Juro
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 12, 2009
- Messages
- 2,859
I've been doing a bit of playing with simulations to see what could happen over the remaining rounds.
I have made the following simplifying assumptions:
* each game is a coin toss with each team having 50% chance of winning
* the winning margin in every game is 10
Over 10,000 simulations, the number of time Wests Tigers came each position was:
* 1st: 830
* 2nd: 1644
* 3rd: 1788
* 4th: 1750
* 5th: 1486
* 6th: 1051
* 7th: 722
* 8th: 420
* 9th: 194
* 10th: 93
* 11th: 22
* 12th or lower: 0
Therefore, chance of:
* minor premiership: 8.3%
* home semi final: 60.1%
* top 8: 96.9%
I hope to tweak the assumptions a bit with home teams and teams higher on the ladder getting some advantage. I'll post results as they come to hand.
I have made the following simplifying assumptions:
* each game is a coin toss with each team having 50% chance of winning
* the winning margin in every game is 10
Over 10,000 simulations, the number of time Wests Tigers came each position was:
* 1st: 830
* 2nd: 1644
* 3rd: 1788
* 4th: 1750
* 5th: 1486
* 6th: 1051
* 7th: 722
* 8th: 420
* 9th: 194
* 10th: 93
* 11th: 22
* 12th or lower: 0
Therefore, chance of:
* minor premiership: 8.3%
* home semi final: 60.1%
* top 8: 96.9%
I hope to tweak the assumptions a bit with home teams and teams higher on the ladder getting some advantage. I'll post results as they come to hand.