Coronavirus Outbreak

[Tiger5150]

Actually I just noticed something encouraging on that graph on that page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/.

If you run through the slider on the graph and watch each countries trajectory, none of them follow a "true" exponential path. If you look at that graph and it says LOG at the top left, then it is a logarithmic scale which in effect means a true exponential trajectory would be a straight line. NONE of the countries follow a straight line, they ALL fall off to the right.

What that means is that the exponential rate for ALL countries is getting less over time (presumably as people start wetting themselves and take action). So countries like China and Italy started of doubling in less than two days and then moved to 3 days and in Chinas case kept moving right. South Korea also remarkable.

After 10 days since our 100th case we are at a little less than 4 days doubling. Hopefully with actions taken lately we can push this figure to the right, closer to 10 days doubling. With the actions taken in the last week, I would imagine it would take a week or two to filter through.

Here is hoping we start to see this in the figures. As I said earlier I have been tracking them mathematically and depending on the figures that you take the exponential rate for today is about 1.2. Two days ago it was 1.25, 4 days ago 1.27. I am tracking this because I am hoping to see a crack in the exponential progression and that will be a sign of hope. WE need that number (1.2) to keep coming down.

 

[TrueTiger]



Mate, you can relax a little (not a lot but some). What you are looking at is a graph of exponential growth. What you need to understand is that depending on the scale of the x and y axis, EVERY exponential graph looks the same, it is the nature of exponential growth. Its a mathematical phenomenon. You will note that the x axis of both graphs is similar but the y axis is wildly different. Depending on what scale you have on that graph, any exponential graph can be identical.

I have been tracking this mathematically for two weeks and it IS growing exponentially unfortunately ( the peak is getting near when the exponential growth is broken) but not all exponential growth is the same. Exponential growth simply means that each data is multiplied by the same each time and it therefore grows exponentially (not linear). Ours is currently growing at an exponential rate of between 1.2 - 1.25 per day. Italy was way more.

This is a better graph to understand is on this page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/ which enables you to track each country over time. Today is our 10th day since having 100 people and we have 876 confirmed cases. 10 days after 100 cases, Italy had 5202 cases. Its not even close.

I absolutely appreciate your graphs and input to this virus and in my opinion people are taking it to carefree..
I work in a hotel and come across all walks of life,the thing that stands out to me is how many still think it is just a cold and it wont worry them,its not just the young ones either..Tonight for a perfect example,I was talking to a person who is say middle aged his comment was that the coronavirus is bs and the people who are old will be affected moreso,but its just another flu...I said that the difference is that it is a novel or new strain and they are trying to develop a vaccine same as they did for the flu strain, it shouldn't be taken lightly...his answer was ..well its just a flu and whats being said from medicos and govt is bs..

So how can you try and be safe while others don't give a crap...like panic buying it beggars belief...

 

[Tigerlily]

Social distancing at Bondi today...So much for stopping Covid spreading quickly😧😷🤢


 

[Tiger5150]



Mate, you can relax a little (not a lot but some). What you are looking at is a graph of exponential growth. What you need to understand is that depending on the scale of the x and y axis, EVERY exponential graph looks the same, it is the nature of exponential growth. Its a mathematical phenomenon. You will note that the x axis of both graphs is similar but the y axis is wildly different. Depending on what scale you have on that graph, any exponential graph can be identical.

I have been tracking this mathematically for two weeks and it IS growing exponentially unfortunately ( the peak is getting near when the exponential growth is broken) but not all exponential growth is the same. Exponential growth simply means that each data is multiplied by the same each time and it therefore grows exponentially (not linear). Ours is currently growing at an exponential rate of between 1.2 - 1.25 per day. Italy was way more.

This is a better graph to understand is on this page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/ which enables you to track each country over time. Today is our 10th day since having 100 people and we have 876 confirmed cases. 10 days after 100 cases, Italy had 5202 cases. Its not even close.

I absolutely appreciate your graphs and input to this virus and in my opinion people are taking it to carefree..
I work in a hotel and come across all walks of life,the thing that stands out to me is how many still think it is just a cold and it wont worry them,its not just the young ones either..Tonight for a perfect example,I was talking to a person who is say middle aged his comment was that the coronavirus is bs and the people who are old will be affected moreso,but its just another flu...I said that the difference is that it is a novel or new strain and they are trying to develop a vaccine same as they did for the flu strain, it shouldn't be taken lightly...his answer was ..well its just a flu and whats being said from medicos and govt is bs..

So how can you try and be safe while others don't give a crap...like panic buying it beggars belief...

IF (big IF as Ive explained above) we continue on our current trajectory, we will be at 8000 by April 2. I think we will flatten it out some, but if it is 8000K then that will mean about 80 dead which isnt nothing. Bigger risk is how many need ICU. Currently our death rate is at 1% as is most of the world except in countries like Italy where the deman for ICU beds outstrips supply. THEN you are in trouble.

I cant find good stats for here in Australia, but Im sure I read somewhere that of 320 cases in NSW 6 were hospitalised. Extrapolate that to 8000 and that is 150 beds. No idea how many we have available.

EDIT - Just found Victorian data, of 149 cases 6 were hospitalised (4%) so that would extrapolate to 322 beds if we get to 8000.

 

[cochise]

Actually I just noticed something encouraging on that graph on that page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/.

If you run through the slider on the graph and watch each countries trajectory, none of them follow a "true" exponential path. If you look at that graph and it says LOG at the top left, then it is a logarithmic scale which in effect means a true exponential trajectory would be a straight line. NONE of the countries follow a straight line, they ALL fall off to the right.

What that means is that the exponential rate for ALL countries is getting less over time (presumably as people start wetting themselves and take action). So countries like China and Italy started of doubling in less than two days and then moved to 3 days and in Chinas case kept moving right. South Korea also remarkable.

After 10 days since our 100th case we are at a little less than 4 days doubling. Hopefully with actions taken lately we can push this figure to the right, closer to 10 days doubling. With the actions taken in the last week, I would imagine it would take a week or two to filter through.

Here is hoping we start to see this in the figures. As I said earlier I have been tracking them mathematically and depending on the figures that you take the exponential rate for today is about 1.2. Two days ago it was 1.25, 4 days ago 1.27. I am tracking this because I am hoping to see a crack in the exponential progression and that will be a sign of hope. WE need that number (1.2) to keep coming down.

Excellent analysis, the fact we haven't had the doubling in 2 days scenario here in Australia is a positive and hopefully the measure we put in place bring it down even further!

 

[cochise]



Mate, you can relax a little (not a lot but some). What you are looking at is a graph of exponential growth. What you need to understand is that depending on the scale of the x and y axis, EVERY exponential graph looks the same, it is the nature of exponential growth. Its a mathematical phenomenon. You will note that the x axis of both graphs is similar but the y axis is wildly different. Depending on what scale you have on that graph, any exponential graph can be identical.

I have been tracking this mathematically for two weeks and it IS growing exponentially unfortunately ( the peak is getting near when the exponential growth is broken) but not all exponential growth is the same. Exponential growth simply means that each data is multiplied by the same each time and it therefore grows exponentially (not linear). Ours is currently growing at an exponential rate of between 1.2 - 1.25 per day. Italy was way more.

This is a better graph to understand is on this page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/ which enables you to track each country over time. Today is our 10th day since having 100 people and we have 876 confirmed cases. 10 days after 100 cases, Italy had 5202 cases. Its not even close.

I absolutely appreciate your graphs and input to this virus and in my opinion people are taking it to carefree..
I work in a hotel and come across all walks of life,the thing that stands out to me is how many still think it is just a cold and it wont worry them,its not just the young ones either..Tonight for a perfect example,I was talking to a person who is say middle aged his comment was that the coronavirus is bs and the people who are old will be affected moreso,but its just another flu...I said that the difference is that it is a novel or new strain and they are trying to develop a vaccine same as they did for the flu strain, it shouldn't be taken lightly...his answer was ..well its just a flu and whats being said from medicos and govt is bs..

So how can you try and be safe while others don't give a crap...like panic buying it beggars belief...


IF (big IF as Ive explained above) we continue on our current trajectory, we will be at 8000 by April 2. I think we will flatten it out some, but if it is 8000K then that will mean about 80 dead which isnt nothing. Bigger risk is how many need ICU. Currently our death rate is at 1% as is most of the world except in countries like Italy where the deman for ICU beds outstrips supply. THEN you are in trouble.

I cant find good stats for here in Australia, but Im sure I read somewhere that of 320 cases in NSW 6 were hospitalised. Extrapolate that to 8000 and that is 150 beds. No idea how many we have available.

EDIT - Just found Victorian data, of 149 cases 6 were hospitalised (4%) so that would extrapolate to 322 beds if we get to 8000.

That 322 would be just about bang on a 3rd of the beds at Westmead hospital, I can't find the details of bed numbers combined in NSW, but with the reduction in elective surgeries I would think at that rate of infection we would manage to deal it still. It really is what happens after that matters, if a week later we are at 20000 or 40000 cases then the strain would be starting to build!

 

[pawsandclaws1]

Actually I just noticed something encouraging on that graph on that page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/.

If you run through the slider on the graph and watch each countries trajectory, none of them follow a "true" exponential path. If you look at that graph and it says LOG at the top left, then it is a logarithmic scale which in effect means a true exponential trajectory would be a straight line. NONE of the countries follow a straight line, they ALL fall off to the right.

What that means is that the exponential rate for ALL countries is getting less over time (presumably as people start wetting themselves and take action). So countries like China and Italy started of doubling in less than two days and then moved to 3 days and in Chinas case kept moving right. South Korea also remarkable.

After 10 days since our 100th case we are at a little less than 4 days doubling. Hopefully with actions taken lately we can push this figure to the right, closer to 10 days doubling. With the actions taken in the last week, I would imagine it would take a week or two to filter through.

Here is hoping we start to see this in the figures. As I said earlier I have been tracking them mathematically and depending on the figures that you take the exponential rate for today is about 1.2. Two days ago it was 1.25, 4 days ago 1.27. I am tracking this because I am hoping to see a crack in the exponential progression and that will be a sign of hope. WE need that number (1.2) to keep coming down.

Excellent analysis, the fact we haven't had the doubling in 2 days scenario here in Australia is a positive and hopefully the measure we put in place bring it down even further!

Ad we know, testing is not available to all so make up your own mind as to whether you believe the numbers are accurate.

 

[cochise]

Actually I just noticed something encouraging on that graph on that page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/.

If you run through the slider on the graph and watch each countries trajectory, none of them follow a "true" exponential path. If you look at that graph and it says LOG at the top left, then it is a logarithmic scale which in effect means a true exponential trajectory would be a straight line. NONE of the countries follow a straight line, they ALL fall off to the right.

What that means is that the exponential rate for ALL countries is getting less over time (presumably as people start wetting themselves and take action). So countries like China and Italy started of doubling in less than two days and then moved to 3 days and in Chinas case kept moving right. South Korea also remarkable.

After 10 days since our 100th case we are at a little less than 4 days doubling. Hopefully with actions taken lately we can push this figure to the right, closer to 10 days doubling. With the actions taken in the last week, I would imagine it would take a week or two to filter through.

Here is hoping we start to see this in the figures. As I said earlier I have been tracking them mathematically and depending on the figures that you take the exponential rate for today is about 1.2. Two days ago it was 1.25, 4 days ago 1.27. I am tracking this because I am hoping to see a crack in the exponential progression and that will be a sign of hope. WE need that number (1.2) to keep coming down.

Excellent analysis, the fact we haven't had the doubling in 2 days scenario here in Australia is a positive and hopefully the measure we put in place bring it down even further!

Ad we know, testing is not available to all so make up your own mind as to whether you believe the numbers are accurate.

There is till a low rate of community transfer at this time though, we will be ramping up our testing in the coming weeks are components are sourced!

 

[mike]



Mate, you can relax a little (not a lot but some). What you are looking at is a graph of exponential growth. What you need to understand is that depending on the scale of the x and y axis, EVERY exponential graph looks the same, it is the nature of exponential growth. Its a mathematical phenomenon. You will note that the x axis of both graphs is similar but the y axis is wildly different. Depending on what scale you have on that graph, any exponential graph can be identical.

I have been tracking this mathematically for two weeks and it IS growing exponentially unfortunately ( the peak is getting near when the exponential growth is broken) but not all exponential growth is the same. Exponential growth simply means that each data is multiplied by the same each time and it therefore grows exponentially (not linear). Ours is currently growing at an exponential rate of between 1.2 - 1.25 per day. Italy was way more.

This is a better graph to understand is on this page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/ which enables you to track each country over time. Today is our 10th day since having 100 people and we have 876 confirmed cases. 10 days after 100 cases, Italy had 5202 cases. Its not even close.

I absolutely appreciate your graphs and input to this virus and in my opinion people are taking it to carefree..
I work in a hotel and come across all walks of life,the thing that stands out to me is how many still think it is just a cold and it wont worry them,its not just the young ones either..Tonight for a perfect example,I was talking to a person who is say middle aged his comment was that the coronavirus is bs and the people who are old will be affected moreso,but its just another flu...I said that the difference is that it is a novel or new strain and they are trying to develop a vaccine same as they did for the flu strain, it shouldn't be taken lightly...his answer was ..well its just a flu and whats being said from medicos and govt is bs..

So how can you try and be safe while others don't give a crap...like panic buying it beggars belief...


IF (big IF as Ive explained above) we continue on our current trajectory, we will be at 8000 by April 2. I think we will flatten it out some, but if it is 8000K then that will mean about 80 dead which isnt nothing. Bigger risk is how many need ICU. Currently our death rate is at 1% as is most of the world except in countries like Italy where the deman for ICU beds outstrips supply. THEN you are in trouble.

I cant find good stats for here in Australia, but Im sure I read somewhere that of 320 cases in NSW 6 were hospitalised. Extrapolate that to 8000 and that is 150 beds. No idea how many we have available.

EDIT - Just found Victorian data, of 149 cases 6 were hospitalised (4%) so that would extrapolate to 322 beds if we get to 8000.

About 874 ICU beds in NSW, roughly 3,000 beds nation wide. I am sure these are being expanded.

http://theconversation.com/how-well-avoid-australias-hospitals-being-crippled-by-coronavirus-133920

 

[Tim Sheens]



Mate, you can relax a little (not a lot but some). What you are looking at is a graph of exponential growth. What you need to understand is that depending on the scale of the x and y axis, EVERY exponential graph looks the same, it is the nature of exponential growth. Its a mathematical phenomenon. You will note that the x axis of both graphs is similar but the y axis is wildly different. Depending on what scale you have on that graph, any exponential graph can be identical.

I have been tracking this mathematically for two weeks and it IS growing exponentially unfortunately ( the peak is getting near when the exponential growth is broken) but not all exponential growth is the same. Exponential growth simply means that each data is multiplied by the same each time and it therefore grows exponentially (not linear). Ours is currently growing at an exponential rate of between 1.2 - 1.25 per day. Italy was way more.

This is a better graph to understand is on this page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/ which enables you to track each country over time. Today is our 10th day since having 100 people and we have 876 confirmed cases. 10 days after 100 cases, Italy had 5202 cases. Its not even close.

I could have posted that, but it is a bit hard for many to read, plus because of the schedule of outbreaks and that it does not take the very much differing travel and/or internal restriction parameters for the individual countries, along with the more affected regions within them into account, so as such, along with the testing regimes, I find it to be an inaccurate comparison.

If the parameters were remotely even, then I would definitely go with that one, but on the basis that it is far from that, I find it just as, if not more misleading than the others that are simply date based with an even scale.

I expect that time with it's education from other's experience, along with our hospital system, will allow us to avert such horrendous death percentages, but current lack of restriction will have our confirmed case numbers ballooning similarly in the coming weeks. Either way, we will soon find out who is closer to the mark and can revisit it then.

Edit; I truly hope that we can keep cases under 10k in the next fortnight and having read your subsequent post, I also noticed that many seriously affected nations were going on a downward trajectory and Australia is pretty well constant. Would love a slide over it showing when restrictions were brought in, so that I could also evaluate on that basis.

 

[Tim Sheens]

One thing that I would like to congratulate the government for in relation to protecting our peoples, is enacting protections for our extremely susceptible remote indigenous communities.

 

[JD Tiger]



Mate, you can relax a little (not a lot but some). What you are looking at is a graph of exponential growth. What you need to understand is that depending on the scale of the x and y axis, EVERY exponential graph looks the same, it is the nature of exponential growth. Its a mathematical phenomenon. You will note that the x axis of both graphs is similar but the y axis is wildly different. Depending on what scale you have on that graph, any exponential graph can be identical.

I have been tracking this mathematically for two weeks and it IS growing exponentially unfortunately ( the peak is getting near when the exponential growth is broken) but not all exponential growth is the same. Exponential growth simply means that each data is multiplied by the same each time and it therefore grows exponentially (not linear). Ours is currently growing at an exponential rate of between 1.2 - 1.25 per day. Italy was way more.

This is a better graph to understand is on this page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/ which enables you to track each country over time. Today is our 10th day since having 100 people and we have 876 confirmed cases. 10 days after 100 cases, Italy had 5202 cases. Its not even close.

I could have posted that, but it is a bit hard for many to read, plus because of the schedule of outbreaks and that it does not take the very much differing travel and/or internal restriction parameters for the individual countries, along with the more affected regions within them into account, so as such, along with the testing regimes, I find it to be an inaccurate comparison.

If the parameters were remotely even, then I would definitely go with that one, but on the basis that it is far from that, I find it just as, if not more misleading than the others that are simply date based with an even scale.

I expect that time with it's education from other's experience, along with our hospital system, will allow us to avert such horrendous death percentages, but current lack of restriction will have our confirmed case numbers ballooning similarly in the coming weeks. Either way, we will soon find out who is closer to the mark and can revisit it then.

Edit; I truly hope that we can keep cases under 10k in the next fortnight and having read your subsequent post, I also noticed that many seriously affected nations were going on a downward trajectory and Australia is pretty well constant. Would love a slide over it showing when restrictions were brought in, so that I could also evaluate on that basis.

To keep numbers low in the coming fortnight, wouldn't we have to be undertaking effective isolation measures when it's contagious which is now, which of course we aren't.

So many people don't see it, should the government try to scare them into being more careful? The perception seems to be that only the older people will die, so those that aren't in that category don't care. Maybe let them know younger people die too. (Though I don't know if that's true?)

 

[cochise]



Mate, you can relax a little (not a lot but some). What you are looking at is a graph of exponential growth. What you need to understand is that depending on the scale of the x and y axis, EVERY exponential graph looks the same, it is the nature of exponential growth. Its a mathematical phenomenon. You will note that the x axis of both graphs is similar but the y axis is wildly different. Depending on what scale you have on that graph, any exponential graph can be identical.

I have been tracking this mathematically for two weeks and it IS growing exponentially unfortunately ( the peak is getting near when the exponential growth is broken) but not all exponential growth is the same. Exponential growth simply means that each data is multiplied by the same each time and it therefore grows exponentially (not linear). Ours is currently growing at an exponential rate of between 1.2 - 1.25 per day. Italy was way more.

This is a better graph to understand is on this page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/ which enables you to track each country over time. Today is our 10th day since having 100 people and we have 876 confirmed cases. 10 days after 100 cases, Italy had 5202 cases. Its not even close.

I could have posted that, but it is a bit hard for many to read, plus because of the schedule of outbreaks and that it does not take the very much differing travel and/or internal restriction parameters for the individual countries, along with the more affected regions within them into account, so as such, along with the testing regimes, I find it to be an inaccurate comparison.

If the parameters were remotely even, then I would definitely go with that one, but on the basis that it is far from that, I find it just as, if not more misleading than the others that are simply date based with an even scale.

I expect that time with it's education from other's experience, along with our hospital system, will allow us to avert such horrendous death percentages, but current lack of restriction will have our confirmed case numbers ballooning similarly in the coming weeks. Either way, we will soon find out who is closer to the mark and can revisit it then.

Edit; I truly hope that we can keep cases under 10k in the next fortnight and having read your subsequent post, I also noticed that many seriously affected nations were going on a downward trajectory and Australia is pretty well constant. Would love a slide over it showing when restrictions were brought in, so that I could also evaluate on that basis.

To keep numbers low in the coming fortnight, wouldn't we have to be undertaking effective isolation measures when it's contagious which is now, which of course we aren't.

So many people don't see it, should the government try to scare them into being more careful? The perception seems to be that only the older people will die, so those that aren't in that category don't care. Maybe let them know younger people die too. (Though I don't know if that's true?)

Younger people have been dying in Italy once the health system became overloaded!

 

[Tim Sheens]



Mate, you can relax a little (not a lot but some). What you are looking at is a graph of exponential growth. What you need to understand is that depending on the scale of the x and y axis, EVERY exponential graph looks the same, it is the nature of exponential growth. Its a mathematical phenomenon. You will note that the x axis of both graphs is similar but the y axis is wildly different. Depending on what scale you have on that graph, any exponential graph can be identical.

I have been tracking this mathematically for two weeks and it IS growing exponentially unfortunately ( the peak is getting near when the exponential growth is broken) but not all exponential growth is the same. Exponential growth simply means that each data is multiplied by the same each time and it therefore grows exponentially (not linear). Ours is currently growing at an exponential rate of between 1.2 - 1.25 per day. Italy was way more.

This is a better graph to understand is on this page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/ which enables you to track each country over time. Today is our 10th day since having 100 people and we have 876 confirmed cases. 10 days after 100 cases, Italy had 5202 cases. Its not even close.

I could have posted that, but it is a bit hard for many to read, plus because of the schedule of outbreaks and that it does not take the very much differing travel and/or internal restriction parameters for the individual countries, along with the more affected regions within them into account, so as such, along with the testing regimes, I find it to be an inaccurate comparison.

If the parameters were remotely even, then I would definitely go with that one, but on the basis that it is far from that, I find it just as, if not more misleading than the others that are simply date based with an even scale.

I expect that time with it's education from other's experience, along with our hospital system, will allow us to avert such horrendous death percentages, but current lack of restriction will have our confirmed case numbers ballooning similarly in the coming weeks. Either way, we will soon find out who is closer to the mark and can revisit it then.

Edit; I truly hope that we can keep cases under 10k in the next fortnight and having read your subsequent post, I also noticed that many seriously affected nations were going on a downward trajectory and Australia is pretty well constant. Would love a slide over it showing when restrictions were brought in, so that I could also evaluate on that basis.

To keep numbers low in the coming fortnight, wouldn't we have to be undertaking effective isolation measures when it's contagious which is now, which of course we aren't.

So many people don't see it, should the government try to scare them into being more careful? The perception seems to be that only the older people will die, so those that aren't in that category don't care. Maybe let them know younger people die too. (Though I don't know if that's true?)

Younger people have been dying in Italy once the health system became overloaded!

That is also a concern, though hopefully mitigation measures are already being rolled out to prevent that scenario.

Though like @JD-Tiger above the lack of restrictions concerns me, with Italy having gone into full lockdown 10 days (11 now seeing it is morning) ago, whilst it's problem northern regions were closed down nearly a week earlier. Yet only now we are (hopefully) seeing their peak death numbers play out now despite such measures.

I am also worried about our lack of testing when juxtaposed with the better outcome in a northern town there with great testing rates that has become basically clear, along with that of Singapore.

 

[happy_tiger]



Mate, you can relax a little (not a lot but some). What you are looking at is a graph of exponential growth. What you need to understand is that depending on the scale of the x and y axis, EVERY exponential graph looks the same, it is the nature of exponential growth. Its a mathematical phenomenon. You will note that the x axis of both graphs is similar but the y axis is wildly different. Depending on what scale you have on that graph, any exponential graph can be identical.

I have been tracking this mathematically for two weeks and it IS growing exponentially unfortunately ( the peak is getting near when the exponential growth is broken) but not all exponential growth is the same. Exponential growth simply means that each data is multiplied by the same each time and it therefore grows exponentially (not linear). Ours is currently growing at an exponential rate of between 1.2 - 1.25 per day. Italy was way more.

This is a better graph to understand is on this page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/ which enables you to track each country over time. Today is our 10th day since having 100 people and we have 876 confirmed cases. 10 days after 100 cases, Italy had 5202 cases. Its not even close.

I could have posted that, but it is a bit hard for many to read, plus because of the schedule of outbreaks and that it does not take the very much differing travel and/or internal restriction parameters for the individual countries, along with the more affected regions within them into account, so as such, along with the testing regimes, I find it to be an inaccurate comparison.

If the parameters were remotely even, then I would definitely go with that one, but on the basis that it is far from that, I find it just as, if not more misleading than the others that are simply date based with an even scale.

I expect that time with it's education from other's experience, along with our hospital system, will allow us to avert such horrendous death percentages, but current lack of restriction will have our confirmed case numbers ballooning similarly in the coming weeks. Either way, we will soon find out who is closer to the mark and can revisit it then.

Edit; I truly hope that we can keep cases under 10k in the next fortnight and having read your subsequent post, I also noticed that many seriously affected nations were going on a downward trajectory and Australia is pretty well constant. Would love a slide over it showing when restrictions were brought in, so that I could also evaluate on that basis.

To keep numbers low in the coming fortnight, wouldn't we have to be undertaking effective isolation measures when it's contagious which is now, which of course we aren't.

So many people don't see it, should the government try to scare them into being more careful? The perception seems to be that only the older people will die, so those that aren't in that category don't care. Maybe let them know younger people die too. (Though I don't know if that's true?)

The problem is in my opinion is the fact they are only testing people who have had direct contact THAT THEY KNOW of with coronavirus

The problem is the numbers could be far , far worse and we wouldn't know

 

[cochise]



Mate, you can relax a little (not a lot but some). What you are looking at is a graph of exponential growth. What you need to understand is that depending on the scale of the x and y axis, EVERY exponential graph looks the same, it is the nature of exponential growth. Its a mathematical phenomenon. You will note that the x axis of both graphs is similar but the y axis is wildly different. Depending on what scale you have on that graph, any exponential graph can be identical.

I have been tracking this mathematically for two weeks and it IS growing exponentially unfortunately ( the peak is getting near when the exponential growth is broken) but not all exponential growth is the same. Exponential growth simply means that each data is multiplied by the same each time and it therefore grows exponentially (not linear). Ours is currently growing at an exponential rate of between 1.2 - 1.25 per day. Italy was way more.

This is a better graph to understand is on this page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/ which enables you to track each country over time. Today is our 10th day since having 100 people and we have 876 confirmed cases. 10 days after 100 cases, Italy had 5202 cases. Its not even close.

I could have posted that, but it is a bit hard for many to read, plus because of the schedule of outbreaks and that it does not take the very much differing travel and/or internal restriction parameters for the individual countries, along with the more affected regions within them into account, so as such, along with the testing regimes, I find it to be an inaccurate comparison.

If the parameters were remotely even, then I would definitely go with that one, but on the basis that it is far from that, I find it just as, if not more misleading than the others that are simply date based with an even scale.

I expect that time with it's education from other's experience, along with our hospital system, will allow us to avert such horrendous death percentages, but current lack of restriction will have our confirmed case numbers ballooning similarly in the coming weeks. Either way, we will soon find out who is closer to the mark and can revisit it then.

Edit; I truly hope that we can keep cases under 10k in the next fortnight and having read your subsequent post, I also noticed that many seriously affected nations were going on a downward trajectory and Australia is pretty well constant. Would love a slide over it showing when restrictions were brought in, so that I could also evaluate on that basis.

To keep numbers low in the coming fortnight, wouldn't we have to be undertaking effective isolation measures when it's contagious which is now, which of course we aren't.

So many people don't see it, should the government try to scare them into being more careful? The perception seems to be that only the older people will die, so those that aren't in that category don't care. Maybe let them know younger people die too. (Though I don't know if that's true?)

Younger people have been dying in Italy once the health system became overloaded!

That is also a concern, though hopefully mitigation measures are already being rolled out to prevent that scenario.

Though like @JD-Tiger above the lack of restrictions concerns me, with Italy having gone into full lockdown 10 days (11 now seeing it is morning) ago, whilst it's problem northern regions were closed down nearly a week earlier. Yet only now we are (hopefully) seeing their peak death numbers play out now despite such measures.

I am also worried about our lack of testing when juxtaposed with the better outcome in a northern town there with great testing rates that has become basically clear, along with that of Singapore.

Testing limitations were unavoidable though but hopefully with the designing of tests in Australia that use different components we should see testing broadened. A complete lockdown will be devastating here and locking down early in the piece will see you locked down for much longer as it only takes a couple of new cases and you are going to see the numbers rise again. The issue here is getting people to take the restrictions we have seriously as social distancing, isolation of unwell people and virtual lockdown of at risk people can work in slowing the spread to a manageable rate!

 

[cochise]



Mate, you can relax a little (not a lot but some). What you are looking at is a graph of exponential growth. What you need to understand is that depending on the scale of the x and y axis, EVERY exponential graph looks the same, it is the nature of exponential growth. Its a mathematical phenomenon. You will note that the x axis of both graphs is similar but the y axis is wildly different. Depending on what scale you have on that graph, any exponential graph can be identical.

I have been tracking this mathematically for two weeks and it IS growing exponentially unfortunately ( the peak is getting near when the exponential growth is broken) but not all exponential growth is the same. Exponential growth simply means that each data is multiplied by the same each time and it therefore grows exponentially (not linear). Ours is currently growing at an exponential rate of between 1.2 - 1.25 per day. Italy was way more.

This is a better graph to understand is on this page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/ which enables you to track each country over time. Today is our 10th day since having 100 people and we have 876 confirmed cases. 10 days after 100 cases, Italy had 5202 cases. Its not even close.

I could have posted that, but it is a bit hard for many to read, plus because of the schedule of outbreaks and that it does not take the very much differing travel and/or internal restriction parameters for the individual countries, along with the more affected regions within them into account, so as such, along with the testing regimes, I find it to be an inaccurate comparison.

If the parameters were remotely even, then I would definitely go with that one, but on the basis that it is far from that, I find it just as, if not more misleading than the others that are simply date based with an even scale.

I expect that time with it's education from other's experience, along with our hospital system, will allow us to avert such horrendous death percentages, but current lack of restriction will have our confirmed case numbers ballooning similarly in the coming weeks. Either way, we will soon find out who is closer to the mark and can revisit it then.

Edit; I truly hope that we can keep cases under 10k in the next fortnight and having read your subsequent post, I also noticed that many seriously affected nations were going on a downward trajectory and Australia is pretty well constant. Would love a slide over it showing when restrictions were brought in, so that I could also evaluate on that basis.

To keep numbers low in the coming fortnight, wouldn't we have to be undertaking effective isolation measures when it's contagious which is now, which of course we aren't.

So many people don't see it, should the government try to scare them into being more careful? The perception seems to be that only the older people will die, so those that aren't in that category don't care. Maybe let them know younger people die too. (Though I don't know if that's true?)

The problem is in my opinion is the fact they are only testing people who have had direct contact THAT THEY KNOW of with coronavirus

The problem is the numbers could be far , far worse and we wouldn't know

The reason for lack of testing is the scarcity of the testing kits, this was unavoidable. Thankfully some Australian labs have developed alternative testing processes!

 

[Tim Sheens]



Mate, you can relax a little (not a lot but some). What you are looking at is a graph of exponential growth. What you need to understand is that depending on the scale of the x and y axis, EVERY exponential graph looks the same, it is the nature of exponential growth. Its a mathematical phenomenon. You will note that the x axis of both graphs is similar but the y axis is wildly different. Depending on what scale you have on that graph, any exponential graph can be identical.

I have been tracking this mathematically for two weeks and it IS growing exponentially unfortunately ( the peak is getting near when the exponential growth is broken) but not all exponential growth is the same. Exponential growth simply means that each data is multiplied by the same each time and it therefore grows exponentially (not linear). Ours is currently growing at an exponential rate of between 1.2 - 1.25 per day. Italy was way more.

This is a better graph to understand is on this page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/ which enables you to track each country over time. Today is our 10th day since having 100 people and we have 876 confirmed cases. 10 days after 100 cases, Italy had 5202 cases. Its not even close.

I could have posted that, but it is a bit hard for many to read, plus because of the schedule of outbreaks and that it does not take the very much differing travel and/or internal restriction parameters for the individual countries, along with the more affected regions within them into account, so as such, along with the testing regimes, I find it to be an inaccurate comparison.

If the parameters were remotely even, then I would definitely go with that one, but on the basis that it is far from that, I find it just as, if not more misleading than the others that are simply date based with an even scale.

I expect that time with it's education from other's experience, along with our hospital system, will allow us to avert such horrendous death percentages, but current lack of restriction will have our confirmed case numbers ballooning similarly in the coming weeks. Either way, we will soon find out who is closer to the mark and can revisit it then.

Edit; I truly hope that we can keep cases under 10k in the next fortnight and having read your subsequent post, I also noticed that many seriously affected nations were going on a downward trajectory and Australia is pretty well constant. Would love a slide over it showing when restrictions were brought in, so that I could also evaluate on that basis.

To keep numbers low in the coming fortnight, wouldn't we have to be undertaking effective isolation measures when it's contagious which is now, which of course we aren't.

So many people don't see it, should the government try to scare them into being more careful? The perception seems to be that only the older people will die, so those that aren't in that category don't care. Maybe let them know younger people die too. (Though I don't know if that's true?)

Younger people have been dying in Italy once the health system became overloaded!

That is also a concern, though hopefully mitigation measures are already being rolled out to prevent that scenario.

Though like @JD-Tiger above the lack of restrictions concerns me, with Italy having gone into full lockdown 10 days (11 now seeing it is morning) ago, whilst it's problem northern regions were closed down nearly a week earlier. Yet only now we are (hopefully) seeing their peak death numbers play out now despite such measures.

I am also worried about our lack of testing when juxtaposed with the better outcome in a northern town there with great testing rates that has become basically clear, along with that of Singapore.

Testing limitations were unavoidable though but hopefully with the designing of tests in Australia that use different components we should see testing broadened. A complete lockdown will be devastating here and locking down early in the piece will see you locked down for much longer as it only takes a couple of new cases and you are going to see the numbers rise again. The issue here is getting people to take the restrictions we have seriously as social distancing, isolation of unwell people and virtual lockdown of at risk people can work in slowing the spread to a manageable rate!

Reckon that unavoidable is a big stretch, with warnings about testing being sounded a couple of months ago. Can certainly agree on the current restrictions and people being faithful to them, just think that their levels have been and still are a week or more behind where they need to be.

 

[cochise]



Mate, you can relax a little (not a lot but some). What you are looking at is a graph of exponential growth. What you need to understand is that depending on the scale of the x and y axis, EVERY exponential graph looks the same, it is the nature of exponential growth. Its a mathematical phenomenon. You will note that the x axis of both graphs is similar but the y axis is wildly different. Depending on what scale you have on that graph, any exponential graph can be identical.

I have been tracking this mathematically for two weeks and it IS growing exponentially unfortunately ( the peak is getting near when the exponential growth is broken) but not all exponential growth is the same. Exponential growth simply means that each data is multiplied by the same each time and it therefore grows exponentially (not linear). Ours is currently growing at an exponential rate of between 1.2 - 1.25 per day. Italy was way more.

This is a better graph to understand is on this page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/ which enables you to track each country over time. Today is our 10th day since having 100 people and we have 876 confirmed cases. 10 days after 100 cases, Italy had 5202 cases. Its not even close.

I could have posted that, but it is a bit hard for many to read, plus because of the schedule of outbreaks and that it does not take the very much differing travel and/or internal restriction parameters for the individual countries, along with the more affected regions within them into account, so as such, along with the testing regimes, I find it to be an inaccurate comparison.

If the parameters were remotely even, then I would definitely go with that one, but on the basis that it is far from that, I find it just as, if not more misleading than the others that are simply date based with an even scale.

I expect that time with it's education from other's experience, along with our hospital system, will allow us to avert such horrendous death percentages, but current lack of restriction will have our confirmed case numbers ballooning similarly in the coming weeks. Either way, we will soon find out who is closer to the mark and can revisit it then.

Edit; I truly hope that we can keep cases under 10k in the next fortnight and having read your subsequent post, I also noticed that many seriously affected nations were going on a downward trajectory and Australia is pretty well constant. Would love a slide over it showing when restrictions were brought in, so that I could also evaluate on that basis.

To keep numbers low in the coming fortnight, wouldn't we have to be undertaking effective isolation measures when it's contagious which is now, which of course we aren't.

So many people don't see it, should the government try to scare them into being more careful? The perception seems to be that only the older people will die, so those that aren't in that category don't care. Maybe let them know younger people die too. (Though I don't know if that's true?)

Younger people have been dying in Italy once the health system became overloaded!

That is also a concern, though hopefully mitigation measures are already being rolled out to prevent that scenario.

Though like @JD-Tiger above the lack of restrictions concerns me, with Italy having gone into full lockdown 10 days (11 now seeing it is morning) ago, whilst it's problem northern regions were closed down nearly a week earlier. Yet only now we are (hopefully) seeing their peak death numbers play out now despite such measures.

I am also worried about our lack of testing when juxtaposed with the better outcome in a northern town there with great testing rates that has become basically clear, along with that of Singapore.

Testing limitations were unavoidable though but hopefully with the designing of tests in Australia that use different components we should see testing broadened. A complete lockdown will be devastating here and locking down early in the piece will see you locked down for much longer as it only takes a couple of new cases and you are going to see the numbers rise again. The issue here is getting people to take the restrictions we have seriously as social distancing, isolation of unwell people and virtual lockdown of at risk people can work in slowing the spread to a manageable rate!

Reckon that unavoidable is a big stretch, with warnings about testing being sounded a couple of months ago. Can certainly agree on the current restrictions and people being faithful to them, just think that their levels have been and still are a week or more behind where they need to be.

So how do you source the required components when every country in the world is trying to source the same resources?

 

[happy_tiger]



Mate, you can relax a little (not a lot but some). What you are looking at is a graph of exponential growth. What you need to understand is that depending on the scale of the x and y axis, EVERY exponential graph looks the same, it is the nature of exponential growth. Its a mathematical phenomenon. You will note that the x axis of both graphs is similar but the y axis is wildly different. Depending on what scale you have on that graph, any exponential graph can be identical.

I have been tracking this mathematically for two weeks and it IS growing exponentially unfortunately ( the peak is getting near when the exponential growth is broken) but not all exponential growth is the same. Exponential growth simply means that each data is multiplied by the same each time and it therefore grows exponentially (not linear). Ours is currently growing at an exponential rate of between 1.2 - 1.25 per day. Italy was way more.

This is a better graph to understand is on this page https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid19-coronavirus-countries-infection-trajectory/ which enables you to track each country over time. Today is our 10th day since having 100 people and we have 876 confirmed cases. 10 days after 100 cases, Italy had 5202 cases. Its not even close.

I could have posted that, but it is a bit hard for many to read, plus because of the schedule of outbreaks and that it does not take the very much differing travel and/or internal restriction parameters for the individual countries, along with the more affected regions within them into account, so as such, along with the testing regimes, I find it to be an inaccurate comparison.

If the parameters were remotely even, then I would definitely go with that one, but on the basis that it is far from that, I find it just as, if not more misleading than the others that are simply date based with an even scale.

I expect that time with it's education from other's experience, along with our hospital system, will allow us to avert such horrendous death percentages, but current lack of restriction will have our confirmed case numbers ballooning similarly in the coming weeks. Either way, we will soon find out who is closer to the mark and can revisit it then.

Edit; I truly hope that we can keep cases under 10k in the next fortnight and having read your subsequent post, I also noticed that many seriously affected nations were going on a downward trajectory and Australia is pretty well constant. Would love a slide over it showing when restrictions were brought in, so that I could also evaluate on that basis.

To keep numbers low in the coming fortnight, wouldn't we have to be undertaking effective isolation measures when it's contagious which is now, which of course we aren't.

So many people don't see it, should the government try to scare them into being more careful? The perception seems to be that only the older people will die, so those that aren't in that category don't care. Maybe let them know younger people die too. (Though I don't know if that's true?)

The problem is in my opinion is the fact they are only testing people who have had direct contact THAT THEY KNOW of with coronavirus

The problem is the numbers could be far , far worse and we wouldn't know

The reason for lack of testing is the scarcity of the testing kits, this was unavoidable. Thankfully some Australian labs have developed alternative testing processes!

Not arguing that ...saying that for all we know their could be 2000 cases with CV in Australia ...and we wouldn't have a clue