Coronavirus Outbreak

[happy_tiger]

Pence hap... Pence

Proof I'm still young finally ...Thanks Ink

 

[hobbo1]

Happy is down to his last toilet roll


@Geo just rang ...wanting to buy a house in Gladstone ...

He could buy Gladstone itself

Pity we don't deal in pounds pents and shillings anymore

Pence ...!

 

[Regan]

For all discussing the statistics let me say the following :

At this stage the stats are indicative only as there are significant issues with the reliability of initial data from China and now Iran in particular. Consider all stats at the moment to be more general than definitive but there are many more reasons to be positive than negative or alarmist.

There seems to be a significant number of patients globally who haven’t been counted as they have nil or mild symptoms - this significantly skews any data on transmission rates and death rates. the most recent journal articles from reputable medical journals are now citing the global death rate is trending down and should continue to do so. A couple are suggesting that in all likelihood the rate will settle in the general area of influenza. But as with any stat, the more data collected the more accurate the end result, so we will see.

As mentioned, statistics are great for management and health economic planning and for sensationalist media reporting but not necessarily important for the individual. Remember the saying , "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The post above about the “economist” prediction has been eviscerated by many sources as unnecessarily alarmist and wildly inaccurate. They back tracked very quickly after the furore.


Yeh, I think we all realise the value of statistics and the general circumstances of their application. For that reason I thought those stats I posted coming from the diamond princess may have been more useful to analysts, given they also could possibly have some access to the passenger list? Ages etc.
don’t mean to sound so cold about it, but numbers don’t have feelings.

According to jirskyr, we'd need to wait 2-5 years to have sufficient data to take notice of the statistics...

That's not what I said, I said the rates might not settle for 2-5 years. The mortality rate of COVID-19 in the first few months is exactly what it says - the rate in the first few months. The comparative flu rate is from decades of data of many different strains. So COVID-19 mortality rates might get worse, or they might get drastically better.

But what does that matter to the sample size of 1? If you are sick, you are sick. If you die, you die. You can't half-die or 3% die, so you just need to be aware of the risks and take appropriate precautions. Fuss over whether the mortality rate is 3.5% or 5.3% etc, or whether the Chinese aren't posting true numbers - a problem for Chinese, not for Australians.

Right, so regardless of whether the rates settle or not, any data on this is irrelevant as long as I only consider myself?

You seem to have taken my post as an insult. Not my field, so I'm genuinely trying to learn off you seeing as you're a professional in the industry.

You have a weird way of being genuine, stirring up nonsense about indigenous.

Firstly, I'm not an epidemiologist. So if we have one in here, they are the expert. But I know a reasonable amount about disease statistics, particularly in analysis of clinical trial data, because that's part of what I do for a living.

What is global data? It's just the sum of all the stuff. There is no average person in real-life, you can't point to the person who is in the middle of everything. So global data is only relevant to you, the individual, in considering your own risk.

For example, the global road fatality rate is about 0.02%, for influenza it's about 0.2%. So you are about 10x more likely to die from flu than a road crash. I would propose to you that most people are pretty confident of not dying from flu. Similarly, most people are pretty confident of not dying from driving. Why are people confident? Because on average the death rates are pretty low.

That's somewhat reasonable, but it's just a risk factor. If you actually have flu, you are very obviously more chance of dying from it than if you don't have flu. If you are elderly or immuno-compromised, your risk increases substantially again. Same when comparing safe driving with a seatbelt vs speeding whilst on drugs and no seatbelt.

So then what help, really, is the global flu data or global road death toll data to an indivdual, going about their day? You are either sick or you are not, and you respond accordingly. Global data is very helpful to hospitals, very helpful to road safety professionals, very helpful to the government, but just a predictor for your standard citizen. Then, if your circumstances change and you become at much higher risk of flu or road death, you take appropriate action. If you have flue or are about to crash, you respond ever more seriously.

I.e. if you have COVID-19 or know someone who does - take it very seriously. Take it more seriously than the 3.4% mortality rate might indicate you should. If you don't have them, just be aware of the risk. But whether or not it's 4% or 6% global risk, I really don't think that matters - people are already taking it quite seriously.




I think I have it but I am not going to get tested


Regan, do you have a reason for not getting tested? Are you isolated?



I have a sore throat dry cough lungs are sore with a pressure burning sensation and I have a headache that comes and goes and when it's bad it's really bad I am very tired at times I was in Chinatown about 7 weeks ago talk with some Chinese tourists told them to get the ferry to manly its a great thing to do about two three weeks after that I started to feel the way I do now and its just not going away

Getting tested I was thinking about it but decided not to after the Australia government decided to let 100.000 Chinese students back into the country before closing the border just to let the university's to get there money I have nothing against Chinese people at all they are great to go out drinking and having fun with but I work near the university and figure I am going to get it long with everyone else in the next 6 months


A friend gave me some advice today how to beat it if I have it I will try that in the next week and see how I go and also its science base and I read a paper on it today it all sounds good

Mate I'm I Haymarket 3 times a week, if you are worried get tested to put your mind at ease but I doubt you have it from 7 weeks ago.

Have the exact same symptoms tbh... Haymarket is probably as bad - but Chatswood, Rhodes and Ryde are practically ghost towns ATM.

How did you go with the colidail silver? I ended up being on the floor could not move drunk 2 liters over three days with 30000 millagrams Vitamin C 800 mcg of selium and 40000 iu of vitamin d and bounce right back

 

[jirskyr]

a lady in front of me, in about her 60’s, insisted I go in front of her as I only had a basket and she had a full trolley

That's a heart-warming story, just making sure her trolley wasn't full of pasta and bog roll?

 

[Tigerboy]

For all discussing the statistics let me say the following :

At this stage the stats are indicative only as there are significant issues with the reliability of initial data from China and now Iran in particular. Consider all stats at the moment to be more general than definitive but there are many more reasons to be positive than negative or alarmist.

There seems to be a significant number of patients globally who haven’t been counted as they have nil or mild symptoms - this significantly skews any data on transmission rates and death rates. the most recent journal articles from reputable medical journals are now citing the global death rate is trending down and should continue to do so. A couple are suggesting that in all likelihood the rate will settle in the general area of influenza. But as with any stat, the more data collected the more accurate the end result, so we will see.

As mentioned, statistics are great for management and health economic planning and for sensationalist media reporting but not necessarily important for the individual. Remember the saying , "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The post above about the “economist” prediction has been eviscerated by many sources as unnecessarily alarmist and wildly inaccurate. They back tracked very quickly after the furore.


Yeh, I think we all realise the value of statistics and the general circumstances of their application. For that reason I thought those stats I posted coming from the diamond princess may have been more useful to analysts, given they also could possibly have some access to the passenger list? Ages etc.
don’t mean to sound so cold about it, but numbers don’t have feelings.

According to jirskyr, we'd need to wait 2-5 years to have sufficient data to take notice of the statistics...

That's not what I said, I said the rates might not settle for 2-5 years. The mortality rate of COVID-19 in the first few months is exactly what it says - the rate in the first few months. The comparative flu rate is from decades of data of many different strains. So COVID-19 mortality rates might get worse, or they might get drastically better.

But what does that matter to the sample size of 1? If you are sick, you are sick. If you die, you die. You can't half-die or 3% die, so you just need to be aware of the risks and take appropriate precautions. Fuss over whether the mortality rate is 3.5% or 5.3% etc, or whether the Chinese aren't posting true numbers - a problem for Chinese, not for Australians.

Right, so regardless of whether the rates settle or not, any data on this is irrelevant as long as I only consider myself?

You seem to have taken my post as an insult. Not my field, so I'm genuinely trying to learn off you seeing as you're a professional in the industry.

You have a weird way of being genuine, stirring up nonsense about indigenous.

Firstly, I'm not an epidemiologist. So if we have one in here, they are the expert. But I know a reasonable amount about disease statistics, particularly in analysis of clinical trial data, because that's part of what I do for a living.

What is global data? It's just the sum of all the stuff. There is no average person in real-life, you can't point to the person who is in the middle of everything. So global data is only relevant to you, the individual, in considering your own risk.

For example, the global road fatality rate is about 0.02%, for influenza it's about 0.2%. So you are about 10x more likely to die from flu than a road crash. I would propose to you that most people are pretty confident of not dying from flu. Similarly, most people are pretty confident of not dying from driving. Why are people confident? Because on average the death rates are pretty low.

That's somewhat reasonable, but it's just a risk factor. If you actually have flu, you are very obviously more chance of dying from it than if you don't have flu. If you are elderly or immuno-compromised, your risk increases substantially again. Same when comparing safe driving with a seatbelt vs speeding whilst on drugs and no seatbelt.

So then what help, really, is the global flu data or global road death toll data to an indivdual, going about their day? You are either sick or you are not, and you respond accordingly. Global data is very helpful to hospitals, very helpful to road safety professionals, very helpful to the government, but just a predictor for your standard citizen. Then, if your circumstances change and you become at much higher risk of flu or road death, you take appropriate action. If you have flue or are about to crash, you respond ever more seriously.

I.e. if you have COVID-19 or know someone who does - take it very seriously. Take it more seriously than the 3.4% mortality rate might indicate you should. If you don't have them, just be aware of the risk. But whether or not it's 4% or 6% global risk, I really don't think that matters - people are already taking it quite seriously.




I think I have it but I am not going to get tested


Regan, do you have a reason for not getting tested? Are you isolated?



I have a sore throat dry cough lungs are sore with a pressure burning sensation and I have a headache that comes and goes and when it's bad it's really bad I am very tired at times I was in Chinatown about 7 weeks ago talk with some Chinese tourists told them to get the ferry to manly its a great thing to do about two three weeks after that I started to feel the way I do now and its just not going away

Getting tested I was thinking about it but decided not to after the Australia government decided to let 100.000 Chinese students back into the country before closing the border just to let the university's to get there money I have nothing against Chinese people at all they are great to go out drinking and having fun with but I work near the university and figure I am going to get it long with everyone else in the next 6 months


A friend gave me some advice today how to beat it if I have it I will try that in the next week and see how I go and also its science base and I read a paper on it today it all sounds good

Mate I'm I Haymarket 3 times a week, if you are worried get tested to put your mind at ease but I doubt you have it from 7 weeks ago.

Have the exact same symptoms tbh... Haymarket is probably as bad - but Chatswood, Rhodes and Ryde are practically ghost towns ATM.



How did you go with the colidail silver? I ended up being on the floor could not move drunk 2 liters over three days with 30000 millagrams Vitamin C 800 mcg of selium and 40000 iu of vitamin d and bounce right back

Mate, worked wonders for me and actually seems a real remedy to any general influenza. Only managed to find a friend with some and was down to his very last but after a week or so my symptoms have improved enormously... no shallow breathing anymore.

How did you manage your splits with such accuracy?? Specific doses every few hours or

Have just purchased more multi-vits and looking to increase my body’s resistance to reinfection

 

[Regan]

For all discussing the statistics let me say the following :

At this stage the stats are indicative only as there are significant issues with the reliability of initial data from China and now Iran in particular. Consider all stats at the moment to be more general than definitive but there are many more reasons to be positive than negative or alarmist.

There seems to be a significant number of patients globally who haven’t been counted as they have nil or mild symptoms - this significantly skews any data on transmission rates and death rates. the most recent journal articles from reputable medical journals are now citing the global death rate is trending down and should continue to do so. A couple are suggesting that in all likelihood the rate will settle in the general area of influenza. But as with any stat, the more data collected the more accurate the end result, so we will see.

As mentioned, statistics are great for management and health economic planning and for sensationalist media reporting but not necessarily important for the individual. Remember the saying , "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The post above about the “economist” prediction has been eviscerated by many sources as unnecessarily alarmist and wildly inaccurate. They back tracked very quickly after the furore.


Yeh, I think we all realise the value of statistics and the general circumstances of their application. For that reason I thought those stats I posted coming from the diamond princess may have been more useful to analysts, given they also could possibly have some access to the passenger list? Ages etc.
don’t mean to sound so cold about it, but numbers don’t have feelings.

According to jirskyr, we'd need to wait 2-5 years to have sufficient data to take notice of the statistics...

That's not what I said, I said the rates might not settle for 2-5 years. The mortality rate of COVID-19 in the first few months is exactly what it says - the rate in the first few months. The comparative flu rate is from decades of data of many different strains. So COVID-19 mortality rates might get worse, or they might get drastically better.

But what does that matter to the sample size of 1? If you are sick, you are sick. If you die, you die. You can't half-die or 3% die, so you just need to be aware of the risks and take appropriate precautions. Fuss over whether the mortality rate is 3.5% or 5.3% etc, or whether the Chinese aren't posting true numbers - a problem for Chinese, not for Australians.

Right, so regardless of whether the rates settle or not, any data on this is irrelevant as long as I only consider myself?

You seem to have taken my post as an insult. Not my field, so I'm genuinely trying to learn off you seeing as you're a professional in the industry.

You have a weird way of being genuine, stirring up nonsense about indigenous.

Firstly, I'm not an epidemiologist. So if we have one in here, they are the expert. But I know a reasonable amount about disease statistics, particularly in analysis of clinical trial data, because that's part of what I do for a living.

What is global data? It's just the sum of all the stuff. There is no average person in real-life, you can't point to the person who is in the middle of everything. So global data is only relevant to you, the individual, in considering your own risk.

For example, the global road fatality rate is about 0.02%, for influenza it's about 0.2%. So you are about 10x more likely to die from flu than a road crash. I would propose to you that most people are pretty confident of not dying from flu. Similarly, most people are pretty confident of not dying from driving. Why are people confident? Because on average the death rates are pretty low.

That's somewhat reasonable, but it's just a risk factor. If you actually have flu, you are very obviously more chance of dying from it than if you don't have flu. If you are elderly or immuno-compromised, your risk increases substantially again. Same when comparing safe driving with a seatbelt vs speeding whilst on drugs and no seatbelt.

So then what help, really, is the global flu data or global road death toll data to an indivdual, going about their day? You are either sick or you are not, and you respond accordingly. Global data is very helpful to hospitals, very helpful to road safety professionals, very helpful to the government, but just a predictor for your standard citizen. Then, if your circumstances change and you become at much higher risk of flu or road death, you take appropriate action. If you have flue or are about to crash, you respond ever more seriously.

I.e. if you have COVID-19 or know someone who does - take it very seriously. Take it more seriously than the 3.4% mortality rate might indicate you should. If you don't have them, just be aware of the risk. But whether or not it's 4% or 6% global risk, I really don't think that matters - people are already taking it quite seriously.




I think I have it but I am not going to get tested


Regan, do you have a reason for not getting tested? Are you isolated?



I have a sore throat dry cough lungs are sore with a pressure burning sensation and I have a headache that comes and goes and when it's bad it's really bad I am very tired at times I was in Chinatown about 7 weeks ago talk with some Chinese tourists told them to get the ferry to manly its a great thing to do about two three weeks after that I started to feel the way I do now and its just not going away

Getting tested I was thinking about it but decided not to after the Australia government decided to let 100.000 Chinese students back into the country before closing the border just to let the university's to get there money I have nothing against Chinese people at all they are great to go out drinking and having fun with but I work near the university and figure I am going to get it long with everyone else in the next 6 months


A friend gave me some advice today how to beat it if I have it I will try that in the next week and see how I go and also its science base and I read a paper on it today it all sounds good

Mate I'm I Haymarket 3 times a week, if you are worried get tested to put your mind at ease but I doubt you have it from 7 weeks ago.

Have the exact same symptoms tbh... Haymarket is probably as bad - but Chatswood, Rhodes and Ryde are practically ghost towns ATM.



How did you go with the colidail silver? I ended up being on the floor could not move drunk 2 liters over three days with 30000 millagrams Vitamin C 800 mcg of selium and 40000 iu of vitamin d and bounce right back

Mate, worked wonders for me and actually seems a real remedy to any general influenza. Only managed to find a friend with some and was down to his very last but after a week or so my symptoms have improved enormously... no shallow breathing anymore.

How did you manage your splits with such accuracy?? Specific doses every few hours or

Have just purchased more multi-vits and looking to increase my body’s resistance to reinfection

Just divided it of the days was watching Dr Berg on your tube and he talks about how viruses turn down the Vitamin D receptorss in your body so they can attack faster he also has links to the studys with selium that's great with cells in your body and if you look to Dr Joel Wallach he has some great information on selium and cancer cell health

Also I posted here the other day what day the government will close every think and it was taken down if you want to know pm me but a few days before hand they will stop domestic flights and the information I was giving was from a man who is only a few seats away from the top job

 

[jirskyr]

To be honest, people are doing what they think is right by stocking up.

In the absence of any real action by the government, this makes people feel like they're doing something to protect their family.

Fear and emotion always wins over logic.

What I don't get about the hoarders is that this isn't a natural disaster, the trucks are still on the roads and we can still get supplies from farms to shops. Govt is hugely resisting lockdown protocols, and even if we do go lockdown, the first response is going to be food supply to everyone.

So all hoarders are doing is adding to stress and stealing from their fellow comrades, which obviously by now they either don't realise or don't care, so they can't be helped.

And if descend into true anarchy, if it goes to looting and theft, the hoarders are the first people that get targeted. So it does you no good to have huge stores of food and toilet paper in your garage, because that will become the first thing the angry mob go after, your garage full of stock.

 

[JD Tiger]

Bryce Cartwright from the Titans has tested positive to carona virus

What's the word on this? Real, a joke, or just hush hush not announced yet?

 

[Geo]

Bryce Cartwright from the Titans has tested positive to carona virus

What's the word on this? Real, a joke, or just hush hush not announced yet?

A random facebook page so 100% Fact..

 

[happy_tiger]

Happy is down to his last toilet roll


@Geo just rang ...wanting to buy a house in Gladstone ...

He could buy Gladstone itself

Pity we don't deal in pounds pents and shillings anymore

Pence ...!

What you sitting on pence again T REX

 

[Regan]

Also with the colidail silver if you go camping you and use it to make your drinking water safe also no virus can handle a solution of more then 5ppm and when you drink it think about the strength of it how bad you feel and how heavy you are

 

[happy_tiger]

Also with the colidail silver if you go camping you and use it to make your drinking water safe also no virus can handle a solution of more then 5ppm and when you drink it think about the strength of it how bad you feel and how heavy you are

What's wrong with boiling it or freezing it .....

 

[Regan]

Also with the colidail silver if you go camping you and use it to make your drinking water safe also no virus can handle a solution of more then 5ppm and when you drink it think about the strength of it how bad you feel and how heavy you are

What's wrong with boiling it or freezing it .....

You can boil it and freezing does not kill everything you can use colidail silver on a rash and skin problems and a friend gave it to his father when he had a kidney infection have a read of the link I posted

https://immunizelabs.com/pages/ionic-colloidal-silver

 

[TieDye]

To be honest, people are doing what they think is right by stocking up.

In the absence of any real action by the government, this makes people feel like they're doing something to protect their family.

Fear and emotion always wins over logic.

What I don't get about the hoarders is that this isn't a natural disaster, the trucks are still on the roads and we can still get supplies from farms to shops. Govt is hugely resisting lockdown protocols, and even if we do go lockdown, the first response is going to be food supply to everyone.

So all hoarders are doing is adding to stress and stealing from their fellow comrades, which obviously by now they either don't realise or don't care, so they can't be helped.

And if descend into true anarchy, if it goes to looting and theft, the hoarders are the first people that get targeted. So it does you no good to have huge stores of food and toilet paper in your garage, because that will become the first thing the angry mob go after, your garage full of stock.

Can’t be helped . Sadly not a lot of 2nd or 3rd gen Australian’s fell for it and that’s the facts of the matter - but it won’t matter soon

Government worldwide is shutting down and looks to be headed for an apocalyptic state of affairs simply due to a solitary few in China who knew... brutish behaviour really when you assess just how costly that decision is proving to be.

My personal preference is to cut them off. Whoever is perpetuating anything crazy in regards to this, just as quickly as anybody not taking it quite seriously enough. I say *enough*

 

[Regan]

To be honest, people are doing what they think is right by stocking up.

In the absence of any real action by the government, this makes people feel like they're doing something to protect their family.

Fear and emotion always wins over logic.

What I don't get about the hoarders is that this isn't a natural disaster, the trucks are still on the roads and we can still get supplies from farms to shops. Govt is hugely resisting lockdown protocols, and even if we do go lockdown, the first response is going to be food supply to everyone.

So all hoarders are doing is adding to stress and stealing from their fellow comrades, which obviously by now they either don't realise or don't care, so they can't be helped.

And if descend into true anarchy, if it goes to looting and theft, the hoarders are the first people that get targeted. So it does you no good to have huge stores of food and toilet paper in your garage, because that will become the first thing the angry mob go after, your garage full of stock.

Can’t be helped . Sadly not a lot of 2nd or 3rd gen Australian’s fell for it and that’s the facts of the matter - but it won’t matter soon

Government worldwide is shutting down and looks to be headed for an apocalyptic state of affairs simply due to a solitary few in China who knew... brutish behaviour really when you assess just how costly that decision is proving to be.

My personal preference is to cut them off. Whoever is perpetuating anything crazy in regards to this, just as quickly as anybody not taking it quite seriously enough. I say *enough*

https://www.facebook.com/mahmoud.elawadi.9/videos/10163288717110720/?d=n

 

[Regan]

https://www.facebook.com/mahmoud.elawadi.9/videos/10163288717110720/?d=n

It will blow your socks off

 

[Harvey]

Ventolin does nothing for the corona virus, but does help alleviate the symptoms of people suffering from breathing difficulties. Other steroid based inhalers (symbacourt etc) do exactly the same.

How often has anyone been to a doctor with bronchitis, whooping cough or other illnesses and been prescribed some form of inhaler for a period of time, despite not being asthmatic?

 

[Harvey]

https://www.facebook.com/mahmoud.elawadi.9/videos/10163288717110720/?d=n

It will blow your socks off

1st time I watched it I thought yeah, whatever. Once I wrapped my head in tinfoil it almost blew my mind.

Forget laws about how many people are allowed into a pub, or a footy ground. The government needs to restrict foreign investment at the time that they are about to introduce lock-down isolation laws that will send thousands of businesses (big and small) to the wall and leave them waiting for someone with cash reserves to come and feed off the carcasses.

 

[mike]

https://www.facebook.com/mahmoud.elawadi.9/videos/10163288717110720/?d=n

It will blow your socks off

Conspiracy theory to the extreme. I'll pass thanks.

 

[JD Tiger]

Most people are sheep, that's why we have leaders because most people are easily led. I am fairly certain I read somewhere about the toilet paper being all bought up somewhere else (in another country) before it happened here. I suspect what happened here was people seeing that and buying it all up here thinking either it would happen here and they didn't want to miss out, or trying to profit from it.

It all went downhill from there. Why it happened elsewhere in the first place I don't know.

What we hopefully learn from this is that our leaders are rubbish at leading and need to step up or step down.