Wests Tigers and the finals

Time for some more playing…

If we lose our remaining 4 matches, what is the chance of us getting in the top 8?

Scenario 1 (50% chance of other teams winning their games): 55.6%
Scenario 2 (60% chance of home teams winning their games): 64.9%
Scenario 3 (win chance based on ladder position): 86.0%

I'm guessing that scenario 3 looks better for us because other teams vying for the final positions in the top 8 have tough runs into the finals (eg rabittohs, eels).
 
… And on the other side of the coin...

If we somehow manage to win our remaining 4 games, what is the chance of getting a home semifinal?

Scenario 1: 99.7%
Scenario 2: 99.7%
Scenario 3: 98.2%

That would be nice...
 
Congratulations to the Wests Tigers on making the semi finals in 2010\. Lets hope now for a top 4 finish and a home semi final at Leichhardt Oval (then alternating with cambo each year we host a home semi).
 
@MGB said:
Juro is your main language Binary?
Click to expand...

I always had a soft spot for hexadecimal… if only so I could make my calculator show rude words...

I'm looking forward to updating the numbers again after tonight's result.
 
Now that we've got that burden off our back, we should start to build off our efforts this year and translate it into seasons beyond. We can't afford complacency, that was our main problem in '06.
 
As of the end of this round, Wests Tigers can still miss out on the finals going off F/A. It would require several upsets, but it's still very possible.

A draw or a win would be enough to secure a finals spot

c'mon boys!
 
If Parra win all 3 which is quite possible considering their draw, I think there is a strong possibility a team will come 9th with 30 points. That team being the one with the worst for and against of the 4 or 5 teams on 30.

Its been a strange old season and yes we are all but there. But I am a bit bemused/surprised by some of our players saying we are guarenteed a semi spot. We lose all three and parra will all three or canberra or souths we could be struggling badly with for and against.

Unlikely but you couldnt rule it out. Confident we will win 1 of the next 2 anyway…
 
I was confident 30 was enough and now after having a play with the ladder predictor, if we lost all 3 and the others teams back on 24 win all theirs, we could be goooooorne like Eddie suggested.
I put in my results for next 3 rounds, and at this stage (unless we can hit another gear from here) can only see us beating the Storm at Leichhardt (just).
I got this final table which means, another win from the next 3 games is vital.

![](http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/9596/ladderprediction.jpg)

From what I've predicted, looks the the team will be staying in the Gold Coast for another week to play the Titans at Skilled for a 2nd week in a row. That Round 26 game is also a playoff for a home final.
 
i think we can win at least 2 maybe all 3\. it all depends on how we play this week against Parra. we win it ends their year and will give us a heap of confidence for the last 2 games. i am always happy to play the gold coast as for some reason i am always confident playing them
 
It's so important we beat Parra, it takes them out of contention and more importantly cements our top 4 spot with two weeks remaining. The Titans take on the Roosters this weekend which is great for us either way but I will be hoping for a Roosters victory. Personally I would hate to have to play the Titans at Skilled in week one, that's about as difficult as it can get.
 
Scenario 1, round 23:

I have made the following simplifying assumptions:
* each game is a coin toss with each team having 50% chance of winning
* the winning margin in every game is 10

Over 10,000 simulations, the number of time Wests Tigers came each position was:
* 1st: 158
* 2nd: 3535
* 3rd: 1734
* 4th: 1499
* 5th: 1342
* 6th: 824
* 7th: 635
* 8th: 254
* 9th: 19
* 10th or lower: 0

Therefore, chance of:
* minor premiership: 1.6% (last week 2.3%)
* home semi final: 69.3% (last week 47.5%)
* top 8: 99.8% (last week 93.2%)

PLEASE NOTE, THE F/A ASSUMPTION MAY BE CRITICAL BECAUSE A BIG WIN OR LOSS COULD MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE TO OUR FINAL POSITION!
 
@Juro said:
Scenario 1, round 23:

I have made the following simplifying assumptions:
* each game is a coin toss with each team having 50% chance of winning
* the winning margin in every game is 10

Over 10,000 simulations, the number of time Wests Tigers came each position was:
* 1st: 158
* 2nd: 3535
* 3rd: 1734
* 4th: 1499
* 5th: 1342
* 6th: 824
* 7th: 635
* 8th: 254
* 9th: 19
* 10th or lower: 0

Therefore, chance of:
* minor premiership: 1.6% (last week 2.3%)
* home semi final: 69.3% (last week 47.5%)
* top 8: 99.8% (last week 93.2%)

PLEASE NOTE, THE F/A ASSUMPTION MAY BE CRITICAL BECAUSE A BIG WIN OR LOSS COULD MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE TO OUR FINAL POSITION!
Click to expand...

That is good work mate. This finals scenario has been doing my head in, and what you have done is just what we need.
 
Scenario 2, round 23:

I have made the following simplifying assumptions:
* home team has a 60% chance of winning
* the winning margin in every game is 10

Over 10,000 simulations, the number of time Wests Tigers came each position was:
* 1st: 149
* 2nd: 2246
* 3rd: 1998
* 4th: 1763
* 5th: 1733
* 6th: 1106
* 7th: 709
* 8th: 285
* 9th: 11
* 10th or lower: 0

Therefore, chance of:
* minor premiership: 1.5% (last week 1.8%)
* home semi final: 61.6% (last week 47.3%)
* top 8: 99.9% (last week 94.1%)
 
Scenario 3, round 23:

I have made the following simplifying assumptions:
* team's chance of winning determined by position on ladder = 50% + (opposition position - your position) x 3%
* teams positions are updated after each round
* Melbourne are treated as currently being 5th based on number of wins for purposes of chance of winning
* the winning margin in every game is 10

An example of the chance of winning, team 1 vs team 16 would have 50% + (16 - 1) x 3% = 95% chance of winning. Team 5 vs team 6 would have 50% + (6 - 5) x 3% = 53% chance of winning.

Over 10,000 simulations, the number of time Wests Tigers came each position was:
* 1st: 13
* 2nd: 2240
* 3rd: 1718
* 4th: 1987
* 5th: 1806
* 6th: 1482
* 7th: 568
* 8th: 183
* 9th: 3
* 10th or lower: 0

Therefore, chance of:
* minor premiership: 0.1% (last week 7.3%)
* home semi final: 59.6% (last week 65.6%)
* top 8: 99.97% (last week 99.1%)
 
For anyone who's interested, the betting agencies have withdrawn the Wests Tigers from the "top 8" betting market.
 
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