The J(uro) Curve

[Sart0ri]

Does this take the strength of the teams we play in the rest of the comp into account?

 

[JD Tiger]

Thanks Juro, fingers crossed this is the year...

 

[Juro]

Does this take the strength of the teams we play in the rest of the comp into account?

All games are a toss of the coin, 50% win/lose scenario, with a random adjustment to the for and against. It takes into account the games already played, then simulates the rest of the season. I've tried in the past to take account of team strengths and home ground advantage, but it didn't really affect the end result significantly.

 

[Juro]

Why did you do this we haven't made the finals once since you started lmao

One of these days the curve will go the right way... Surely... Please?

 

[TheDaBoss]

If we win against Panthers and bring it to a 3 game winning streak

how much does that affect the % ?

 

[Juro]

If we win against Panthers and bring it to a 3 game winning streak

how much does that affect the % ?

You'd probably be looking at another jump of more than 10%, but this would also depend on the results of other games.

 

[mike]

Yay the curve is back !!!!

 

[Hangonaminute]

Love the curve, but it's always curving the wrong way halfway through the season

 

[Elderslie_Tiger]

If we win against Panthers and bring it to a 3 game winning streak

how much does that affect the % ?

And a win against Souffs a week later the thing will explode

 

[happy_tiger]

If we win against Panthers and bring it to a 3 game winning streak

how much does that affect the % ?

And a win against Souffs a week later the thing will explode

I'll explode if that happens .....Geo will become a monk .....Hobbo will sell the Japanese Princess

 

[Elderslie_Tiger]

There's a lot of symmetry year-to-year in those curves.
We seem to follow a similar pattern every year.

Thats what Madge has been saying things have got to change and so far so good

 

[old_man_tiger]

Love your work Juro.
Is it possible to line up the final round and have irregular starts?
All seasons would end at 0 and this season would start at -19.

 

[JD Tiger]

Love your work Juro.
Is it possible to line up the final round and have irregular starts?
All seasons would end at 0 and this season would start at -19.

Good pickup, being less rounds this year, something like that would make a lot of sense.

 

[Juro]

Love your work Juro.
Is it possible to line up the final round and have irregular starts?
All seasons would end at 0 and this season would start at -19.

Thanks for the suggestion. I'll do that for next week. Just need to shift over the 2020 line. It makes more sense but will be a little confusing at first glance.

 

[old_man_tiger]

Love your work Juro.
Is it possible to line up the final round and have irregular starts?
All seasons would end at 0 and this season would start at -19.

Thanks for the suggestion. I'll do that for next week. Just need to shift over the 2020 line. It makes more sense but will be a little confusing at first glance.

Thanks mate, as always love your work and hope the club break the drought that started with you becoming a member haha

 

[Juro]

Back to a 50% win-loss ratio, but with slightly better F/A than other teams, leaving us at a 52% chance of making the finals from here.

As requested by @old_man_tiger I have re-jinked the curve to show the number of rounds remaining until the end of the regular season. For this year, there are 20 rounds (hopefully). In recent years we have had 25, but going further back we had 26.


Key numbers with 12 rounds to go:

* 3% chance of minor premiership (-3% from last round)
– Eels are 32% (+7%)
– Panthers are 22% (+4%)
– Bulldogs are already at 0.00% (-0.1%)

* 19% chance of finishing in top 4 (-10%)
– Eels are 75% (+9%)
– Panthers are 67% (+10%)
– Storm are 55% (+7%)
– Bulldogs are 0.3% (-1%)

* 52% chance of finishing in top 8 (-10%)
– Eels are 94% (+5%)
– Panthers are 91% (+6%)
– Storm are 86% (+7%)
– Bulldogs are 5% (-4%)

* 15% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+4%)
– Bulldogs are 75% (+8%)
– Broncos are 59% (+8%)
– Eels are 0.5% (-1%)

* 1% chance of wooden spoon (-)
– Bulldogs are 31% (+5%)
– Broncos are 18% (+3%)
– Eels are already at 0.00% (-0.1%)

 

[Tim Sheens]

Back to a 50% win-loss ratio, but with slightly better F/A than other teams, leaving us at a 52% chance of making the finals from here.

As requested by @old_man_tiger I have re-jinked the curve to show the number of rounds remaining until the end of the regular season. For this year, there are 20 rounds (hopefully). In recent years we have had 25, but going further back we had 26.


Key numbers with 12 rounds to go:

* 3% chance of minor premiership (-3% from last round)
– Eels are 32% (+7%)
– Panthers are 22% (+4%)
– Bulldogs are already at 0.00% (-0.1%)

* 19% chance of finishing in top 4 (-10%)
– Eels are 75% (+9%)
– Panthers are 67% (+10%)
– Storm are 55% (+7%)
– Bulldogs are 0.3% (-1%)

* 52% chance of finishing in top 8 (-10%)
– Eels are 94% (+5%)
– Panthers are 91% (+6%)
– Storm are 86% (+7%)
– Bulldogs are 5% (-4%)

* 15% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (+4%)
– Bulldogs are 75% (+8%)
– Broncos are 59% (+8%)
– Eels are 0.5% (-1%)

* 1% chance of wooden spoon (-)
– Bulldogs are 31% (+5%)
– Broncos are 18% (+3%)
– Eels are already at 0.00% (-0.1%)

Confused here, as isn't your graph the same as the last one showing us at around 62%?

 

[Juro]

Sorry, grabbed the wrong link. I've edited the graph now.

 

[old_man_tiger]

Thanks mate love it

 

[Tim Sheens]

Sorry, grabbed the wrong link. I've edited the graph now.

Thanks, let us hope that we are heading upwards for your next revision.