Coronavirus Outbreak

[cochise]

Gladys Berejiklian said it last night.

What did she say ? Every time I listen to her she gets it pretty much right. The last poor comment I heard her state was that NSW can handle anything. No area has been able to handle the Delta strain without high vaccination rates.

I can't remember the exact quote but it was along the lines that we are going to have to accept that there will be deaths, more deaths than we are having now, but we have to accept that and it is the reality we face. Just like we do with the Flu.

Yep the narrative has changed…it’s just a numbers and data game now..

It's changing now so that case numbers aren't even an issue. It think the focus is now on hospitalizations and maybe deaths.

We aren't used to seeing things like this.

That X amount of death is acceptable is not acceptable to me..

If the table 5.6 that I saw has Doherty expecting 57 deaths of <16 year olds that are yet to be availed vaccination in the first 180 days after opening at 80% comes true, such will not be acceptable to a hell of a lot people.

You need to be extremely careful using any model like you've used it here. The predictive ability of these models isn't that good.

I work in a big IT department. I was in a meeting and one young guy was stating our predicted business next year was something like $101,000,205. That number was completely meaningless because there was no way he had the ability to predict that figure with that degree of accuracy.

The problem with cherry picking a piece of information like you've done is that it isn't meant to be used like that.

Did you say the Doherty reports was fact?

 

[Tim Sheens]

Gladys Berejiklian said it last night.

What did she say ? Every time I listen to her she gets it pretty much right. The last poor comment I heard her state was that NSW can handle anything. No area has been able to handle the Delta strain without high vaccination rates.

I can't remember the exact quote but it was along the lines that we are going to have to accept that there will be deaths, more deaths than we are having now, but we have to accept that and it is the reality we face. Just like we do with the Flu.

Yep the narrative has changed…it’s just a numbers and data game now..

It's changing now so that case numbers aren't even an issue. It think the focus is now on hospitalizations and maybe deaths.

We aren't used to seeing things like this.

That X amount of death is acceptable is not acceptable to me..

If the table 5.6 that I saw has Doherty expecting 57 deaths of <16 year olds that are yet to be availed vaccination in the first 180 days after opening at 80% comes true, such will not be acceptable to a hell of a lot people.

You need to be extremely careful using any model like you've used it here. The predictive ability of these models isn't that good.

I work in a big IT department. I was in a meeting and one young guy was stating our predicted business next year was something like $101,000,205. That number was completely meaningless because there was no way he had the ability to predict that figure with that degree of accuracy.

The problem with cherry picking a piece of information like you've done is that it isn't meant to be used like that.

Cherry picking my arse. That is the predictive figure from that which you preach to all and sundry is the basis for opening up.

You've taken one little piece of information in that report and you are using it incorrectly. That report doesn't guarantee that many people will die. Do you understand that point ?

I thought that you would have understood the written English of "If ..... comes true" 's meaning and that it was in reply to a view on acceptability of deaths.

Of course the report doesn't guarantee anything at all, but one cannot cherry pick things that one doesn't like such as an expected 57 children dying in 6 months and separate them from the findings.

 

[CocaCola]

Where did allnthe Influenza deaths go? They couldn't be hiding under any other death statistic right? You would have to be 'CraZy' to consider that.



Enjoy your next rally

He solved it. The whole thing is a scam. It was only the flu.

Seriously you wonder how anyone could be so naive.

It's all really the flu.

Love how you did a180 on your views.. Maybe you forgot you were one of those labelling people as crazies or needing mental help in the conspiracy thread you started.

Let me remind you on what I have stated previously so you & others don't have to make assumtions on my view...

- I've never stated covid is a hoax or not real.
I stated it may be a severe version of the flu that is deadly to the elderly & those with underlying chronic health issues.
- I stated that covid virus had been worked on in Wuhan Virology Lab.. I only posed the question, was it released by intention or an accidental lab leak.
You (Earl) seemed to think of that as crazy. You were so adamant it came from a bat / wuhan wet markets.

- I said the pandemic will lead for a push to get the majority vaccinated.. It would lead to the masses being controled by governments, and possible restrictions being put in place;
No International travel or work (certain industries) without being vaccinated.

- The elite ruling class would get rich during the pandemic, while poor/middle class with struggle. (So many billionaires doubled their wealth).

It's all crazy talk until its not right?

 

[Tiger5150]

Here is some information on children developing COVID.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(21)00198-X/fulltext
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/08/10/hundreds-us-children-hospital-covid-should-uk-worried/

>Implications of all the available evidence
>Our data confirm that COVID-19 in UK school-aged children is usually of short duration and low symptom burden. Some children do have longer illness duration, and our findings validate their experiences; however, most of these children usually recover with time. Our findings emphasise that appropriate resources will be necessary for any child with prolonged illness, whether due to COVID-19 or other illnesses. Our study provides crucial data to inform discussions about the effect and implications of the pandemic on health-care resource allocation.

>A report from the American Academy of Paediatrics last month noted that although "it appears" that severe illness due to Covid-19 is "uncommon" among children, "there is an urgent need to collect more data on longer-term impacts of the pandemic on children, including ways the virus may harm the long-term physical health of infected children."

The effect on children does not appear to be anything like the effect on older people.

There are vaccines in progress for 5-11 yo's.

There doesn't appear to be a huge swathes of data/reports on this.

The Doherty report is not the right place to be predicting figures of death amongst children from COVID. It's not the right place to argue the reproductive rate or the deaths of any people in certain demographics. It's to be used as a guideline on which to base policy decisions. You'd get a lot more value out of looking at the various scenarios in which we use harsh lockdowns and when we don't. That is much broader and much more likely to have predictive ability.

If I find or more data/reports come out from valid sources I'll definitely provide that information. At this point though I don't believe there is any reason at all to push the panic button.

Ok…so cherry picking

 

[Tiger5150]

One other point I'd make is that there is no way we are going into a Florida type situation from where we are today.

We are not going to just let it rip. This has been clearly articulated by NSW health.

It's not a black and white argument in relation to harsh lockdowns like we are in now compared to complete freedom.

In Florida the nutter there has mandated against kids wearing masks. We won't do anything as stupid as this.

He hasn’t but you have never let the truth get in the way of your fantasies

 

[Tiger5150]

Gladys Berejiklian said it last night.

What did she say ? Every time I listen to her she gets it pretty much right. The last poor comment I heard her state was that NSW can handle anything. No area has been able to handle the Delta strain without high vaccination rates.

I can't remember the exact quote but it was along the lines that we are going to have to accept that there will be deaths, more deaths than we are having now, but we have to accept that and it is the reality we face. Just like we do with the Flu.

Yep the narrative has changed…it’s just a numbers and data game now..

It's changing now so that case numbers aren't even an issue. It think the focus is now on hospitalizations and maybe deaths.

We aren't used to seeing things like this.

That X amount of death is acceptable is not acceptable to me..

If the table 5.6 that I saw has Doherty expecting 57 deaths of <16 year olds that are yet to be availed vaccination in the first 180 days after opening at 80% comes true, such will not be acceptable to a hell of a lot people.

You need to be extremely careful using any model like you've used it here. The predictive ability of these models isn't that good.

Also Earl....*"The Doherty report is based on a massive data-set the like of which we’ve probably never seen. Why argue with it ?"*

https://weststigersforum.com/topic/30513/coronavirus-outbreak/13484

@Cultured_Bogan - I assume this is what you are talking about.

I don't want to get into an argument with this guy but I'll state a couple of points:-

1. This guy has gotten it wrong consistently. He has made so many big claims and they've basically all been wrong.
2. He pushed so hard a podcast that is a centrepiece of the disinformation within the COVID pandemic. I'm not even joking. I found his podcast while searching disinformation. It was criminal. It was pulled off YouTube. I posted an accurate video from Vox and he complained and it was pulled down from here. I don't care but that is crazy stuff.

Complete fabricated rubbish from Earl as always. I’m not going to bother with a rebuttal other than to say for EVERY time I make any definitive statement about something on this topic I ALWAYS post a link to the data and people can make their own conclusions. I only post reputable journals and sources.

Earl on the other hand continually talks about facts and data but NEVER posts his sources. Simple enough to go through his and my posts to verify.

It’s a free world but Earl is continually posting misinformation here and I’ll continually call him out.

 

[earl]

Gladys Berejiklian said it last night.

What did she say ? Every time I listen to her she gets it pretty much right. The last poor comment I heard her state was that NSW can handle anything. No area has been able to handle the Delta strain without high vaccination rates.

I can't remember the exact quote but it was along the lines that we are going to have to accept that there will be deaths, more deaths than we are having now, but we have to accept that and it is the reality we face. Just like we do with the Flu.

Yep the narrative has changed…it’s just a numbers and data game now..

It's changing now so that case numbers aren't even an issue. It think the focus is now on hospitalizations and maybe deaths.

We aren't used to seeing things like this.

That X amount of death is acceptable is not acceptable to me..

If the table 5.6 that I saw has Doherty expecting 57 deaths of <16 year olds that are yet to be availed vaccination in the first 180 days after opening at 80% comes true, such will not be acceptable to a hell of a lot people.

You need to be extremely careful using any model like you've used it here. The predictive ability of these models isn't that good.

I work in a big IT department. I was in a meeting and one young guy was stating our predicted business next year was something like $101,000,205. That number was completely meaningless because there was no way he had the ability to predict that figure with that degree of accuracy.

The problem with cherry picking a piece of information like you've done is that it isn't meant to be used like that.

Did you say the Doherty reports was fact?

The predictive analytics are not accurate. You cannot use those figures. I'll prove it to you as well. How many cases have we had now ? Have we had that many deaths ?

If the answer is we haven't then I've got it right and people arguing with me have it wrong.

The Doherty report is a predictive model based on good data. They can't predict to that level of detail though.

 

[earl]

. I’m not going to bother with a rebuttal other than to say for EVERY time I make any definitive statement about something on this topic I ALWAYS post a link to the data and people can make their own conclusions. I only post reputable journals and sources.

His proof was a podcast that was taken down from You Tube. How hilarious is that.

1. Lab theory - no proof
2. Ivermectin (a drug which the clinical evidence shows is not statistically effective) - failure.
3. Vaccines don't work - failure
4. Pfizer efficacy is better than AZ - he doesn't even understand efficacy and he got it wrong.

You've gotten everything wrong. Every single one.

I'm pulling for you to get one thing right.

How is your podcast going now ? Still telling everyone to watch it ?

 

[earl]

Here is some information on children developing COVID.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(21)00198-X/fulltext
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/08/10/hundreds-us-children-hospital-covid-should-uk-worried/

>Implications of all the available evidence
>Our data confirm that COVID-19 in UK school-aged children is usually of short duration and low symptom burden. Some children do have longer illness duration, and our findings validate their experiences; however, most of these children usually recover with time. Our findings emphasise that appropriate resources will be necessary for any child with prolonged illness, whether due to COVID-19 or other illnesses. Our study provides crucial data to inform discussions about the effect and implications of the pandemic on health-care resource allocation.

>A report from the American Academy of Paediatrics last month noted that although "it appears" that severe illness due to Covid-19 is "uncommon" among children, "there is an urgent need to collect more data on longer-term impacts of the pandemic on children, including ways the virus may harm the long-term physical health of infected children."

The effect on children does not appear to be anything like the effect on older people.

There are vaccines in progress for 5-11 yo's.

There doesn't appear to be a huge swathes of data/reports on this.

The Doherty report is not the right place to be predicting figures of death amongst children from COVID. It's not the right place to argue the reproductive rate or the deaths of any people in certain demographics. It's to be used as a guideline on which to base policy decisions. You'd get a lot more value out of looking at the various scenarios in which we use harsh lockdowns and when we don't. That is much broader and much more likely to have predictive ability.

If I find or more data/reports come out from valid sources I'll definitely provide that information. At this point though I don't believe there is any reason at all to push the panic button.

Ok…so cherry picking

No - proper information from proper research papers. The opposite of you and your podcast that led to people dying and was pulled from YouTube.

I also post sources. Pretty funny that you got another thing wrong.

 

[earl]

“If … comes true” 's meaning and that it was in reply to a view on acceptability of deaths.

I do get this. It's just that it's no good jumping at shadows. I don't want any deaths especially younger people.

I posted good data/reports on the effect on children. I assume there will be more data out at some point.

 

[earl]

It’s all crazy talk until its not right?

Everyone is getting pushed to get vaccinated because it saves lives. It's that simple. If you want to look at it economically the cost to society is too high not to be vaccinated. That is why there are restrictions being put in place in relation to unvaccinated people. If you aren't vaccinated you are a bigger cost to society.

As for people making money. Anyone who has money in Pfizer will be doing great. If you have money in Super you probably have money in Pfizer. I'm pretty confident I'm one of the elite making money here.

COVID does tend to target the poor. The rich countries have vaccines and in developed countries the poor tend to more prone to listening to disinformation.

Your twist on the situation is crazy though. It's not the way you state it. There are valid reasons for all of your points.

 

[Demps]

I saw everyone posting their vaccine feedback so thought I'd share also.....

The needle didn't hurt at all.

Probably within an hour I felt tired and somewhat foggy. I had the needle around 12:45.
Once I was home at 3:30 PM, I was very tired.

Went about life as per normal.
Woke up at midnight very nauseous.
Threw up. Went back to sleep. Woke up again around 2AM and through up again.

Very disturbed sleep.
Woke up early for work, everything feels fine except my arm is very sore.

Not the worst experience though to be honest.

Looking forward to round 2 in three weeks.

 

[innsaneink]

Trooper ^^^

Soldier on.

Talkin about incentives or easing restrictions for the fully vaccinated.... Right now I'd be happy just to be able to get a decent haircut and a counter lunch at the pub

 

[tigger]

I saw everyone posting their vaccine feedback so thought I'd share also.....

The needle didn't hurt at all.

Probably within an hour I felt tired and somewhat foggy. I had the needle around 12:45.
Once I was home at 3:30 PM, I was very tired.

Went about life as per normal.
Woke up at midnight very nauseous.
Threw up. Went back to sleep. Woke up again around 2AM and through up again.

Very disturbed sleep.
Woke up early for work, everything feels fine except my arm is very sore.

Not the worst experience though to be honest.

Looking forward to round 2 in three weeks.

Haha. Sounds like a normal Saturday morning to me

 

[kiwitiger]

Trooper ^^^

Soldier on.

Talkin about incentives or easing restrictions for the fully vaccinated.... Right now I'd be happy just to be able to get a decent haircut and a **counter lunch at the pub**

God we have been in lockdown for only a week over here but that sounds so gooood.

 

[TigerTone]

I saw everyone posting their vaccine feedback so thought I'd share also.....

The needle didn't hurt at all.

Probably within an hour I felt tired and somewhat foggy. I had the needle around 12:45.
Once I was home at 3:30 PM, I was very tired.

Went about life as per normal.
Woke up at midnight very nauseous.
Threw up. Went back to sleep. Woke up again around 2AM and through up again.

Very disturbed sleep.
Woke up early for work, everything feels fine except my arm is very sore.

Not the worst experience though to be honest.

Looking forward to round 2 in three weeks.

Are you sure it was a vaccine centre you went to bro?
Disturbed sleep . throwing up etc , sounds like a Sunday morning recovery.

Mabrouk!
:+1: To your health bro.

 

[Pascoes_barber]

- I've never stated covid is a hoax or not real.
I stated it may be a severe version of the flu that is deadly to the elderly & those with underlying chronic health issues.

Fairly offensive to anyone that's lost friends/family members[*] to this illness.

The rest was tinfoil hat garbage. Wake up to yourself.


[*] Her 'underlying chronic health issue' was a broken bone. She caught COVID in hospital while getting it treated and passed away three weeks later.

 

[hank37w]

I saw everyone posting their vaccine feedback so thought I'd share also.....

The needle didn't hurt at all.

Probably within an hour I felt tired and somewhat foggy. I had the needle around 12:45.
Once I was home at 3:30 PM, I was very tired.

Went about life as per normal.
Woke up at midnight very nauseous.
Threw up. Went back to sleep. Woke up again around 2AM and through up again.

Very disturbed sleep.
Woke up early for work, everything feels fine except my arm is very sore.

Not the worst experience though to be honest.

Looking forward to round 2 in three weeks.

Haha. Sounds like a normal Saturday morning to me

Except you've only got to wait a week for the next round.

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

Trooper ^^^

Soldier on.

Talkin about incentives or easing restrictions for the fully vaccinated.... Right now I'd be happy just to be able to get a decent haircut and a counter lunch at the pub

I'd be happy with that.

 

[Cultured_Bogan]

Where did allnthe Influenza deaths go? They couldn't be hiding under any other death statistic right? You would have to be 'CraZy' to consider that.



Enjoy your next rally

He solved it. The whole thing is a scam. It was only the flu.

Seriously you wonder how anyone could be so naive.

It's all really the flu.

Love how you did a180 on your views.. Maybe you forgot you were one of those labelling people as crazies or needing mental help in the conspiracy thread you started.

Let me remind you on what I have stated previously so you & others don't have to make assumtions on my view...

- I've never stated covid is a hoax or not real.
I stated it may be a severe version of the flu that is deadly to the elderly & those with underlying chronic health issues.
- I stated that covid virus had been worked on in Wuhan Virology Lab.. I only posed the question, was it released by intention or an accidental lab leak.
You (Earl) seemed to think of that as crazy. You were so adamant it came from a bat / wuhan wet markets.

- I said the pandemic will lead for a push to get the majority vaccinated.. It would lead to the masses being controled by governments, and possible restrictions being put in place;
No International travel or work (certain industries) without being vaccinated.

- The elite ruling class would get rich during the pandemic, while poor/middle class with struggle. (So many billionaires doubled their wealth).

It's all crazy talk until its not right?

You make some reasonable points there.

COVID is mutating to a point now where it's starting to make younger people sicker and is starting to pick off healther younger people (people dying without underlying causes.) It is also not fully understood how the virus affects you long term (long COVID,) so it could be doing more damage than just the period you're ill with it. So the OG mantra of it's just killing and making the elderly sick doesn't wash anymore.

I don't think we'll ever know for certain where it has come from as we have zero chance of cooperation from China but it would be nice to see some proper investigation into the origins of the virus.

Mass vaccination is being pushed for a multitude of reasons. To prevent health systems from being overloaded with thousands of patients by minimising the effect it has on those who are infected, to make it harder for people to contract, and spread, the virus as it minimises the probability of the virus to mutate with less carriers. What I can't abide is people calling mRNA experimental and untested technology. It has been in practical use since 2011. It wasn't invented or dreamt up for treating COVID. You're already not allowed to send you kids to daycare and some schools if they have not been vaccinated. Smokers cannot smoke inside anymore. It's illegal to get behind the wheel after putting away a half dozen schooners. These are measures taken to prevent people engaging in risky behaviour creating problems for others. I don't believe anyone should be forced to be vaccinated, but you ought to live with the repercussions of that decision.

Your final point is a very valid one and one I will agree 100% with you on. The inequity between small business and larger businesses will grow even further. Amazon, Woolies, Coles, McDonalds, eBay, Harvey Norman, all these businesses will continue to grow and the mum and dad high street shops all go to the wall. The unfairness in it all is that everyone still has to participate in the capitalism (buy food, pay rent/mortgage/utilities,) but many have no direct means to earn from it, which means the state needs to step in and assist.

I am all for opening back up, I don't think that rolling lockdowns are sustainable forever, and I also don't think that it is healthy to expect people to live this way indefinitely. But certain things need to be done first to make this a reality. A large proportion of this country getting vaccinated will go a long way.