The J(uro) Curve

[Juro]

Pull up! Pull up!!!


Is this the win that kicks our season in the right direction? No, you don't need to answer that. Going off the model, we have a little bit more chance this week, improving to 37%. This still leaves us 6% below our overall average, and is only our 11th best season.

Key numbers after 14 rounds:

* 0.1% chance of minor premiership (-%)
– Storm are 62% (+13%)
– Rabbitohs are 16% (-11%)
– Roosters are 12% (+3%)
– Titans join the Bulldogs on 0.00%

* 7% chance of finishing in top 4 (+1%)
– Storm are 96% (+5%)
– Rabbitohs are 76% (-7%)
– Roosters are 68% (+13%)
– Raiders are 56% (+10%)
– Bulldogs are the first team to reach 0.00%

* 37% chance of finishing in top 8 (+7%)
– Storm are 99.8% (+0.7%)
– Rabbitohs are 97% (-1%)
– Roosters are 95% (+5%)
– Raiders are 92% (+6%)
– Sea Eagles are 76% (+12%)
– Knights are 68% (-9%)
– Sharks are 65% (-7%)
– Eels are 55% (+14%)
– Cowboys are 27% (-9%)
– Panthers are 23% (+6%)
– Warriors are 22% (+5%)
– Broncos are 20% (-13%)
– Dragons are 19% (-11%)
– Titans are 5% (-5%)
– Bulldogs are 1% (-1%)

* 23% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (-9%)
– Bulldogs are 92% (+7%)
– Titans are 69% (+9%)
– Dragons are 42% (+11%)
– Broncos are 40% (+11%)
– Warriors are 39% (-10%)
– Storm are 0.01% (-0.01%)

* 2% chance of wooden spoon (-3%)
– Bulldogs are 56% (+12%)
– Titans are 18% (+3%)
– Dragons are 6% (+1%)
– Broncos are 6% (+2%)
– 3 teams are on 0.00%

 

[happy_tiger]

Looking at the Curve's prediction we are in line for another 9th place finish

 

[tiger_scott]

@happy_tiger Surely we can sneak in above the Sea Eagles or Eels? But I see your point (9th on %)

 

[Juro]

@happy_tiger Surely we can sneak in above the Sea Eagles or Eels? But I see your point (9th on %)

It is showing 9th because we are in 9th. There are still 11 rounds of football left to decide final placings. Time will tell for sure...

 

[Juro]

Two wins in a row makes such a difference. The curve has jumped back above our average since 2000, and we are now above any of the last 4 years.


Key numbers after 15 rounds:

* 0.2% chance of minor premiership (+0.1%)
– Storm are 76% (+15%)
– Rabbitohs are 9% (-7%)
– Roosters are 6% (-6%)
– Knights are 2% (+1%)
– Broncos and Warriors join join the Bulldogs and Titans on 0.00%

* 11% chance of finishing in top 4 (+4%)
– Storm are 98% (+2%)
– Rabbitohs are 69% (-7%)
– Roosters are 59% (-9%)
– Raiders are 46% (-10%)
– Sea Eagles are 40% (+12%)
– Bulldogs are the first team to reach 0.00%

* 46% chance of finishing in top 8 (+9%)
– Storm are 99.97% (+0.1%)
– Rabbitohs are 96% (-1%)
– Roosters are 92% (-3%)
– Raiders are 87% (-4%)
– Sea Eagles are 84% (+9%)
– Knights are 78% (+10%)
– Eels are 63% (+8%)
– Sharks are 55% (-10%)
– Panthers are 30% (+7%)
– Dragons are 25% (+6%)
– Cowboys are 16% (-10%)
– Warriors are 14% (-8%)
– Broncos are 11% (-8%)
– Titans are 2% (-3%)
– Bulldogs are 1% (-)

* 14% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (-9%)
– Bulldogs are 88% (-4%)
– Titans are 81% (+11%)
– Broncos are 52% (+12%)
– Warriors are 47% (+8%)
– Cowboys are 40% (+10%)
– Dragons are 31% (-11%)
– Storm are the first team to reach 0.00% (-0.01%)

* 1% chance of wooden spoon (-1%)
– Bulldogs are 42% (-13%)
– Titans are 28% (+10%)
– Broncos are 11% (+4%)
– Warriors are 7% (+2%)
– Cowboys are 5% (+2%)
– Dragons are 3% (-2%)
– 3 teams are on 0.00%

 

[Juro]

Sorry for the break in transmission. A week down at the snow followed by a week of making up for a week off made it too hard to get back to here. What have I missed? Oh I see...

Round 15: 46%
Round 16: 37%
Round 17: 28%
Round 18: 17%


Key numbers after 18 rounds (cumulative change from Round 15 in brackets):

* 0.00% chance of minor premiership (-0.2%)
– Storm are 92% (+16%)
– Rabbitohs are 4% (-5%)
– Raiders are 2% (-1%)
– Roosters are 1% (-4%)
– Sea Eagles are 0.3% (-2%)
– Cowboys (Round 16), Dragons (Round 16), Sharks (Round 17), Eels (Round 18), Knights (Round 18), Panthers (Round 18) and we (Round 18) have joined the Bulldogs, Broncos, Titans and Warriors on 0.00%

* 0.4% chance of finishing in top 4 (-10%)
– Storm are 100% (+2%)
– Rabbitohs are 87% (+18%)
– Roosters are 75% (+16%)
– Raiders are 72% (+26%)
– Sea Eagles are 36% (-5%)
– Eels are 11% (-6%)
– Panthers are 9% (+5%)
– Knights are 4% (-30%)
– Warriors are 2% (+1%)
– Broncos are 1% (+1%)
– Sharks are 1% (-13%)
– Cowboys are 0.4% (-1%)
– Dragons are 0.01% (-3%)
– Titans (Round 17) join the Bulldogs on 0.00%

* 17% chance of finishing in top 8 (-29%)
– Storm are 100% (+0.03%) (Round 16)
– Rabbitohs are 99.7% (+4%)
– Roosters are 99% (+7%)
– Raiders are 99% (+11%)
– Sea Eagles are 92% (+7%)
– Eels are 72% (+10%)
– Panthers are 66% (+36%)
– Knights are 49% (-29%)
– Warriors are 30% (+16%)
– Broncos are 30% (+18%)
– Sharks are 24% (-32%)
– Cowboys are 18% (+2%)
– Dragons are 5% (-20%)
– Bulldogs are 1% (-)
– Titans are 0.1% (-2%)

* 35% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+21%)
– Titans are 95% (+14%)
– Bulldogs are 89% (+1%)
– Dragons are 63% (+32%)
– Cowboys are 35% (-5%)
– Sharks are 27% (+16%)
– Broncos are 20% (-32%)
– Warriors are 19% (-28%)
– Knights are 10% (+7%)
– Panthers are 4% (-20%)
– Eels are 3% (-3%)
– Sea Eagles are 0.2% (-1%)
– Rabbitohs (Round 17), Raiders (Round 17) and Roosters (Round 17) join the Storm on 0.00% (-0.01%)

* 2% chance of wooden spoon (+1%)
– Titans are 51% (+23%)
– Bulldogs are 32% (-11%)
– Dragons are 10% (+7%)
– Cowboys are 3% (-2%)
– Sharks are 1% (+1%)
– Broncos are 1% (-10%)
– Warriors are 0.5% (-6%)
– Knights are 0.2% (+0.1%)
– Eels are 0.03% (-0.2%)
– Panthers are 0.01% (-2%)
– Raiders (Round 17) and Sea Eagles (Round 17) join 3 teams on 0.00%

 

[NT_Tiger]

That's more like it.
Now I'll go back to my mediocre cup of coffee.

 

[Harvey]

The traditional post origin plummet

 

[Curly_Tiger]

Who says the Wests Tigers aren't consistent?

 

[gallagher]

The traditional post origin plummet

Isn't it normally pre/mid/post origin plummet?

 

[Juro]

This season continues to follow the script. The win on Friday pushes us back closer to our club average (32%). We are still alive, on 26%. Should we expect another win this Thursday then???


Key numbers after 19 rounds:

* 0.00% chance of minor premiership (-)
– Storm are 85% (-7%)
– Rabbitohs are 8% (+4%)
– Raiders are 3% (+2%)
– Roosters are 3% (+2%)
– Sea Eagles are 0.3% (-)

* 0.1% chance of finishing in top 4 (-0.3%)
– Storm are 99.95% (-0.05%)
– Rabbitohs are 91% (+3%)
– Roosters are 81% (+6%)
– Raiders are 77% (+4%)
– Sea Eagles are 37% (+1%)
– Eels are 11% (-1%)
– Panthers are 2% (-7%)
– Broncos are 1% (-)
– Knights are 1% (-3%)
– Sharks are 1% (-)
– Warriors are 0.2% (-2%)
– Cowboys and Dragons join the Bulldogs and Titans on 0.00%

* 26% chance of finishing in top 8 (+9%)
– Rabbitohs join the Storm on 100%
– Roosters are 99.9% (+1%)
– Raiders are 99.9% (+1%)
– Sea Eagles are 97% (+5%)
– Eels are 85% (+13%)
– Panthers are 52% (-14%)
– Broncos are 43% (+14%)
– Knights are 35% (-14%)
– Sharks are 34% (+10%)
– Warriors are 17% (-13%)
– Cowboys are 10% (-8%)
– Dragons are 2% (-3%)
– Bulldogs are 0.1% (-0.4%)
– Titans are the first team to reach 0.00% (-0.1%)

* 21% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (-13%)
– Titans are 98% (+3%)
– Bulldogs are 95% (+6%)
– Dragons are 74% (+11%)
– Cowboys are 43% (+8%)
– Warriors are 27% (+8%)
– Sharks are 14% (-14%)
– Knights are 13% (+3%)
– Broncos are 9% (-11%)
– Panthers are 6% (+2%)
– Eels are 0.4% (-2%)
– Sea Eagles are the 5th team to reach 0.00%

* 0.5% chance of wooden spoon (-2%)
– Titans are 55% (+4%)
– Bulldogs are 33% (+1%)
– Dragons are 10% (-)
– Cowboys are 2% (-1%)
– Sharks are 0.1% (-1%)
– Broncos are 0.01% (-1%)
– Warriors are 0.4% (-0.1%)
– Knights are 0.03% (-0.2%)
– Panthers are 0.02% (+0.01%)
– Eels are the 6th team to reach 0.00%

With 6 rounds to go, things are starting to solidify rapidly. You can lock in the Storm and Rabbitohs (100%) and virtually lock in the Roosters, Raiders and Sea Eagles (>95%). Realistically, we are one of 6 teams vying for 2 spots. Add together the percentages of the Panthers, Broncos, Knights, Sharks, us and the Warriors (in that order) and you get 206% (ie 2 spots). You could spread the net a little wider and include the Eels (85%) and Cowboys (10%) to make it 8 teams vying for 3 spots, but it would take an impressive collapse to make the Eels miss out.

 

[Curly_Tiger]

There have been a few false dawns in previous years around this time of year that gave us hope then came to nothing
You'd have to think we are a chance in our next 5 though, Manly the toughest but given I live down the beaches, the most important game of the year for me
Maybe this dead cat can bounce all the way into the 8, I'm optimistic!

 

[happy_tiger]

if we get to 100% we need to have this added to one of the modern day miracles of the world

 

[Juro]

Out of the teams still in the running, we are not the least likely (based on lowest % to make the 8 at any time this year). Rankings are:

Panthers: 6% (Round 10)
Cowboys: 10% (Round 19)
Broncos: 11% (Round 15)
Warriors: 14% (Round 15)
Wests Tigers: 17% (Round 18)

It has been a strange old season...

 

[Juro]

Nice win last night. However, our fate relies so heavily on other results. We could be anywhere from 30% to 50% depending on how the rest of the round pans out.

 

[Juro]

Wow! The curve turned the right way, seriously! A massive jump, thanks to our win and most of the other results also falling our way. We now find ourselves at 46%. Where will it go from here???


Key numbers after 20 rounds:

* 0.00% chance of minor premiership (-)
– Storm are 92% (+8%)
– Roosters are 3% (-)
– Raiders are 3% (-)
– Rabbitohs are 2% (-7%)
– Sea Eagles are 0.1% (-0.2%)

* 0.1% chance of finishing in top 4 (-)
– Storm are 100.00% (+0.05%)
– Roosters are 87% (+6%)
– Raiders are 84% (+7%)
– Rabbitohs are 75% (-16%)
– Sea Eagles are 43% (+6%)
– Eels are 11% (-)
– Sharks are 0.5% (-0.2%)
– Panthers are 0.04% (-2%)
– Broncos are 0.02% (-1%)
– Knights are 0.01% (-1%)
– Warriors are the 5th team to reach 0.00%

* 46% chance of finishing in top 8 (+20%)
– Roosters and Raiders join the Storm and Rabbitohs on 100.00%
– Sea Eagles are 99.7% (+3%)
– Eels are 95% (+9%)
– Sharks are 53% (+19%)
– Panthers are 41% (-11%)
– Broncos are 30% (-13%)
– Knights are 24% (-11%)
– Warriors are 9% (-8%)
– Cowboys are 4% (-6%)
– Dragons are 0.2% (-1%)
– Bulldogs are 0.1% (-)

* 6% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (-16%)
– Titans are 99.7% (+2%)
– Bulldogs are 87% (-7%)
– Dragons are 83% (+9%)
– Cowboys are 54% (+10%)
– Warriors are 33% (+6%)
– Knights are 15% (+2%)
– Broncos are 11% (+3%)
– Panthers are 7% (+1%)
– Sharks are 3% (-10%)
– Eels are the 6th team to reach 0.00%

* 0.00% chance of wooden spoon (-0.5%)
– Titans are 76% (+21%)
– Bulldogs are 12% (-20%)
– Dragons are 10% (-)
– Cowboys are 1% (-)
– Warriors are 0.4% (-)
– Broncos are 0.03% (+0.02%)
– Knights are 0.03% (-)
– Us, Panthers and Sharks join 6 teams on 0.00%

With 5 rounds to go, we still have 6 teams vying for 2 spots. Thankfully, we are second in the group, just behind the Sharks. Warriors are the 6th team, and virtually out of it. It is amazing that all teams other than the Titans are still at least mathematically still a chance. Glad we are well and truly in the fray!

 

[Juro]

FYI, if we had only won by 1 point, we would have been on 42%.

If we had lost by 1 point, we would have been on 18%.

 

[Kul]

Wow! The curve turned the right way, seriously! A massive jump, thanks to our win and most of the other results also falling our way. We now find ourselves at 46%. Where will it go from here???


Key numbers after 20 rounds:

* 0.00% chance of minor premiership (-)
– Storm are 92% (+8%)
– Roosters are 3% (-)
– Raiders are 3% (-)
– Rabbitohs are 2% (-7%)
– Sea Eagles are 0.1% (-0.2%)

* 0.1% chance of finishing in top 4 (-)
– Storm are 100.00% (+0.05%)
– Roosters are 87% (+6%)
– Raiders are 84% (+7%)
– Rabbitohs are 75% (-16%)
– Sea Eagles are 43% (+6%)
– Eels are 11% (-)
– Sharks are 0.5% (-0.2%)
– Panthers are 0.04% (-2%)
– Broncos are 0.02% (-1%)
– Knights are 0.01% (-1%)
– Warriors are the 5th team to reach 0.00%

* 46% chance of finishing in top 8 (+20%)
– Roosters and Raiders join the Storm and Rabbitohs on 100.00%
– Sea Eagles are 99.7% (+3%)
– Eels are 95% (+9%)
– Sharks are 53% (+19%)
– Panthers are 41% (-11%)
– Broncos are 30% (-13%)
– Knights are 24% (-11%)
– Warriors are 9% (-8%)
– Cowboys are 4% (-6%)
– Dragons are 0.2% (-1%)
– Bulldogs are 0.1% (-)

* 6% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (-16%)
– Titans are 99.7% (+2%)
– Bulldogs are 87% (-7%)
– Dragons are 83% (+9%)
– Cowboys are 54% (+10%)
– Warriors are 33% (+6%)
– Knights are 15% (+2%)
– Broncos are 11% (+3%)
– Panthers are 7% (+1%)
– Sharks are 3% (-10%)
– Eels are the 6th team to reach 0.00%

* 0.00% chance of wooden spoon (-0.5%)
– Titans are 76% (+21%)
– Bulldogs are 12% (-20%)
– Dragons are 10% (-)
– Cowboys are 1% (-)
– Warriors are 0.4% (-)
– Broncos are 0.03% (+0.02%)
– Knights are 0.03% (-)
– Us, Panthers and Sharks join 6 teams on 0.00%

With 5 rounds to go, we still have 6 teams vying for 2 spots. Thankfully, we are second in the group, just behind the Sharks. Warriors are the 6th team, and virtually out of it. It is amazing that all teams other than the Titans are still at least mathematically still a chance. Glad we are well and truly in the fray!

How are we places compared to all previous seasons, at this point in the season, excluding years where we made the finals?

 

[Curly_Tiger]

It's officially the best Wests Tigers team over the last 5 years at the end of round 20
One of us, Panthers and Sharks will miss out. We all play a top 5 side although Manly is probably the pick, they have Roosters & Raiders. We play each other at least once, Sharks have both Tigers & Panthers. Sharks have three home games, us and the Panthers have 2
All in all, it's a slight advantage Tigers, keep those fingers crossed

 

[Moh]

@Curly_Tiger I assume ladder wise?

But essentially an identical season to last (on paper), except we have conceded more and scored more. Same points, and almost identical P/D to 2018 after 20 rounds.