Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Yossarian]

Where did I mention Syria or Assad?
Where have I made any apology for Putin?
And I agree with your statement.

I meant the person you were replying to.

 

[innsaneink]

He’s right.

And you are absolutely cooked.

Burnt to a crisp.... So he runs

 

[Kaito]

@Tiger5150 maybe you should just let a few go through to the keeper rather than constantly trying to prove your intellectual superiority .. to Ziggy especially. No points for you, pal

 

[Tiger5150]

@Tiger5150 maybe you should just let a few go through to the keeper rather than constantly trying to prove your intellectual superiority .. to Ziggy especially. No points for you, pal

Fair call. I get that and its probably fair criticism.

I thought about that when posting. Im not trying to prove anything, especially not intellectual superiority. Everyone, you, me and TT are entitled to their opinion and to think what they like, genuinely.

At its best this place should be a place to discuss topics. The way it should work is (being simplistic) TT posts I think the conflict is about X, he explains why and if it convinces me I've learned something and if not I say no I dont think so because of Y and he considers that.

In this case TT has posted his opinion which seems extremely radical and out there but like he has said many times he should be able to hold his position without ridicule. Trouble is he has explained his position using statements which are just objectively false and easily proven to be false. When this is pointed out to him, he hasnt said yeah you are right, or no I dont think you are right because of......he merely says "well wait and see" and moves onto his next conspiratorial statement based on falsehoods....the circle continues.

I admit I got sucked into continually chasing him down trying to explain each falsehood and following him in the circle and its possibly not productive, but then again maybe it is necessary. TT makes posts "explaining to people" that Iraq have been "released" from IMF chapter 7. It doesnt exist and should it be left there as a fact. As misinformation?

I agree with not chasing TT down, but should his falsehoods be left unchallenged?

 

[Tim Sheens]

@Tiger5150 maybe you should just let a few go through to the keeper rather than constantly trying to prove your intellectual superiority .. to Ziggy especially. No points for you, pal

That's a hard one and I mostly adhere to the keeper analogy. We can have thoughts on policies, ideological debate and on views of a region's populace, but there are only one set of facts regarding resolutions, agreements and dates etcetera.

Almost all here are willing to take facts on board when shown. There can be no "alternative facts" on such and for mine it does nobody any good to allow another to continue being deceived.

 

[Kaito]

I agree with not chasing TT down, but should his falsehoods be left unchallenged?

It's all good.. wasn't being sanctimonious

 

[Tiger5150]

Pegged wasn't the right word. Haven't checked lately but oil did make up most trade and as most of it is traded in U.S. dollars it acts as a security for the currency giving it a physical backing.

Then its not a physical backing. Its not backed by oil or gold or any physical thing. Its fiat currency and as such its value is based on the exchange market.

Normally the mandate it should apply is CPI but it usually strips out food and energy so it's really the impact of labour on inflation that concerns them, that is the labour capital equation. That really is not what the mandate calls for but it's rarely called out for that. But in financial circles everyone knows what they really look at is what demand there is on the secondary bond market for U.S. bonds And with all the money printing as this is withdrawn bonds are drifting higher and so must rates, but of course with U.S. dollars coming back from the "enemy blocks " that essentially means there are more buyers on the secondary bond market so the bids are lower and interest rates don't have to rise as much to attract capital.

The US Govt has nothing to do with interest rates, its the Federal Reserve

All trade carried out in dollars counts as a type of physical backing allowing America to run higher deficits and more QE.

No, thats a market. THe very definition of fiat currency. No physical backing.

As for Russian markets being closed the reason for that is the selling was mostly made by foreigners so now Russia will introduce capital controls on a war footing and probably freeze and later seize assets owned by foreigners to make up for having their money confiscated.

Russia is closed off from the world. Much is made of their significant reserves but they are 90% forex reserves and they are not able to get their hands on any of it. Russia will not be cutting off foreign capital, they will be desperate for every last drop of it.

After yesterday's ridiculous name calling I wasn't going to reply. I notice it's a regular theme and part of your playbook, endless and need less back and forth hanging on every phrase, I mean it takes time to pen together lengthy eloquent essays for many 1 finger typers and then things degenerate into deflection and silly stuff. But since you took the time to post without needing to qualify I'll elaborate out of courtesy.

Mate I just asked the questions, the rest is projection. You answered with your reasons and thats all fair and good.

 

[jadtiger]

The largest nucleur power plant in europe is in flames,a very worrying development for all of europe (BBC website).It is in the Ukraine

 

[Pascoes_barber]

In this case TT has posted his opinion which seems extremely radical and out there but like he has said many times he should be able to hold his position without ridicule.

Ideas that are patently ridiculous should be ridiculed.

I agree with not chasing TT down, but should his falsehoods be left unchallenged?

No. There is benefit to logical and reasoned rebuttal of stuff like this.

 

[Tiger5150]

The largest nucleur power plant in europe is in flames,a very worrying development for all of europe (BBC website).It is in the Ukraine

Apparently it has been put out and all under control (via the Ukraine government)

 

[jadtiger]

Apparently it has been put out and all under control (via the Ukraine government)

The BBC must be a little slow in updating events

 

[TillLindemann]

To be firing shells even remotely close to a nuclear plant is clinically insane.

 

[hammertime]

It actually should give cause for EU to get involved. Send them in to guard the nuke plants.

 

[TillLindemann]

It actually should give cause for EU to get involved. Send them in to guard the nuke plants.

Absolutely, should be sending in NATO paratroopers right now to guard all of Ukraine's nuclear plants. If Vlad The Impaler attacks them that's on him.

 

[Tiger5150]

Also, according to Russian sources the U.S. has set up a deconflitation hotline with Russia just for Ukraine so it seems thankfully that behind the rhetoric nobody has any appetite for escalation.

So no tin foil hats required.

The US have clearly shown they have no appetite for escalation, nor should they. However (IMO) there is a fine line between no escalating and showing abject weakness. Whilst Biden talks tough, the US refuses to sanction Russian oil and gas and is currently importing 600,000 barrels a day from Russia, hardly sending a strong message. On top of this the US is currently undertaking talks with Iran, with Russia as an intermediary about reducing sanctions on Iran. IMO this mindblowing weakness by the US and sending the wrong message to the Russians.

Putin and Russia will lap this up. They dont give a rats and will thrive on US weakness.

 

[Tiger5150]

It actually should give cause for EU to get involved. Send them in to guard the nuke plants.

How many tanks, jets, troops do the EU command?

 

[Bob]

The US have clearly shown they have no appetite for escalation, nor should they. However (IMO) there is a fine line between no escalating and showing abject weakness. Whilst Biden talks tough, the US refuses to sanction Russian oil and gas and is currently importing 600,000 barrels a day from Russia, hardly sending a strong message. On top of this the US is currently undertaking talks with Iran, with Russia as an intermediary about reducing sanctions on Iran. IMO this mindblowing weakness by the US and sending the wrong message to the Russians.

Putin and Russia will lap this up. They dont give a rats and will thrive on US weakness.

It would be a lot weaker not importing the oil and gas and having a significant shortage in your own country. Even worse if things escalated and they entered a war unable to have sufficient fuels and oils to run an offensive.

US really have their hands tied. Internationally, they need China to condemn the invasion, otherwise if they send troops to Ukraine it will legitimise China's entrance into a war that will escalate into a world war.

Next either one of three things will happen:

1) If the USA stations troops in the Ukraine, China will attack Taiwan forcing the allies to defend its island chain into the pacific. Russia after Ukraine will move onto Poland forcing them to fight on two fronts.

2) China attacks Taiwan before allies station troops in Ukraine, The US mobilises troops to defend along the pacific island chain, India will join the allies to attack along the Nepalise border into china forcing them to defend multiple fronts. If the are then able to force china to surrender, they will fight Russia along the Mongolian border as well as on the western front.

3) China will condemn the attacks, India will support Russia, they will take Ukraine - NATO troops will be sent to neighbouring countries to stop expansion and Russia will continue with sanctions for the next few years. The idea of war will fizzle out.


Domestically the US don't yet have support for a war on foreign lands so the threat of them entering prematurely is quite low. Also despite common thought the US generally enters wars late (WW1&2)

 

[TillLindemann]

This has been a real problem in recent years with western media, too slow to report try the middle eastern, chinese,Russian etc for woldwide events.
The press isn't as free as it once was sadly.

It's a real issue in my line of work. The ASX has recovered from minus 125 to 75 on this and still not reported by western media.

I can't lose money waiting for them to control the narrative.

If you want speed best bet is just go straight to Reuters, AAP etc. Most other media

 

[TillLindemann]

just get their stories from there.

Edit: was the 2nd part of preceding comment, not sure what happened there.

 

[Tiger5150]

It would be a lot weaker not importing the oil and gas and having a significant shortage in your own country. Even worse if things escalated and they entered a war unable to have sufficient fuels and oils to run an offensive.

With respect Bob (genuinely) I think this is rubbish. The 600,000 barrels that the US imports is 10% of US consumption (according to the White House). If this was cut off it would result in increased fuel prices, no question but not beyond what could be accommodated. People need to understand that we can either pay at the petrol pump or with blood, choose your preferred payment method.

The reason that the US are not cutting off Russian oil is because Biden is currently at about 30% approval rating. US inflation is at a 40 year high. Increases in fuel prices would exacerbate this. There are Congressional elections this year and the Democrats look like taking a bath. The decision to not cut the oil from Russia is 100% political and designed to keep power in the US.

Germany, who have spent the last 73years apologising and being completely militarily and economically benign have completely cut of Russian oil and gas and as a result energy prices in Germany have risen 100% this month. More important than money, Ive spent a winter in Germany & Hungary. You would freeze to death without Russian gas feeding the heater in each room. More power and respect to the German govt and people.

US really have their hands tied. Internationally, they need China to condemn the invasion, otherwise if they send troops to Ukraine it will legitimise China's entrance into a war that will escalate into a world war.

Next either one of three things will happen:

1) If the USA stations troops in the Ukraine, China will attack Taiwan forcing the allies to defend its island chain into the pacific. Russia after Ukraine will move onto Poland forcing them to fight on two fronts.

2) China attacks Taiwan before allies station troops in Ukraine, The US mobilises troops to defend along the pacific island chain, India will join the allies to attack along the Nepalise border into china forcing them to defend multiple fronts. If the are then able to force china to surrender, they will fight Russia along the Mongolian border as well as on the western front.

3) China will condemn the attacks, India will support Russia, they will take Ukraine - NATO troops will be sent to neighbouring countries to stop expansion and Russia will continue with sanctions for the next few years. The idea of war will fizzle out.

IMO none of those three things happen. The US will NOT place troops in Ukraine and will not engage Russia militarily unless they strike NATO. The idea that China would surrender to India is ....(trying to find a more respectful word than laughable).

IMO one of these three things will happen...

1. Putin will be killed/arrested/taken down internally
2. Putin will be successful in taking Ukraine and start a 10-20 year internal guerilla war a la Chechnya.
3. Putin will be successful in taking Ukraine, will invade Moldova and make a half arse strike against a weak NATO nation to test the waters.

Unfortunately 2 or 3 are much more likely than 1.

Domestically the US don't yet have support for a war on foreign lands so the threat of them entering prematurely is quite low. Also despite common thought the US generally enters wars late (WW1&2)

Agree with you here. No way US engages Russia militarily unless NATO is invoked. Currently 90,000 US troops in Europe.