the line. And that team was the Sharks. They were in a strong position for most of the season, sitting above 50% from about Round 10 to Round 22\. Then they lost 3 of their last 5 games, finishing the season in 5th place. The Dragons were early standouts, reaching 65% after winning 6 of their first 7 games. They could only manage another 6 wins for the rest of the season, though.


Teams who didn't make the top 4 were at their highest as follows:
- Sharks: 74% (Round 21)
- Dragons: 65% (7)
- Sea Eagles: 57% (17)
- Cowboys: 54% (20)
**- Wests Tigers: 31% (1)**
- Rabbitohs: 31% (3)
- Raiders: 31% (7)
- Warriors: 30% (1)
- Bulldogs: 26% (7)
- Panthers: 25% (4)
- Knights and Titans: 25% (season kickoff)

 

[Juro]

More to come (hopefully tomorrow)

 

[old_man_tiger]

Looking forward to it mate

 

[jrtiger]

One of my favourite threads. Welcome back Juro!

 

[Sco77y]

Thanks Juro, I'm sure this season will be looking more positive for us so far.

 

[westy81]

I was only thinking just the other day where the curve is this year can't wait to see the stats so far this year

 

[Russell]

Thanks Juro - looking forward to the curve.

 

[oldprop]

Looking forward to this. Love those graphs.

 

[mike]

Can’t wait to see this years. We might even make the finals and break your hoodoo.. :slight_smile:

 

[Juro]

**TOP 8**
Moving on to the top 8 now, the graphs get a bit more crowded. Most teams that made the 8 were looking likely for most of the season. The Storm had reached 90% by Round 8 before reaching 100% in Round 20\. The Sharks were the second team to reach 90% and stay there, doing this in Round 11.

The Eels were bouncing around 50% for the first half of the season before storming home. The Panthers though were the real late chargers, being as low as 19% after Round 17 before winning their next 7 games straight.


Teams were at their lowest as follows:
- Panthers: 13% (Round 9)
- Eels: 32% (6)
- Sea Eagles: 34% (2)
- Sharks: 42% (1)
- Broncos: 44% (5)
Cowboys, Roosters and Storm - 50% (season kickoff)

 

[Juro]

**TOP 8**
Now looking at the teams to miss the finals, again there isn't a lot to talk about. Most teams that missed the 8 never looked likely. The Knights had reached 10% by Round 8 before reaching 100% in Round 18\. And, sad to say but Wests Tigers were the second team to reach 10% and stay there, doing this in Round 11.

The only real standout on the graph was the Dragons, who reached as high as 88% after Round 7 and only fell below 50% in Rounds 22, 24, 25 and 26\. That must have hurt…


Teams were at their highest as follows:
- Dragons: 88% (Round 7)
- Raiders: 64% (7)
- Rabbitohs: 58% (3)
**- Wests Tigers: 58% (1)**
- Bulldogs: 58% (7)
- Warriors: 57% (1)
- Knights: 51% (3)
- Titans: 50% (season kickoff)