I think the important stat I can see is the for and against this year,if they boys can keep winning even by small margins and when they get beat(which I hope is very few times)and only by small margins it will put us in a far better place than last year….NO games lost by 60 or so points will make me very,very happy...
The J(uro) Curve
- Thread starter Juro
- Start date
Juro
Well-known member
Win lose win lose. And the J-curve just zigs and zags each week. It would be great for us to win a few games in a row.
And with the loss, we fall below 50% for the first time this year. We're now on 49% chance of making the finals.
Again, it was a strange week. Only 2 of the top 8 had wins, Broncos (2nd) and Dragons (8th). And both those wins were against other top 8 teams.
Key results:
- 5% chance of minor premiership (Broncos are 20%, Manly are 0.6%)
- 23% chance of finishing in top 4 (Broncos are 53%, Manly are 5%)
- 49% chance of finishing in top 8 (Broncos are 79%, Manly are 18%)
- 23% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Broncos are 6%, Manly are 57%)
- 4% chance of wooden spoon (Broncos are 0.9%, Manly are 22%)
And with the loss, we fall below 50% for the first time this year. We're now on 49% chance of making the finals.
Again, it was a strange week. Only 2 of the top 8 had wins, Broncos (2nd) and Dragons (8th). And both those wins were against other top 8 teams.
Key results:
- 5% chance of minor premiership (Broncos are 20%, Manly are 0.6%)
- 23% chance of finishing in top 4 (Broncos are 53%, Manly are 5%)
- 49% chance of finishing in top 8 (Broncos are 79%, Manly are 18%)
- 23% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Broncos are 6%, Manly are 57%)
- 4% chance of wooden spoon (Broncos are 0.9%, Manly are 22%)
foreveratiger
New member
Love this Thread Juro brilliant
happy_tiger
Well-known member
It would be nice for one season to be Everest , not the Great Dividing Range
Fantastic stuff Juro , always look forward to this thread
Fantastic stuff Juro , always look forward to this thread
Juro
Well-known member
I was tired of the zigzag pattern. Should be careful what I wish for!
And with the loss, we fall to our lowest point this year. We're now on 42% chance of making the finals.
But would you believe it? Only 2 of the top 8 had wins yet again, Storm (Xth) and Dragons (Xth). And both those wins were against other top 8 teams, yet again.
Key results:
- 3% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 17%, Manly are 0.2%)
- 17% chance of finishing in top 4 (Storm are 49%, Manly are 3%)
- 42% chance of finishing in top 8 (Storm are 75%, Manly are 12%)
- 30% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Storm are 8%, Manly are 67%)
- 7% chance of wooden spoon (Storm are 0.9%, Manly are 30%)
So far this season, there have been 6 teams on top of the table, and no team has managed to hold onto 1st place for more than 1 week. We have had:
- Round 1: Eels
- Round 2: Panthers
- Round 3: Rabbitohs
- Round 4: Knights
- Round 5: Rabbitohs
- Round 6: Broncos
- Round 7: Storm
I'd be happy with Everest, only so long as it is the ascent!
And with the loss, we fall to our lowest point this year. We're now on 42% chance of making the finals.
But would you believe it? Only 2 of the top 8 had wins yet again, Storm (Xth) and Dragons (Xth). And both those wins were against other top 8 teams, yet again.
Key results:
- 3% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 17%, Manly are 0.2%)
- 17% chance of finishing in top 4 (Storm are 49%, Manly are 3%)
- 42% chance of finishing in top 8 (Storm are 75%, Manly are 12%)
- 30% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Storm are 8%, Manly are 67%)
- 7% chance of wooden spoon (Storm are 0.9%, Manly are 30%)
So far this season, there have been 6 teams on top of the table, and no team has managed to hold onto 1st place for more than 1 week. We have had:
- Round 1: Eels
- Round 2: Panthers
- Round 3: Rabbitohs
- Round 4: Knights
- Round 5: Rabbitohs
- Round 6: Broncos
- Round 7: Storm
I'd be happy with Everest, only so long as it is the ascent!
As long as we keep chasing the red line I don't care :slight_smile:
Juro
Well-known member
Okay Cultured Bogan, the curve listened to you. We again chased the 2011 curve. Not sure how we will manage that next round, given it was a bye in Round 9, 2011…
With the win, we are back above 50% chance of making the finals, on 53%.
Key results:
- 5% chance of minor premiership (Broncos are 21%, Manly are 0.4%)
- 24% chance of finishing in top 4 (Broncos are 56%, Manly are 4%)
- 53% chance of finishing in top 8 (Broncos are 81%, Manly are 16%)
- 20% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Broncos are 5%, Manly are 59%)
- 4% chance of wooden spoon (Dragons are 0.5%, Manly are 24%)
Note that Dragons were the lowest chance of getting the spoon, compared to 0.6% for the Broncos. This highlights the variability of my stochastic model. If I was to run the model again, answers would change slightly each time.
So far this season, we have finished each round with a positive for and against. This beats our previous best start to the season, which was in 2002\. We lasted 7 games before going negative that year.
With the win, we are back above 50% chance of making the finals, on 53%.
Key results:
- 5% chance of minor premiership (Broncos are 21%, Manly are 0.4%)
- 24% chance of finishing in top 4 (Broncos are 56%, Manly are 4%)
- 53% chance of finishing in top 8 (Broncos are 81%, Manly are 16%)
- 20% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Broncos are 5%, Manly are 59%)
- 4% chance of wooden spoon (Dragons are 0.5%, Manly are 24%)
Note that Dragons were the lowest chance of getting the spoon, compared to 0.6% for the Broncos. This highlights the variability of my stochastic model. If I was to run the model again, answers would change slightly each time.
So far this season, we have finished each round with a positive for and against. This beats our previous best start to the season, which was in 2002\. We lasted 7 games before going negative that year.
happy_tiger
Well-known member
So far this season, we have finished each round with a positive for and against. This beats our previous best start to the season, which was in 2002\. We lasted 7 games before going negative that year.
That is the best thing
Usually when we are equal with 4-5 other teams we are usually 2nd last or last on the list , being top of the list is a rarity
That is the best thing
Usually when we are equal with 4-5 other teams we are usually 2nd last or last on the list , being top of the list is a rarity
Juro
Well-known member
And with the loss, we are again below 50% chance of making the finals, on 42%.
Key results:
- 2% chance of minor premiership (Broncos are 26%, Eels are 0.6%)
- 16% chance of finishing in top 4 (Broncos are 65%, Manly are 6%)
- 42% chance of finishing in top 8 (Broncos are 87%, Manly are 23%)
- 28% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Broncos are 3%, Eels are 50%)
- 6% chance of wooden spoon (Broncos are 0.2%, Manly are 17%)
We have now gone negative on our F/A for the first time this season. And we are sitting equal with 6 other teams on 4-5\. A couple wins could see us jump clear. Please!
Key results:
- 2% chance of minor premiership (Broncos are 26%, Eels are 0.6%)
- 16% chance of finishing in top 4 (Broncos are 65%, Manly are 6%)
- 42% chance of finishing in top 8 (Broncos are 87%, Manly are 23%)
- 28% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Broncos are 3%, Eels are 50%)
- 6% chance of wooden spoon (Broncos are 0.2%, Manly are 17%)
We have now gone negative on our F/A for the first time this season. And we are sitting equal with 6 other teams on 4-5\. A couple wins could see us jump clear. Please!
TurnStyle
Well-known member
i love the j curve juro. thanks! :master:
fairdinkum
New member
jeez, 2012 was looking pretty good in round 15
Juro
Well-known member
Thanks for the positive feedback, guys.
2012's peak was round 14 (81%). We were in 4th place, 8 wins, 5 losses, +40 F/A and 4 points clear of 9th place. Then we only managed to win a further 3 from 8 games for the rest of the year to finish 10th. We lost our last 3 games, by 1 point to the Bulldogs (the minor premiers and grand finalists), by 24 points to the Roosters (a bottom 4 team that year) and then finally by 20 points to the Storm (2nd place and premiers). If we'd got up against the Bulldogs, I couldn't see us missing the finals…
2012's peak was round 14 (81%). We were in 4th place, 8 wins, 5 losses, +40 F/A and 4 points clear of 9th place. Then we only managed to win a further 3 from 8 games for the rest of the year to finish 10th. We lost our last 3 games, by 1 point to the Bulldogs (the minor premiers and grand finalists), by 24 points to the Roosters (a bottom 4 team that year) and then finally by 20 points to the Storm (2nd place and premiers). If we'd got up against the Bulldogs, I couldn't see us missing the finals…
@pHyR3 said:
Inu's try in the corner - and then the cheeky smile when he kicks for goal, just rubbed salt in the wounds..
I could start a whole new thread on players you irrationally hate, and he'd be probably my number one player that I hate with no good reason.
I swear, the only things that kid did in his career was beat the tigers, have his best games against the tigers and ruin our finals chances - TWICE.
2012 with the dogs, and of course 2011 he did it too - with that god-awful BS try in the dying stages of the qualifying final, where it was a CLEAR knock on.
Juro
Well-known member
The zigzag has changed shape. Now we are going lose lose win, lose lose win, so the zags are outweighing the zigs. But we are definitely due a win!
Key results:
- 1% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 21%, Eels are 0.2%)
- 10% chance of finishing in top 4 (Storm are 59%, Eels are 3%)
- 32% chance of finishing in top 8 (Storm are 85%, Eels are 15%)
- 37% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Storm are 3%, Manly are 58%)
- 9% chance of wooden spoon (Storm are 0.2%, Manly are 21%)
With all the talk about 2005 leading up to the grand final rematch this weekend, it may help to remember that we were sitting in 10th place after Round 10 2005, with 4 wins, 5 losses and 1 bye. An 8 game winning streak would do wonders for the curve!
Key results:
- 1% chance of minor premiership (Storm are 21%, Eels are 0.2%)
- 10% chance of finishing in top 4 (Storm are 59%, Eels are 3%)
- 32% chance of finishing in top 8 (Storm are 85%, Eels are 15%)
- 37% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Storm are 3%, Manly are 58%)
- 9% chance of wooden spoon (Storm are 0.2%, Manly are 21%)
With all the talk about 2005 leading up to the grand final rematch this weekend, it may help to remember that we were sitting in 10th place after Round 10 2005, with 4 wins, 5 losses and 1 bye. An 8 game winning streak would do wonders for the curve!
Juro
Well-known member
I love doing the Juro Curve, but I find it hard when the curve always seems to go in the wrong direction. With 3 losses on the trot, we have slipped to a 24% chance of making the top 8\. Come on curve, dig up!!
Key results:
- 0.3% chance of minor premiership (Broncos are 23%, Eels are 0.05%)
- 6% chance of finishing in top 4 (Broncos are 65%, Eels are 2%)
- 24% chance of finishing in top 8 (Broncos are 90%, Eels are 10%)
- 44% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Broncos are 2%, Eels are 66%)
- 11% chance of wooden spoon (Broncos are 0.07%, Eels are 26%)
I guess one positive from these stats is that it shows we are still in with a chance, if we can somehow find some form.
But if the chances of getting the spoon get above 15%, I'm going to start showing that graph too…
Key results:
- 0.3% chance of minor premiership (Broncos are 23%, Eels are 0.05%)
- 6% chance of finishing in top 4 (Broncos are 65%, Eels are 2%)
- 24% chance of finishing in top 8 (Broncos are 90%, Eels are 10%)
- 44% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Broncos are 2%, Eels are 66%)
- 11% chance of wooden spoon (Broncos are 0.07%, Eels are 26%)
I guess one positive from these stats is that it shows we are still in with a chance, if we can somehow find some form.
But if the chances of getting the spoon get above 15%, I'm going to start showing that graph too…
Juro
Well-known member
Well at least we have the bye this week, so the curve will be relatively stable for the moment…
