Coronavirus Outbreak

[hank37w]

Wish me luck brothers ?

Had mine on Sat morning and it hit my like a bus around midnight. Cold sweats, fever, headaches, body aches and severe fatigue. Was crook Sunday and some of yesterday. Still feel fatigued and foggy headed however on the mend. Good luck.

Interesting man.
Heard some similar feedback from others.

My co worker said they were fine and then 10 days later they were sizzled.
No energy.
Delayed effect.

Gotta roll the dice though.
Hope I'm free of any negatives.

AZ Demps or Pfizer? AZ is pretty good, no noticeable side effects. Good luck.

Pfizer man.
We got about 8 or so people doing it at our office from 12...
Hopefully I can go first ??

Mine was AZ which seems to hit ppl a little harder. Any of my mates lucky enough to get Pfizer just said a little arm pain at needle site.

Interesting.
See how I go.

Been through worse.
?

Thanks for the info though.

After the pain of being a Wests Tigers supporter it'll be nothing.

All the best.

 

[Papacito]

Gladys Berejiklian said it last night.

What did she say ? Every time I listen to her she gets it pretty much right. The last poor comment I heard her state was that NSW can handle anything. No area has been able to handle the Delta strain without high vaccination rates.

I can't remember the exact quote but it was along the lines that we are going to have to accept that there will be deaths, more deaths than we are having now, but we have to accept that and it is the reality we face. Just like we do with the Flu.

Yep the narrative has changed…it’s just a numbers and data game now..

It's changing now so that case numbers aren't even an issue. It think the focus is now on hospitalizations and maybe deaths.

We aren't used to seeing things like this.

That X amount of death is acceptable is not acceptable to me..

I understand. I know what it's like to lose a loved one prematurely. It depends on the situation because we all have to die but there have already been and will be lots of tragedies for families within this pandemic.

The thing is none of this matters because all we can do is follow the health advice. The health advice has to be reality based.

don't focus on growing case numbers, ICU numbers, multiple deaths, just focus on vaccination rates.

Sorry that narrative doesn't sit well with me and many others.

It's a dangerously simplistic line.

Unfortunately the correct answer does not make for a 10 second, easy to understand quote on the nightly news.

 

[tony soprano]

It’s been taking out of context. He is not calling it the flu. He is saying with an 80% vaccinated society managing it will be similar to how we manage the flu, individually and socially. The flu can’t be transmitted anywhere near as effectively as C19 is so I’m sure precautions and sanitation requirements will remain higher than they had prior to the start of this outbreak.
Israel let their foot off the gas a bit with an 80% vacced nation and unfortunately it got very critical for their exposed citizens being Elderly and children.

Wrong thred

 

[Tiger5150]

I don't think people realise that we won't open until we get to a certain number of people vaccinated.

I hope this doesn't matter.
>
>They are not taking into accordance that the vaccine passports will be the new way to travel to other countries. I feel like they will complain when they find out they can't go overseas if they don't have a jab.

They will love it. It'll give them something to complain about.

I'm confident we wecan get to the 70-80% needed to re-open

Not getting political but I believe there is going to be a huge rethink on reopening now most of the States will refuse (and rightly so). NSW is going to have to get nos down in the 10s.

That is an illogical way to deal with this.

We have a constitution and people will vote for leaders who keep them safe.

One rogue State has seeded events in other States and in NZ.

What complete garbage. Do all the other states have returned travellers coming through their airports and quarantining in their cities? Should we blame India for the circumstance we are in (this case came from transporting an indian returnee)? NSW has done all the heavy lifting with regards restricting covid or keeping it out and obviously this Delta variant has made it out and NONE of the states or NZ are controlling it, but lets blame the one state that they are funnelling all returns through. If Vic/Qld/WA want to get on their high horse, start taking the returns through there.


All States are taking returned travelers, although Tasmania were taking o/seas students.

All States are not taking returned travellers in practice although I was surprised to see how many Qld are taking (on par with NSW). I dont consider SA or WA taking 3500 or 7000 per month comparable with NSW/Qld taking 40K. I also think its disgraceful that Vic are only taking 10K. Clearly Qld and NSW doing all the lifting.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/overseas-travel-statistics-provisional/latest-release

Probably minimal international flights arriving into SA and WA.

Odd that Victoria's numbers are so low though, I remember they set a limit on the number of arrivals during the 'first wave' but thought that'd been scaled back up to a more normal percentage.

The following is an excerpt from an ABC report at the time that Dan Andrews flagged reducing international arrivals in June:

*Meanwhile, Mr Andrews said he would argue at tomorrow's meeting of National Cabinet for a temporary cut to the number of people being allowed into the country and entering hotel quarantine.

Mr Andrews has joined Western Australia and Queensland who also support significant cuts to international arrivals.

Mr Andrews wants the cap on international travellers lowered by as much as 80 per cent to help prevent further outbreaks emerging from hotel quarantine.

He said he would try to get state and territory leaders to agree on a new cap.

"We haven't got enough people vaccinated, we've got this wildly infectious [Delta] strain, we've all given so much, especially Victorians more than anyone else, we've all given so much, let's safeguard that," he said.

"Locking some people out is better than locking everybody down, that's the government's position, that's my position, and that's what I'll argue at National Cabinet tomorrow."

Mr Andrews said he would prefer a uniform cap across all states rather than unilaterally reducing the cap in Victoria.*

No one should have any issue with Vic reducing its nos due what has been experienced in the State. I wish Dan Andrews was here in NSW.

I don't.

Neither do I. Andrews and Gladys have both been responsible for some awful outcomes.

You neglected to mention Brad (health) Hazard.

"Just like the flu" - Gladys on the 7.30 Report.

Go and ask the health professionals attempting to save the lives of those unfortunate enough to have Covid.

Should we ask the health professionals attempting to save the lives of the 800-1200 people dying of influenza in Australia annually pre-COVID.

Death is horrible and a personal tragedy but it happens and will continue to happen.

Here's the difference.
The flu is gone when it's run it's course.
COVID can have lifelong impacts on your heart and lungs.
You may never be the same again.

Its a good point. I havent seen and would be very interested to know if the protection provided by the vaccines either prevents or to what extent mitigates this risk of damage.

My point is never that COVID and the flu are comparable, my point is that vaccines could get us to the point where death rates are comparable. Its a good point you raise regarding long term damage but I wonder if the vaccine mitigates this to a similar extent.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

Gladys Berejiklian said it last night.

What did she say ? Every time I listen to her she gets it pretty much right. The last poor comment I heard her state was that NSW can handle anything. No area has been able to handle the Delta strain without high vaccination rates.

I can't remember the exact quote but it was along the lines that we are going to have to accept that there will be deaths, more deaths than we are having now, but we have to accept that and it is the reality we face. Just like we do with the Flu.

Yep the narrative has changed…it’s just a numbers and data game now..

It's changing now so that case numbers aren't even an issue. It think the focus is now on hospitalizations and maybe deaths.

We aren't used to seeing things like this.

That X amount of death is acceptable is not acceptable to me..

I understand. I know what it's like to lose a loved one prematurely. It depends on the situation because we all have to die but there have already been and will be lots of tragedies for families within this pandemic.

The thing is none of this matters because all we can do is follow the health advice. The health advice has to be reality based.

don't focus on growing case numbers, ICU numbers, multiple deaths, just focus on vaccination rates.

Sorry that narrative doesn't sit well with me and many others.

That is pure spin.

Vaccines are the most important tool we have to try and fight this virus. We are in a critical point in time in that if we rapidly increase our vaccination rates we should be able to manage the situation going forward. It's a key metric that has to be focused on.

Vaccines though don't really matter because they are just a means to get a result. The key indicators are ICU numbers & deaths. To my knowledge that is what everyone is stating to focus on. We need these as low as possible.

The reason why cases become less critical is that the chain between cases and ICU numbers and deaths is somewhat broken due to vaccines. This doesn't mean cases aren't important. They are. They shouldn't be the driving metric though.

When was the Doherty report prepared ie pre Delta?

 

[cochise]

The Israel experience of opening at 80%. I worry for our children who cannot be vaccinated yet. I also worry about our PM. I've seen greater sincerity on the faces of cobras and I've seen quite a few of them.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-21/israel-shows-what-life-looks-like-at-80-per-cent-vaccinated/100394760

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/doherty-institute-boss-says-reopening-still-safe-with-hundreds-of-daily-covid-cases-20210823-p58lah.html

>“The really big important issue about moving from phase A to phase B is that we’re moving out of an environment of zero-COVID,” she told the ABC’s The Drum program on Monday evening. “Zero-COVID is no longer the goal once you have 70 to 80 per cent of people vaccinated. Whether you start at 30 cases or 800 cases you can still open up safely.”
>
>“**With 70 per cent vaccination you will get hundreds of thousands of cases, even starting from 30 cases.** However, in the presence of vaccination, your deaths and hospitalisations will be greatly reduced. With the addition of public health measures you can also contain those infections.”

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/youngest-prioritised-in-planned-staggered-return-to-school-next-term-20210823-p58l93.html

I'm trusting the epidemiologists and the science. They are stating no matter what you start from cases are going to skyrocket. We should all be prepared for this.

Kids are back at school all over the world.

I have a 10 yo. I also have a 17 yo doing the HSC. My 17 yo has been vaccinated. I don't think we can wait and vaccinate all the kids prior to returning to school. Vaccination for kids might not even be a good option. The science isn't clear on this just yet.

The increasing number in Children getting COVID is a massive concern .. screw numbers and data

To put some context around that, 112 of the 494 active cases in Victoria (as at 23/8/21) are children under the age of 10 years. the Delta variant seems to affect children to a greater extent than earlier variants

We don't know, at this stage, whether children become more, less, or equally as infectious as the adult population, although it is fair to say that it can be more difficult to limit the interactions that children have with other people.

We don't know the long term effects of this disease, so even if the short term effects on young children appear to be less, the situation is not without risk in relation to the ongoing health of those children.

Yeah that is my concern moving forward, I find it hard to move forward as a society when our children are unprotected.

 

[mike]

Wish me luck brothers ?

Had mine on Sat morning and it hit my like a bus around midnight. Cold sweats, fever, headaches, body aches and severe fatigue. Was crook Sunday and some of yesterday. Still feel fatigued and foggy headed however on the mend. Good luck.

Interesting man.
Heard some similar feedback from others.

My co worker said they were fine and then 10 days later they were sizzled.
No energy.
Delayed effect.

Gotta roll the dice though.
Hope I'm free of any negatives.

AZ Demps or Pfizer? AZ is pretty good, no noticeable side effects. Good luck.

Pfizer man.
We got about 8 or so people doing it at our office from 12...
Hopefully I can go first ??

Mine was AZ which seems to hit ppl a little harder. Any of my mates lucky enough to get Pfizer just said a little arm pain at needle site.

Ive heard anecdotally that the first AZ jab belts you and the second Pfizer gets you. My son was leveled by his first AZ jab.

Most reporting the second AZ should be fine, that was certainly my experience. Headache for a couple of days with the first, no reaction at all with the second.

Did it coincide with a WT's loss .....

Hahahahaha I had to check that. The first jab was just after the loss to the Titans, the second was just after our bye round. Coincidence? ???

 

[Papacito]

Gladys Berejiklian said it last night.

What did she say ? Every time I listen to her she gets it pretty much right. The last poor comment I heard her state was that NSW can handle anything. No area has been able to handle the Delta strain without high vaccination rates.

I can't remember the exact quote but it was along the lines that we are going to have to accept that there will be deaths, more deaths than we are having now, but we have to accept that and it is the reality we face. Just like we do with the Flu.

Yep the narrative has changed…it’s just a numbers and data game now..

It's changing now so that case numbers aren't even an issue. It think the focus is now on hospitalizations and maybe deaths.

We aren't used to seeing things like this.

That X amount of death is acceptable is not acceptable to me..

I understand. I know what it's like to lose a loved one prematurely. It depends on the situation because we all have to die but there have already been and will be lots of tragedies for families within this pandemic.

The thing is none of this matters because all we can do is follow the health advice. The health advice has to be reality based.

don't focus on growing case numbers, ICU numbers, multiple deaths, just focus on vaccination rates.

Sorry that narrative doesn't sit well with me and many others.

That is pure spin.

Vaccines are the most important tool we have to try and fight this virus. We are in a critical point in time in that if we rapidly increase our vaccination rates we should be able to manage the situation going forward. It's a key metric that has to be focused on.

Vaccines though don't really matter because they are just a means to get a result. The key indicators are ICU numbers & deaths. To my knowledge that is what everyone is stating to focus on. We need these as low as possible.

The reason why cases become less critical is that the chain between cases and ICU numbers and deaths is somewhat broken due to vaccines. This doesn't mean cases aren't important. They are. They shouldn't be the driving metric though.

When was the Doherty report prepared ie pre Delta?

It's based on delta.

It also says a lot of other things that aren't widely reported.

It most definitely does not say to more or less let things rip once you hit a certain % of vaccinations.

 

[Pascoes_barber]

When was the Doherty report prepared ie pre Delta?

The revised report is dated 10th of August.

You can read it in its entirety for yourself. I'll provide the links again as this thread gets a massive amount of traffic:

https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/doherty-institute-modelling-report-for-national-cabinet

Direct link:
https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/content_doc/DohertyModelling_NationalPlan_and_Addendum_20210810.pdf

 

[pawsandclaws1]

The Israel experience of opening at 80%. I worry for our children who cannot be vaccinated yet. I also worry about our PM. I've seen greater sincerity on the faces of cobras and I've seen quite a few of them.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-21/israel-shows-what-life-looks-like-at-80-per-cent-vaccinated/100394760

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/doherty-institute-boss-says-reopening-still-safe-with-hundreds-of-daily-covid-cases-20210823-p58lah.html

>“The really big important issue about moving from phase A to phase B is that we’re moving out of an environment of zero-COVID,” she told the ABC’s The Drum program on Monday evening. “Zero-COVID is no longer the goal once you have 70 to 80 per cent of people vaccinated. Whether you start at 30 cases or 800 cases you can still open up safely.”
>
>“**With 70 per cent vaccination you will get hundreds of thousands of cases, even starting from 30 cases.** However, in the presence of vaccination, your deaths and hospitalisations will be greatly reduced. With the addition of public health measures you can also contain those infections.”

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/youngest-prioritised-in-planned-staggered-return-to-school-next-term-20210823-p58l93.html

I'm trusting the epidemiologists and the science. They are stating no matter what you start from cases are going to skyrocket. We should all be prepared for this.

Kids are back at school all over the world.

I have a 10 yo. I also have a 17 yo doing the HSC. My 17 yo has been vaccinated. I don't think we can wait and vaccinate all the kids prior to returning to school. Vaccination for kids might not even be a good option. The science isn't clear on this just yet.

The increasing number in Children getting COVID is a massive concern .. screw numbers and data

To put some context around that, 112 of the 494 active cases in Victoria (as at 23/8/21) are children under the age of 10 years. the Delta variant seems to affect children to a greater extent than earlier variants

We don't know, at this stage, whether children become more, less, or equally as infectious as the adult population, although it is fair to say that it can be more difficult to limit the interactions that children have with other people.

We don't know the long term effects of this disease, so even if the short term effects on young children appear to be less, the situation is not without risk in relation to the ongoing health of those children.

Yeah that is my concern moving forward, I find it hard to move forward as a society when our children are unprotected.

Yes this is a huge concern for me. Children are our future.

Someone may be able to answer this question. Does the 70% vaccination rate at which the Federal Govt proposes to begin easing restrictions correspond to about 56% of the total population vaccinated?

 

[Tiger5150]

Gladys Berejiklian said it last night.

What did she say ? Every time I listen to her she gets it pretty much right. The last poor comment I heard her state was that NSW can handle anything. No area has been able to handle the Delta strain without high vaccination rates.

I can't remember the exact quote but it was along the lines that we are going to have to accept that there will be deaths, more deaths than we are having now, but we have to accept that and it is the reality we face. Just like we do with the Flu.

Yep the narrative has changed…it’s just a numbers and data game now..

It's changing now so that case numbers aren't even an issue. It think the focus is now on hospitalizations and maybe deaths.

We aren't used to seeing things like this.

That X amount of death is acceptable is not acceptable to me..

I understand. I know what it's like to lose a loved one prematurely. It depends on the situation because we all have to die but there have already been and will be lots of tragedies for families within this pandemic.

The thing is none of this matters because all we can do is follow the health advice. The health advice has to be reality based.

don't focus on growing case numbers, ICU numbers, multiple deaths, just focus on vaccination rates.

Sorry that narrative doesn't sit well with me and many others.

That is pure spin.

Vaccines are the most important tool we have to try and fight this virus. We are in a critical point in time in that if we rapidly increase our vaccination rates we should be able to manage the situation going forward. It's a key metric that has to be focused on.

Vaccines though don't really matter because they are just a means to get a result. The key indicators are ICU numbers & deaths. To my knowledge that is what everyone is stating to focus on. We need these as low as possible.

The reason why cases become less critical is that the chain between cases and ICU numbers and deaths is somewhat broken due to vaccines. This doesn't mean cases aren't important. They are. They shouldn't be the driving metric though.

When was the Doherty report prepared ie pre Delta?

Executive Summary of the Transmission Reducing Scenario

Models of COVID-19 infection and vaccination were used to define a target level of vaccine coverage for transition to Phase B of the National Plan. The model was based on the simplifying assumption of a single national epidemic, with COVID-19 transmission, severity and vaccine effectiveness as for the **Delta** variant.

 

[Tiger_Fanatic3]

Massive improvement
yesterday cases over 800 ++
NSW marks jab milestone
6m jab target reached

Cases have dropped today 753 cases

 

[Tim Sheens]

The Israel experience of opening at 80%. I worry for our children who cannot be vaccinated yet. I also worry about our PM. I've seen greater sincerity on the faces of cobras and I've seen quite a few of them.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-21/israel-shows-what-life-looks-like-at-80-per-cent-vaccinated/100394760

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/doherty-institute-boss-says-reopening-still-safe-with-hundreds-of-daily-covid-cases-20210823-p58lah.html

>“The really big important issue about moving from phase A to phase B is that we’re moving out of an environment of zero-COVID,” she told the ABC’s The Drum program on Monday evening. “Zero-COVID is no longer the goal once you have 70 to 80 per cent of people vaccinated. Whether you start at 30 cases or 800 cases you can still open up safely.”
>
>“**With 70 per cent vaccination you will get hundreds of thousands of cases, even starting from 30 cases.** However, in the presence of vaccination, your deaths and hospitalisations will be greatly reduced. With the addition of public health measures you can also contain those infections.”

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/youngest-prioritised-in-planned-staggered-return-to-school-next-term-20210823-p58l93.html

I'm trusting the epidemiologists and the science. They are stating no matter what you start from cases are going to skyrocket. We should all be prepared for this.

Kids are back at school all over the world.

I have a 10 yo. I also have a 17 yo doing the HSC. My 17 yo has been vaccinated. I don't think we can wait and vaccinate all the kids prior to returning to school. Vaccination for kids might not even be a good option. The science isn't clear on this just yet.

The increasing number in Children getting COVID is a massive concern .. screw numbers and data

To put some context around that, 112 of the 494 active cases in Victoria (as at 23/8/21) are children under the age of 10 years. the Delta variant seems to affect children to a greater extent than earlier variants

We don't know, at this stage, whether children become more, less, or equally as infectious as the adult population, although it is fair to say that it can be more difficult to limit the interactions that children have with other people.

We don't know the long term effects of this disease, so even if the short term effects on young children appear to be less, the situation is not without risk in relation to the ongoing health of those children.

Yeah that is my concern moving forward, I find it hard to move forward as a society when our children are unprotected.

Yes this is a huge concern for me. Children are our future.

Someone may be able to answer this question. Does the 70% vaccination rate at which the Federal Govt proposes to begin easing restrictions correspond to about 56% of the total population vaccinated?

Yes.

 

[Tiger5150]

One thing to consider with this discussion of whether we just "live with it" once we get to 79-80% (whatever the target is) is that the virus wont spread as it did previously throughout the unvaccinated.

The virus remains as infectious and unvaccinated people are obviously totally susceptible to infection however the pool is drastically reduced. Delta has an R0 number of 3-4 (approximate) meaning each person infects another 3 or 4 people but there has to be susceptible people in the local pool. If only 30% of the available pool is susceptible this significantly restricts the rate of transmission.

TLDR....once we get vaccinations to 80% the rate of transmission will not be the same as now through the unvaccinated.

 

[Guest]

Wish me luck brothers 💉

You'll be fine! Probably...

 

[tigger]

The Israel experience of opening at 80%. I worry for our children who cannot be vaccinated yet. I also worry about our PM. I've seen greater sincerity on the faces of cobras and I've seen quite a few of them.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-21/israel-shows-what-life-looks-like-at-80-per-cent-vaccinated/100394760

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/doherty-institute-boss-says-reopening-still-safe-with-hundreds-of-daily-covid-cases-20210823-p58lah.html

>“The really big important issue about moving from phase A to phase B is that we’re moving out of an environment of zero-COVID,” she told the ABC’s The Drum program on Monday evening. “Zero-COVID is no longer the goal once you have 70 to 80 per cent of people vaccinated. Whether you start at 30 cases or 800 cases you can still open up safely.”
>
>“**With 70 per cent vaccination you will get hundreds of thousands of cases, even starting from 30 cases.** However, in the presence of vaccination, your deaths and hospitalisations will be greatly reduced. With the addition of public health measures you can also contain those infections.”

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/youngest-prioritised-in-planned-staggered-return-to-school-next-term-20210823-p58l93.html

I'm trusting the epidemiologists and the science. They are stating no matter what you start from cases are going to skyrocket. We should all be prepared for this.

Kids are back at school all over the world.

I have a 10 yo. I also have a 17 yo doing the HSC. My 17 yo has been vaccinated. I don't think we can wait and vaccinate all the kids prior to returning to school. Vaccination for kids might not even be a good option. The science isn't clear on this just yet.

The increasing number in Children getting COVID is a massive concern .. screw numbers and data

To put some context around that, 112 of the 494 active cases in Victoria (as at 23/8/21) are children under the age of 10 years. the Delta variant seems to affect children to a greater extent than earlier variants

We don't know, at this stage, whether children become more, less, or equally as infectious as the adult population, although it is fair to say that it can be more difficult to limit the interactions that children have with other people.

We don't know the long term effects of this disease, so even if the short term effects on young children appear to be less, the situation is not without risk in relation to the ongoing health of those children.

Yeah that is my concern moving forward, I find it hard to move forward as a society when our children are unprotected.

Yes this is a huge concern for me. Children are our future.

Someone may be able to answer this question. Does the 70% vaccination rate at which the Federal Govt proposes to begin easing restrictions correspond to about 56% of the total population vaccinated?

Yes.

Probably a bit less than that. The latest available figures are from 2019 which show that children aged 0 to 14 account for 19.28% of our population. So the proportion younger than 16 years of age will be a bit higher. If we **assume** that it will be 1/7th higher that would equate to children under the age of 16 being about 22% of the population.

If 70% of 78% of the population are vaccinated that would be about 54.6% of the population

 

[Tiger5150]

The Israel experience of opening at 80%. I worry for our children who cannot be vaccinated yet. I also worry about our PM. I've seen greater sincerity on the faces of cobras and I've seen quite a few of them.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-21/israel-shows-what-life-looks-like-at-80-per-cent-vaccinated/100394760

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/doherty-institute-boss-says-reopening-still-safe-with-hundreds-of-daily-covid-cases-20210823-p58lah.html

>“The really big important issue about moving from phase A to phase B is that we’re moving out of an environment of zero-COVID,” she told the ABC’s The Drum program on Monday evening. “Zero-COVID is no longer the goal once you have 70 to 80 per cent of people vaccinated. Whether you start at 30 cases or 800 cases you can still open up safely.”
>
>“**With 70 per cent vaccination you will get hundreds of thousands of cases, even starting from 30 cases.** However, in the presence of vaccination, your deaths and hospitalisations will be greatly reduced. With the addition of public health measures you can also contain those infections.”

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/youngest-prioritised-in-planned-staggered-return-to-school-next-term-20210823-p58l93.html

I'm trusting the epidemiologists and the science. They are stating no matter what you start from cases are going to skyrocket. We should all be prepared for this.

Kids are back at school all over the world.

I have a 10 yo. I also have a 17 yo doing the HSC. My 17 yo has been vaccinated. I don't think we can wait and vaccinate all the kids prior to returning to school. Vaccination for kids might not even be a good option. The science isn't clear on this just yet.

The increasing number in Children getting COVID is a massive concern .. screw numbers and data

To put some context around that, 112 of the 494 active cases in Victoria (as at 23/8/21) are children under the age of 10 years. the Delta variant seems to affect children to a greater extent than earlier variants

We don't know, at this stage, whether children become more, less, or equally as infectious as the adult population, although it is fair to say that it can be more difficult to limit the interactions that children have with other people.

We don't know the long term effects of this disease, so even if the short term effects on young children appear to be less, the situation is not without risk in relation to the ongoing health of those children.

Yeah that is my concern moving forward, I find it hard to move forward as a society when our children are unprotected.

Yes this is a huge concern for me. Children are our future.

Someone may be able to answer this question. Does the 70% vaccination rate at which the Federal Govt proposes to begin easing restrictions correspond to about 56% of the total population vaccinated?

Yes.

Probably a bit less than that. The latest available figures are from 2019 which show that children aged 0 to 14 account for 19.28% of our population. So the proportion younger than 16 years of age will be a bit higher. If we **assume** that it will be 1/7th higher that would equate to children under the age of 16 being about 22% of the population.

If 70% of 78% of the population are vaccinated that would be about 54.6% of the population

All the more incentive to get the adult percentage up as high as we can. Its over 90% for some other vaccines.

90% would equate to 70% total population. When it comes to considering the rate of spread of cases (and ultimately hospitalisations and deaths) its important to understand that due to the exponential nature of growth (R0 around 3-4), when you are dealing in exponential growth and relatively small change like 5% of population translates to massive numbers.

 

[tigger]

The Israel experience of opening at 80%. I worry for our children who cannot be vaccinated yet. I also worry about our PM. I've seen greater sincerity on the faces of cobras and I've seen quite a few of them.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-21/israel-shows-what-life-looks-like-at-80-per-cent-vaccinated/100394760

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/doherty-institute-boss-says-reopening-still-safe-with-hundreds-of-daily-covid-cases-20210823-p58lah.html

>“The really big important issue about moving from phase A to phase B is that we’re moving out of an environment of zero-COVID,” she told the ABC’s The Drum program on Monday evening. “Zero-COVID is no longer the goal once you have 70 to 80 per cent of people vaccinated. Whether you start at 30 cases or 800 cases you can still open up safely.”
>
>“**With 70 per cent vaccination you will get hundreds of thousands of cases, even starting from 30 cases.** However, in the presence of vaccination, your deaths and hospitalisations will be greatly reduced. With the addition of public health measures you can also contain those infections.”

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/youngest-prioritised-in-planned-staggered-return-to-school-next-term-20210823-p58l93.html

I'm trusting the epidemiologists and the science. They are stating no matter what you start from cases are going to skyrocket. We should all be prepared for this.

Kids are back at school all over the world.

I have a 10 yo. I also have a 17 yo doing the HSC. My 17 yo has been vaccinated. I don't think we can wait and vaccinate all the kids prior to returning to school. Vaccination for kids might not even be a good option. The science isn't clear on this just yet.

The increasing number in Children getting COVID is a massive concern .. screw numbers and data

To put some context around that, 112 of the 494 active cases in Victoria (as at 23/8/21) are children under the age of 10 years. the Delta variant seems to affect children to a greater extent than earlier variants

We don't know, at this stage, whether children become more, less, or equally as infectious as the adult population, although it is fair to say that it can be more difficult to limit the interactions that children have with other people.

We don't know the long term effects of this disease, so even if the short term effects on young children appear to be less, the situation is not without risk in relation to the ongoing health of those children.

Yeah that is my concern moving forward, I find it hard to move forward as a society when our children are unprotected.

Yes this is a huge concern for me. Children are our future.

Someone may be able to answer this question. Does the 70% vaccination rate at which the Federal Govt proposes to begin easing restrictions correspond to about 56% of the total population vaccinated?

Yes.

Probably a bit less than that. The latest available figures are from 2019 which show that children aged 0 to 14 account for 19.28% of our population. So the proportion younger than 16 years of age will be a bit higher. If we **assume** that it will be 1/7th higher that would equate to children under the age of 16 being about 22% of the population.

If 70% of 78% of the population are vaccinated that would be about 54.6% of the population

All the more incentive to get the adult percentage up as high as we can. Its over 90% for some other vaccines.

90% would equate to 70% total population. When it comes to considering the rate of spread of cases (and ultimately hospitalisations and deaths) its important to understand that due to the exponential nature of growth (R0 around 3-4), when you are dealing in exponential growth and relatively small change like 5% of population translates to massive numbers.

Too true.

I've said previously that I think Australians will respond well to the call to be vaccinated. I have my doubts whether we will get to 90% at this stage (maybe in the longer term) but I'm hopeful that we will be at least close to 80%.

Statistics aside, I hope that we can soon reach the stage where there is a safe and proven vaccine for children. Three of my adult children are fully vaccinated and the fourth is awaiting his appointment, but I worry about my grandchildren, the oldest of which is three.

 

[mike]

I find it annoying that some people say that the disease doesn't have the signs of a deadly one. They fail to realise that lockdown is one of the reasons.

I did some rough numbers on this.

UK/USA have had about 2000 deaths per million people. Data from here:- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Australia has a population of about 25 million.
Say we get to 80% vaccinated and everyone who is vaccinated is safe. That leaves 20% of the population as the percentage exposed to COVID.
In that scenario we'd get 10,000 deaths.

The flaws in those numbers are as follows:-

**1. The 2000 deaths per million population is over the course of the pandemic and not 1 year.**
2. That scenario assumes no deaths for vaccinated people.
3. Getting to 80% may be hard.

More people would die of heart disease and dementia compared to COVID.

Lower vaccination rates would chance the picture completely. If we were completely unvaccinated you are looking at 50 000 deaths which would be our biggest killer by far.

Happy for anyone to come up with rougher figures or point our anything I missed.

The way I view it though is if we can somehow get people vaccinated this isn't a big issue. The unvaccinated will also develop COVID and then develop immunity so deaths should decrease over time.

If people don't get vaccinated this would be a catastrophe. People are getting vaccinated though. From yesterdays figures I get a figure of 56% first dose protected in NSW. If we get to 80% by end of this lockdown and people follow through I think we can basically beat this.

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/australias-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

For every 528 people in the US a person has died of Covid-19. 1 in 528. Think about that for a minute. That probable equates to 1 person in every street or two has died of Covid-19 in the US.

>**It's about 2 percent of the population**. It's freaken horrendous.

I get a couple of broad takings out of this:-

1. Lockdowns/border closures in Australia have saved so many lives.
2. The Delta strain coming late in the pandemic has been exceptionally lucky for us. It's bad it's here but if the virus was this contagious at the start I think we'd be similar to the UK or the US.
3. Vaccines are going to save so many lives.

This has been bothering me since you posted it and it needs to be corrected. You are out by a couple of orders of magnitude. It’s not 2% but approximately 0.02% of the population. I can do the maths for you if you like.

I'm having a bad day. Approximately 0.2% is the correct percentage.

 

[earl]

The Israel experience of opening at 80%. I worry for our children who cannot be vaccinated yet. I also worry about our PM. I've seen greater sincerity on the faces of cobras and I've seen quite a few of them.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-21/israel-shows-what-life-looks-like-at-80-per-cent-vaccinated/100394760

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/doherty-institute-boss-says-reopening-still-safe-with-hundreds-of-daily-covid-cases-20210823-p58lah.html

>“The really big important issue about moving from phase A to phase B is that we’re moving out of an environment of zero-COVID,” she told the ABC’s The Drum program on Monday evening. “Zero-COVID is no longer the goal once you have 70 to 80 per cent of people vaccinated. Whether you start at 30 cases or 800 cases you can still open up safely.”
>
>“**With 70 per cent vaccination you will get hundreds of thousands of cases, even starting from 30 cases.** However, in the presence of vaccination, your deaths and hospitalisations will be greatly reduced. With the addition of public health measures you can also contain those infections.”

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/youngest-prioritised-in-planned-staggered-return-to-school-next-term-20210823-p58l93.html

I'm trusting the epidemiologists and the science. They are stating no matter what you start from cases are going to skyrocket. We should all be prepared for this.

Kids are back at school all over the world.

I have a 10 yo. I also have a 17 yo doing the HSC. My 17 yo has been vaccinated. I don't think we can wait and vaccinate all the kids prior to returning to school. Vaccination for kids might not even be a good option. The science isn't clear on this just yet.

The increasing number in Children getting COVID is a massive concern .. screw numbers and data

To put some context around that, 112 of the 494 active cases in Victoria (as at 23/8/21) are children under the age of 10 years. the Delta variant seems to affect children to a greater extent than earlier variants

We don't know, at this stage, whether children become more, less, or equally as infectious as the adult population, although it is fair to say that it can be more difficult to limit the interactions that children have with other people.

We don't know the long term effects of this disease, so even if the short term effects on young children appear to be less, the situation is not without risk in relation to the ongoing health of those children.

Yeah that is my concern moving forward, I find it hard to move forward as a society when our children are unprotected.

Yes this is a huge concern for me. Children are our future.

Someone may be able to answer this question. Does the 70% vaccination rate at which the Federal Govt proposes to begin easing restrictions correspond to about 56% of the total population vaccinated?

Yes.

Probably a bit less than that. The latest available figures are from 2019 which show that children aged 0 to 14 account for 19.28% of our population. So the proportion younger than 16 years of age will be a bit higher. If we **assume** that it will be 1/7th higher that would equate to children under the age of 16 being about 22% of the population.

If 70% of 78% of the population are vaccinated that would be about 54.6% of the population

The thing is you have to put these numbers into the proper context. The issue isn't the specific number.

Vaccination Percentage = People vaccinated / (Eligible population or total population)

This issue is the denominator. If the numbers in the modelling are based off the same denominator than the prediction should hold.

The only issue would be if the model was using total population but making predictions based on eligible population. I doubt that is the case. It'd be pretty poor.