Coronavirus Outbreak

[Jedi_Tiger]

stadiums were a good idea nobody thought this might jappen
hey lets not stop bagging scomo though

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

stadiums were a good idea nobody thought this might jappen
hey lets not stop bagging scomo though

They aren't bagging Scomo, it had nothing to do with him.

 

[Snake]

it was gladys that didnt stop the cruise boat not Scomo
i have said before better than idiot shorten and his union mates running the show or Eachway Albo

Glady’s is done she will be gone the minute this has passed ... been shown that she has not got a handle on
her position or the people around her .. a shame as I thought she was ok !

 

[Tim Sheens]

stadiums were a good idea nobody thought this might jappen
hey lets not stop bagging scomo though

Yeah, we should join you, as above on this page and bag those that have long been pushing for reasonable living wages and health infrastructure to help those exact same people that are saving lives along with those in the supermarkets and trucks etcetera keeping our community running right now.

 

[Snake]

stadiums were a good idea nobody thought this might jappen
hey lets not stop bagging scomo though

Yeah, we should join you, as above on this page and bag those that have long been pushing for reasonable living wages and health infrastructure to allow those exact same people that are saving lives along with those in the supermarkets and trucks etcetera keeping our community running right now.

Seeing your such a big figures man you should gives us all the actual figures of what the Liberal government in NSW has ACTUALLY spent since being in power on the hospital system to what Labor spent in running the hospital system into the ground for 25yrs ..
I also thought that Australia had one of or the highest basic wage rates in the world .. plus money for everyone with one of or the best welfare systems on the planet ... but you can never get enough for some !

 

[Tiger5150]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data. AS a reference, Italy is growing exponentially with a multiplier of 1.1 yesterday, UK the same, Germany 1.11. At Italy & UK's rate (admittedly only measured over 24hrs) our total for 10 April drops to 10950.


A glimmer of hope?

I posted the above two days ago. As I stated then, I was worried because the exponential multiplier, the engine of the exponential growth was frighteningly steady and consistent. It simply wont budge and marches on relentlessly. In the post above I noted multipliers of 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26. Yesterday to complete the series it was 1.25, again...relentlessly consistent.

Today there is a possible weakening. The exponential multiplier for today was 1.13. I have been waiting for some sign that the curve might flatten and today is the first glimmer of hope. As a lifelong Balmain & Wests Tigers fan I am conditioned to expect that tomorrow everything will collapse and turn to crap, but its a ray of light.

To give an indication of how significant it is....if we continue at yesterdays rate of 1.25, in two weeks on 08.04.20, the cases will be 49996. DoH have nominated 43000 as the point that our ICU beds go under. If the rate is reduced to 1.23, then the cases on the same day would be 40538. If we are somehow able to keep it at todays rate of 1.13 it would be 13462. A MASSIVE difference in every way.

As I say, I am a natural sceptic and its probable that today is just a blip and we will march on at our usual rate which averages out at 1.23, but there is some hope. It takes 3=5 days for symptoms to develop, it has been 3 days since the big clampdown. Maybe...just maybe things are starting to turn/

Time will tell.

Anyway if anyone cares here is the confirmed cases graph, note the curve flattening today.

Here is the graph of the exponential multiplier, again note the dip today. If it gets to 1, its over.



Ok....time for the update nobody asked for.

A couple of days ago I said that it may just have been a blip, but after two weeks of solid steady exponential multipliers of 1,23-1.26, we have now had three days where the multipliers have been 1.13, 1.15 and 1.13.

Its a step in the right direction. Hopefully as these stricter measures start to change people thinking it will flow through to the data and we will see these numbers to continue to fall.

It is possibly some light on the horizon.



I think we wait and see until after the Qld elections 5150

I'm expecting a spike

All it will take will be a polling booth officer to have contracted the virus ....and from what I saw yesterday when voting ......not confident at all

Im with you Happy, Im not getting excited and all it will take is something like that.

BUT......I have noticed a different perception on the streets, people do seem to be finally taking this more seriously. Hopefully that starts to trickle through to numbers reduced.

 

[Jedi_Tiger]

Gladys will get back in in NSW easily time of crisis stick with Libs usually plus no opposition.

 

[Geo]

Tossing up what to watch... Deep Impact Outbreak Contagion or the jewel in the crown Resident Evil..

 

[mike]

Tossing up what to watch... Deep Impact Outbreak Contagion or the jewel in the crown Resident Evil..

How about the TV series The Expanse.

 

[twentyforty]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.

 

[Tiger5150]

Some interesting information in this opinion article, particularly that the CCP shut down the wet markets after the SARS outbreak but re-opened them months later.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/chinas-cruel-wet-markets-that-caused-coronavirus-and-brought-the-world-to-its-knees-should-be-banned/news-story/e92d62f2188361bec9079f105eb37699

 

[Tim Sheens]

stadiums were a good idea nobody thought this might jappen
hey lets not stop bagging scomo though

Yeah, we should join you, as above on this page and bag those that have long been pushing for reasonable living wages and health infrastructure to allow those exact same people that are saving lives along with those in the supermarkets and trucks etcetera keeping our community running right now.

Seeing your such a big figures man you should gives us all the actual figures of what the Liberal government in NSW has ACTUALLY spent since being in power on the hospital system to what Labor spent in running the hospital system into the ground for 25yrs ..
I also thought that Australia had one of or the highest basic wage rates in the world .. plus money for everyone with one of or the best welfare systems on the planet ... but you can never get enough for some !

Yeah, I know, fancy wanting a single rate of tax from about TWICE the amount of Newstart allowance out to $200k, instead of funding health and education Never enough for some in an economy that DOES NOT provide job opportunities for some 5% or more of the available workforce. In other words, there were NO positions for them to fill.
Many in their fifties or older have never been employed again post GFC, with many more having already lost employment and will join them as a result of this health crisis.

I haven't mentioned anything about NSW and doubt I have in this thread at all, but feel free to take it there if you wish and check the figures for yourself, but take it to the politics thread. That said, the previous state government was voted out, including by me and nearly a decade ago at that.

Meanwhile, back to politics relating to this crisis. To my knowledge, as the opposition's of any persuasion at both Federal and State level have not been given a single seat at any of the decision tables, they are free to put their in two bob's worth outside of that, as long as it is constructive. As such, we can only judge the response of those in charge of those jurisdictions and discuss alternatives.

 

[GNR4LIFE]

A 17 year old in the US was turned away cos he didn’t have healthcare and subsequently died from Covid. What a country.

 

[GNR4LIFE]

USA have surpassed 100, 000 cases btw.

 

[TillLindemann]

Before this it was Greta and penny wong and climate change and they sky was falling in
now not a word
in order to kick start economy when we can lets dump this stupid kyoto agreement and get manufacturing back innthis country

Before I got gastro the doctors kept telling me to quit smoking, now they don't mention it! As I soon as I get over gastro I am going to smoke so much!

 

[Tiger5150]

I’m having difficulty in understanding social distancing rules? It seems ok to stand in a queue to vote but a funeral must be limited to 10 mourners. It seems ok for hairdressers to continue to work, but beaches must be closed because the bathers are getting too close?
Has this pandemic shown us how ineffective our political system is ? Or are we just lacking leadership? I can understand why we need to take advice from WHO , but we always seem to be behind the pace? Russia closed its borders, and started contact tracing, in January. I’m not suggesting Russia is a model to follow or a country I would like to live in , merely pointing to decisive leadership.

Not having a go at you, nor am I necessarily defending the Govt or leadership, but what exactly do you think they should do? Are you suggesting a full lockdown?

Seems that most people are screaming that the Govt "should do more!!!" but I think it seems to be a lot of people who would not vote Libs in any situation.

Personally, I dont want the Govt to do more, or do less. I want them to take the advice of ALL the experts available to them to chart a course that navigates the tricky path of minimising deaths, ensuring our health system is not overwhelmed yet maintaining the maximum economic heartbeat possible.

Of course the natural reaction is to think to stop everything, shut down everything in total lockdown, and it may come to that and be necessary if it looks like it will overwhelm the health system, and Id be all for it in those circumstances, but if it is possible to reduce the rate of spread to a point that the health system can cope, yet keep as much of the economy running, then for me that is the best path.

This may seem callous for want of a better word, but when this is over, we are going to need to climb out of it and the depth of the decline economically will have a massive impact on many peoples lives for years to come and it will be the lower socioeconomic levels hit hardest. Rich people with assets will make it through.

The natural reaction is always 1 death is too many, but we average 4500 deaths a year for influenza and we dont shut down the economy to save those deaths. I am NOT suggeting this is the same as the flu, its not and if we did nothing there would be more than 10 x that number dead, but there does need to be a balance between possibility of deaths and possibility of economic depression.

 

[Mighty_Tiger]

Tossing up what to watch... Deep Impact Outbreak Contagion or the jewel in the crown Resident Evil..

Watch resident evil or walking dead if you want to think about what could fo wrong with a bad cure

 

[TillLindemann]

USA have surpassed 100, 000 cases btw.

And now Italy's had another record day of deaths, and Spain is catching up. We're seeing a crazy growth rate all over the world now. Deaths now over 27,000, I think it was 'only' 19,000 this time yesterday.

 

[twentyforty]

A patient attended the hospital asking to be tested for COVID-19. He was asked if he had recently arrived from a hotspot. He told them ..no, so was sent away with a flu diagnosis. A week later when doing his own contact tracing he realised he had attended a wedding which included at least one other guest with confirmed COVID -19. He returned to the hospital and was tested positive. It’s easy to flatten the curve if we’re testing the wrong people.

 

[Tiger5150]

Meanwhile, back to politics relating to this crisis. To my knowledge, as the opposition's of any persuasion at both Federal and State level have not been given a single seat at any of the decision tables, they are free to put their in two bob's worth outside of that, as long as it is constructive. As such, we can only judge the response of those in charge of those jurisdictions and discuss alternatives.

I dont think its reasonable to expect opposition to be given a seat at a decision table, unless there is a specific committee formed. Govt will live or die by these decisions and its unreasonable to expect them to include the opposition and I think it would be counterproductive.

A good example of this is the rescue package just passed in the US (the largest $$$ bill ever passed in history). It was a bipartisan bill, written and constructed by both Republicans and democrats. At the last minute it was stopped by Nancy Pelosi who held it up for three days getting prk barrelling like $25M for the JFK Centre for Arts and Performance. Not very productive.

Our system doesnt really allow the kind of bipartisanship that you are suggesting, but I am sure that in these big decisions that the opposition is being briefed about what is going on and needed.

IMO if Labor was in power, the measures taken would be IDENTICAL, after taking advice from the same experts. Where there would be difference would be the economic stimulus packages where I think there would be significant differences and its impossible to say who would be right or wrong (IVe been impressed with the idea that business only get handouts if they keep employees employed).

I havent voted Labor since Keating but Ive been impressed with their restraint in these circumstances. They have had a few jabs at peripheral things (like clarity in communication...fair enough) but they havent torn into the Govt which I think is sensible. No doubt they are being involved behind the scenes and they also want Australia to get through as well as they can.