Coronavirus Outbreak

[Snake]

Finally the ADF on the streets about time !

 

[pawsandclaws1]

Finally the ADF on the streets about time !

The military are not policeman.

 

[happy_tiger]

The pictures at St Kilda and Manly today are more proof that many souls are just full blown fools

When will people get it ...do they want a full shutdown ??

 

[Tiger5150]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data. AS a reference, Italy is growing exponentially with a multiplier of 1.1 yesterday, UK the same, Germany 1.11. At Italy & UK's rate (admittedly only measured over 24hrs) our total for 10 April drops to 10950.


A glimmer of hope?

I posted the above two days ago. As I stated then, I was worried because the exponential multiplier, the engine of the exponential growth was frighteningly steady and consistent. It simply wont budge and marches on relentlessly. In the post above I noted multipliers of 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26. Yesterday to complete the series it was 1.25, again...relentlessly consistent.

Today there is a possible weakening. The exponential multiplier for today was 1.13. I have been waiting for some sign that the curve might flatten and today is the first glimmer of hope. As a lifelong Balmain & Wests Tigers fan I am conditioned to expect that tomorrow everything will collapse and turn to crap, but its a ray of light.

To give an indication of how significant it is....if we continue at yesterdays rate of 1.25, in two weeks on 08.04.20, the cases will be 49996. DoH have nominated 43000 as the point that our ICU beds go under. If the rate is reduced to 1.23, then the cases on the same day would be 40538. If we are somehow able to keep it at todays rate of 1.13 it would be 13462. A MASSIVE difference in every way.

As I say, I am a natural sceptic and its probable that today is just a blip and we will march on at our usual rate which averages out at 1.23, but there is some hope. It takes 3=5 days for symptoms to develop, it has been 3 days since the big clampdown. Maybe...just maybe things are starting to turn/

Time will tell.

Anyway if anyone cares here is the confirmed cases graph, note the curve flattening today.

Here is the graph of the exponential multiplier, again note the dip today. If it gets to 1, its over.


Ok....time for the update nobody asked for.

A couple of days ago I said that it may just have been a blip, but after two weeks of solid steady exponential multipliers of 1,23-1.26, we have now had three days where the multipliers have been 1.13, 1.15 and 1.13.

Its a step in the right direction. Hopefully as these stricter measures start to change people thinking it will flow through to the data and we will see these numbers to continue to fall.

It is possibly some light on the horizon.



 

[TrueTiger]

The pictures at St Kilda and Manly today are more proof that many souls are just full blown fools

When will people get it ...do they want a full shutdown ??

You wait and see Hap the PM will be outraged at the irresponsibility of these people...full blown lockdown...here we come …...thanks DHs...

 

[happy_tiger]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data. AS a reference, Italy is growing exponentially with a multiplier of 1.1 yesterday, UK the same, Germany 1.11. At Italy & UK's rate (admittedly only measured over 24hrs) our total for 10 April drops to 10950.


A glimmer of hope?

I posted the above two days ago. As I stated then, I was worried because the exponential multiplier, the engine of the exponential growth was frighteningly steady and consistent. It simply wont budge and marches on relentlessly. In the post above I noted multipliers of 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26. Yesterday to complete the series it was 1.25, again...relentlessly consistent.

Today there is a possible weakening. The exponential multiplier for today was 1.13. I have been waiting for some sign that the curve might flatten and today is the first glimmer of hope. As a lifelong Balmain & Wests Tigers fan I am conditioned to expect that tomorrow everything will collapse and turn to crap, but its a ray of light.

To give an indication of how significant it is....if we continue at yesterdays rate of 1.25, in two weeks on 08.04.20, the cases will be 49996. DoH have nominated 43000 as the point that our ICU beds go under. If the rate is reduced to 1.23, then the cases on the same day would be 40538. If we are somehow able to keep it at todays rate of 1.13 it would be 13462. A MASSIVE difference in every way.

As I say, I am a natural sceptic and its probable that today is just a blip and we will march on at our usual rate which averages out at 1.23, but there is some hope. It takes 3=5 days for symptoms to develop, it has been 3 days since the big clampdown. Maybe...just maybe things are starting to turn/

Time will tell.

Anyway if anyone cares here is the confirmed cases graph, note the curve flattening today.

Here is the graph of the exponential multiplier, again note the dip today. If it gets to 1, its over.



Ok....time for the update nobody asked for.

A couple of days ago I said that it may just have been a blip, but after two weeks of solid steady exponential multipliers of 1,23-1.26, we have now had three days where the multipliers have been 1.13, 1.15 and 1.13.

Its a step in the right direction. Hopefully as these stricter measures start to change people thinking it will flow through to the data and we will see these numbers to continue to fall.

It is possibly some light on the horizon.



I think we wait and see until after the Qld elections 5150

I'm expecting a spike

All it will take will be a polling booth officer to have contracted the virus ....and from what I saw yesterday when voting ......not confident at all

 

[tiger_one]

Boris Johnson tests positive for Covid-19.

Refer: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52058788

 

[jadtiger]

Boris Johnson tests positive for Covid-19.

Refer: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52058788

Probably got it from Prince Charlie

 

[tiger_one]

Boris Johnson tests positive for Covid-19.

Refer: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52058788

Probably got it from Prince Charlie

You gotta watch those ears - appropriate social distance required form each lobe!

 

[tiger_one]

And on a lighter note (pardon the pun) - just to divert away form the sadness of this time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KPbJ0-DxTc

 

[Cairnstigers]

The pictures at St Kilda and Manly today are more proof that many souls are just full blown fools

When will people get it ...do they want a full shutdown ??

You wait and see Hap the PM will be outraged at the irresponsibility of these people...full blown lockdown...here we come …...thanks DHs...

And they are Sydney and Melbourne DHs
It wouldn't happen up her in QLD
Why do us Queenslanders have to set a good example of how to behave responsibility all the time
You southerners are disgraceful
And you have a hide to have a go at Happy

 

[Cairnstigers]

Boris Johnson tests positive for Covid-19.

Refer: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52058788

Probably got it from Prince Charlie

How long before a major leader is killed by this virus

 

[weststigers]

we got a long way to go in NSW to fight this. The ship docking in CQ was an utter disaster of biblical proportions

Pity it is a Commonwealth responsibility. Why do you think the NSW Police are now responsible for preventing the disembarkation of passengers and crew?

Because they have the power to do so as it's not a Commonwealth responsibility. ABF may be many things but they have no power to prevent people from disembarking the ship. A preceding order made by the Minister for Health would need to have been given, and the order is specific to a person, not an object. I've been involved in numerous discussions around these types of matters all week and without going into further detail the laws need to be changed because these issues fall back to the state and that's where the confusion lies because we're dealing with international points of entry in relation to a health crisis.

So who is the Director of National Biosecurity in the Home Affairs Dep't. and what was his or her role. in the berthing of the ship?

The STOPTHEBOAT freaks failed to.stop the boat that really needed to be stopped. The bordermeister instead had his black shirts hunting down toilet paper hoarders in Coles.

Next. election, Scotty from marketing will be able to say that he did stop the boats except for one.

Relax...Scotty's got this


 

[mike]

The pictures at St Kilda and Manly today are more proof that many souls are just full blown fools

When will people get it ...do they want a full shutdown ??

You wait and see Hap the PM will be outraged at the irresponsibility of these people...full blown lockdown...here we come …...thanks DHs...

And they are Sydney and Melbourne DHs
It wouldn't happen up her in QLD
Why do us Queenslanders have to set a good example of how to behave responsibility all the time
You southerners are disgraceful
And you have a hide to have a go at Happy

Yeah. QLD govt is responsible, just forces people to council elections at this time. Queenslanders are real smart lead by an idiotic govt.

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

it was gladys that didnt stop the cruise boat not Scomo
i have said before better than idiot shorten and his union mates running the show or Eachway Albo

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

Before this it was Greta and penny wong and climate change and they sky was falling in
now not a word
in order to kick start economy when we can lets dump this stupid kyoto agreement and get manufacturing back innthis country

 

[Cairnstigers]

The pictures at St Kilda and Manly today are more proof that many souls are just full blown fools

When will people get it ...do they want a full shutdown ??

You wait and see Hap the PM will be outraged at the irresponsibility of these people...full blown lockdown...here we come …...thanks DHs...

And they are Sydney and Melbourne DHs
It wouldn't happen up her in QLD
Why do us Queenslanders have to set a good example of how to behave responsibility all the time
You southerners are disgraceful
And you have a hide to have a go at Happy

Yeah. QLD govt is responsible, just forces people to council elections at this time. Queenslanders are real smart lead by an idiotic govt.

Yes it is stupid of the Qld Government for alowing this election to go ahead at this time
Yet they expect people to self isolate
They are not setting a good example by putting over 1,000,000 lives at risk

 

[Tim Sheens]

Meanwhile, whilst apart from evening Sky news watchers, anyone with eyes open knows whose policies have our manufacturing and ownership at this point, the rest of us can look at the reality of the suffering in a government assisted manufacturing heartland.


 

[TCL]

it was gladys that didnt stop the cruise boat not Scomo
i have said before better than idiot shorten and his union mates running the show or Eachway Albo

Was also Gladys who wanted to spend money on stadiums instead of hospitals.

 

[pawsandclaws1]

we got a long way to go in NSW to fight this. The ship docking in CQ was an utter disaster of biblical proportions

Pity it is a Commonwealth responsibility. Why do you think the NSW Police are now responsible for preventing the disembarkation of passengers and crew?

Because they have the power to do so as it's not a Commonwealth responsibility. ABF may be many things but they have no power to prevent people from disembarking the ship. A preceding order made by the Minister for Health would need to have been given, and the order is specific to a person, not an object. I've been involved in numerous discussions around these types of matters all week and without going into further detail the laws need to be changed because these issues fall back to the state and that's where the confusion lies because we're dealing with international points of entry in relation to a health crisis.

So who is the Director of National Biosecurity in the Home Affairs Dep't. and what was his or her role. in the berthing of the ship?

The STOPTHEBOAT freaks failed to.stop the boat that really needed to be stopped. The bordermeister instead had his black shirts hunting down toilet paper hoarders in Coles.

Next. election, Scotty from marketing will be able to say that he did stop the boats except for one.

Relax...Scotty's got this


First post I read this morning which. Gave me a good laugh. Thanks