T
Tiger5150
Guest
"That number" isnt relevant? In a discussion about the spread and number of infectious cases, the r number isnt relevant? Do you actually know what the r number means? It is the exponential coefficient for growth, the number of people each infectious person infects. It is THE MOST critical number in the consideration. It means everything. You clearly dont understand exponential growth.@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1453642) said:@tigger said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1453630) said:@earl said in [Coronavirus Outbreak](/post/1453623) said:It’s not that simple. You can’t debate the facts. You can debate policy implications but you can’t debate the facts.
Can I debate assumptions? Because that was the very basis of the article that I posted this morning. The internationally accepted range of reproduction for the Delta variant is 5 to 9. The R factor used in the Doherty report is 3.6. So it would have to be considered as an outlier.
Now, the authors of the report have reasons for this assumption, but assumptions aren't facts and they should be challenged. The outputs from this report, and the irreversible policy decisions that will flow from their adoption, are all predicated on those assumptions.
Whatever you do, don't question them.
Fair points. That is cool to me.
***In my opinion that number isn't relevant***. You have to understand that these numbers are all just approximations. The key is to get the right message across. You can't predict to a completely accurate level of detail and those numbers you quote are within range of reality ***which is all they need to be.***
You may be correct in your individual number **but it doesn't change the picture**. The picture is very clear because we have massive data-sets that are showing clear trends. Those trends are being backed up in real time.
That number LITERALLY changes the picture exponentially by orders of magnitude, MASSIVELY. It is the exponential multiplier. It is everything. You have zero clue.
You aren't getting political advice. It's health advice. It's not going to be perfect. If we keep following this approach this gives us our best chance.
I thought it was science and the science was "perfect" (your words)?