Wests Tigers and the finals

I've been doing a bit of playing with simulations to see what could happen over the remaining rounds.

I have made the following simplifying assumptions:
* each game is a coin toss with each team having 50% chance of winning
* the winning margin in every game is 10

Over 10,000 simulations, the number of time Wests Tigers came each position was:
* 1st: 830
* 2nd: 1644
* 3rd: 1788
* 4th: 1750
* 5th: 1486
* 6th: 1051
* 7th: 722
* 8th: 420
* 9th: 194
* 10th: 93
* 11th: 22
* 12th or lower: 0

Therefore, chance of:
* minor premiership: 8.3%
* home semi final: 60.1%
* top 8: 96.9%

I hope to tweak the assumptions a bit with home teams and teams higher on the ladder getting some advantage. I'll post results as they come to hand.
 
@Juro said:
I've been doing a bit of playing with simulations to see what could happen over the remaining rounds.

I have made the following simplifying assumptions:
* each game is a coin toss with each team having 50% chance of winning
* the winning margin in every game is 10

Over 10,000 simulations, the number of time Wests Tigers came each position was:
* 1st: 830
* 2nd: 1644
* 3rd: 1788
* 4th: 1750
* 5th: 1486
* 6th: 1051
* 7th: 722
* 8th: 420
* 9th: 194
* 10th: 93
* 11th: 22
* 12th or lower: 0

Therefore, chance of:
* minor premiership: 8.3%
* home semi final: 60.1%
* top 8: 96.9%

I hope to tweak the assumptions a bit with home teams and teams higher on the ladder getting some advantage. I'll post results as they come to hand.
Click to expand...

I think we have officially found the person with the most time on their hands :eek:pen_mouth:
 
Toss of the coin was just a figure of speech. The computer was doing all the tossing… :slight_smile:
 
Okay, scenario 2:

I have made the following simplifying assumptions:
* home team has a 60% chance of winning
* the winning margin in every game is 10

Over 10,000 simulations, the number of time Wests Tigers came each position was:
* 1st: 750
* 2nd: 1533
* 3rd: 1777
* 4th: 1759
* 5th: 1586
* 6th: 1114
* 7th: 751
* 8th: 423
* 9th: 199
* 10th: 78
* 11th: 29
* 12th: 1
* 13th or lower: 0

Therefore, chance of:
* minor premiership: 7.5%
* home semi final: 58.2%
* top 8: 96.9%
 
Okay, scenario 3:

I have made the following simplifying assumptions:
* team's chance of winning determined by position on ladder = 50% + (opposition position - your position) x 3%
* teams positions are updated after each round
* Melbourne are treated as currently being 5th based on number of wins for purposes of chance of winning
* the winning margin in every game is 10

An example of the chance of winning, team 1 vs team 16 would have 50% + (16 - 1) x 3% = 95% chance of winning. Team 5 vs team 6 would have 50% + (6 - 5) x 3% = 53% chance of winning.

Over 10,000 simulations, the number of time Wests Tigers came each position was:
* 1st: 232
* 2nd: 954
* 3rd: 1610
* 4th: 2851
* 5th: 2028
* 6th: 1363
* 7th: 636
* 8th: 258
* 9th: 58
* 10th: 10
* 11th or lower: 0

Therefore, chance of:
* minor premiership: 2.3%
* home semi final: 56.5%
* top 8: 99.3%
 
With a compatibility of 97%, Wests Tigers are your perfect match!!
 
Juro,
that's great work mate. I love numbers so that kind of analysis gives me a little woody - (am i allowed to say that)
 
I agree with steven_tiger, one more win and I'll be content. That's a guaranteed spot in the 8 no matter what.
 
yep, agreed. One more win and to do that against the monkey (that is known as the Panthers) off our back, would be very nice, thank you.
 
30 points will get us 6-8th. With our for and against not great, 30 points will probably give us 7th or 8th place. But it will ensure us a finals spot. 28 points will be enough for 8th place given that other results go our way. When you look at the run that Souths, Raiders, Eels, Knights have in the last four rounds, it is hard to see them making it to 28 points. But one more win and we will be okay. Two or three, even better!
 
I have always thought 28 will be enough but that was with a positive for and against. We could end up well below par if we lose all of em.
 
Pretty sure I said earlier in the thread that 30 pts will guarantee you a spot in the 8 in any year.
 
30 points is not always enough. In 1999, Canberra finished the season on 31 points with 13 wins, 1 draw, 9 losses and 2 byes. They finished in 9th place.

All you need is for a few teams to be horrible and win very few games, and the top teams to be pretty even, and the points required could possibly be much higher than 30\. It doesn't happen every year, but it is always a possibility.
 
I'll amend to "nearly always" - I drew the conclusion based on stats provided by another member
 
Scenario 1, round 22:

I have made the following simplifying assumptions:
* each game is a coin toss with each team having 50% chance of winning
* the winning margin in every game is 10

Over 10,000 simulations, the number of time Wests Tigers came each position was:
* 1st: 230
* 2nd: 1368
* 3rd: 1565
* 4th: 1591
* 5th: 1515
* 6th: 1113
* 7th: 1099
* 8th: 839
* 9th: 503
* 10th: 161
* 11th: 16
* 12th or lower: 0

Therefore, chance of:
* minor premiership: 2.3% (last week 7.5%)
* home semi final: 47.5% (last week 58.2%)
* top 8: 93.2% (last week 96.9%)
 
Scenario 2, round 22:

I have made the following simplifying assumptions:
* home team has a 60% chance of winning
* the winning margin in every game is 10

Over 10,000 simulations, the number of time Wests Tigers came each position was:
* 1st: 177
* 2nd: 1369
* 3rd: 1516
* 4th: 1671
* 5th: 1554
* 6th: 1140
* 7th: 1194
* 8th: 790
* 9th: 453
* 10th: 127
* 11th: 9
* 12th or lower: 0

Therefore, chance of:
* minor premiership: 1.8% (last week 7.5%)
* home semi final: 47.3 (last week 58.2%)
* top 8: 94.1% (last week 96.9%)
 
Scenario 3, round 22:

I have made the following simplifying assumptions:
* team's chance of winning determined by position on ladder = 50% + (opposition position - your position) x 3%
* teams positions are updated after each round
* Melbourne are treated as currently being 5th based on number of wins for purposes of chance of winning
* the winning margin in every game is 10

An example of the chance of winning, team 1 vs team 16 would have 50% + (16 - 1) x 3% = 95% chance of winning. Team 5 vs team 6 would have 50% + (6 - 5) x 3% = 53% chance of winning.

Over 10,000 simulations, the number of time Wests Tigers came each position was:
* 1st: 73
* 2nd: 1671
* 3rd: 2444
* 4th: 2387
* 5th: 1551
* 6th: 989
* 7th: 514
* 8th: 280
* 9th: 78
* 10th: 13
* 11th or lower: 0

Therefore, chance of:
* minor premiership: 7.3% (last week 2.3%)
* home semi final: 65.6% (last week 56.5%)
* top 8: 99.1% (last week 99.3%)

These numbers have changed a bit from last week, not in the direction I expected. I might have made a mistake somewhere…
 
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