Russian invasion of Ukraine

It would be a lot weaker not importing the oil and gas and having a significant shortage in your own country. Even worse if things escalated and they entered a war unable to have sufficient fuels and oils to run an offensive.

US really have their hands tied. Internationally, they need China to condemn the invasion, otherwise if they send troops to Ukraine it will legitimise China's entrance into a war that will escalate into a world war.

Next either one of three things will happen:

1) If the USA stations troops in the Ukraine, China will attack Taiwan forcing the allies to defend its island chain into the pacific. Russia after Ukraine will move onto Poland forcing them to fight on two fronts.

2) China attacks Taiwan before allies station troops in Ukraine, The US mobilises troops to defend along the pacific island chain, India will join the allies to attack along the Nepalise border into china forcing them to defend multiple fronts. If the are then able to force china to surrender, they will fight Russia along the Mongolian border as well as on the western front.

3) China will condemn the attacks, India will support Russia, they will take Ukraine - NATO troops will be sent to neighbouring countries to stop expansion and Russia will continue with sanctions for the next few years. The idea of war will fizzle out.


Domestically the US don't yet have support for a war on foreign lands so the threat of them entering prematurely is quite low. Also despite common thought the US generally enters wars late (WW1&2)

Honestly, Poland would absolutely and unequivocally feed it to Russia.... hell if Ukraine can grind them into the mud with old soviet tech, Mlaws and Javelins , the French have tech that would entirely bend the Russians over themselves.

Putin attacked the reactors to display his willing, his lack of fortitude and standing down shows it was but a display to improve his hand at the negotiation table. He needs to save face, and in a hurry. To get out of Ukraine, he will need more territory, and from what I can tell, the world playing proxy in this theatre, they are hell bent on sending him home with his tail between his legs. More underpowered than Superpower.

China, where do we start... communist workforce, playing capitalist games on the world stage. Lacks the innovation to bring progress to the market, currently playing the part of lowly replicator of poor quality goods. They only want Taiwan for the advanced semi-conductor tech, they see automation coming, they need an advantage. Forget the Imperialist spiel, this is about emerging markets, and trying to lock down technical capabilities to take the next step. Spent the last few decades eroding the international manufacturing sector with cheap and thus replaceable parts.... They yearn to be the Japan, South Korea, respected with industry, the steelworks of Japan, the Hyundais and Samsungs of South Korea.... Tell me the great car tech out of the brain child of 1Bn people, or the Chinese equivalent of Samsung? (Great Wall? HTC? both cloning tech and falling behind in quality, already gapped). Russia initially flexing China was balls deep backing them, world cripples their economy with a vote, Jinping denounces immediately. Best way to pay back international debt is in a dollar that depreciates 10 fold overnight. China holds alot of International debt.

Russia was due, China was warned...

Doesnt take much of a thug to pull a gun on someone and demand their purse... takes a different monster altogether to pop off if she refuses to hand it over.
 
1. Putin will be killed/arrested/taken down internally
2. Putin will be successful in taking Ukraine and start a 10-20 year internal guerilla war a la Chechnya.
3. Putin will be successful in taking Ukraine, will invade Moldova and make a half arse strike against a weak NATO nation to test the waters.

4. Europe backs off, like their handlers in the states
 
But its only your opinion that its rubbish....you have done what you think is your research and I have done mine...lets see what transpires...

I will say it again,none of us are in the Ukraine and I dont care what the MSM tell us or people who know someone in Ukraine that posted whatever...sometimes the wrong people get the blame for things that they dont do....
Is funny a small group considers others sheeple. I have watched someone I know go from peddling anti vax conspiracy nonsense to now peddling the same there is no war shit.

Once you go down that rabbit hole, you are gone. Everything you see that agrees with your view is the truth, anything that contradicts is false news.
 
Wonder whether any of the anti-Putin forces would consider taking him out. It would be extremely difficult but not impossible. Of course there's no guarantee it would change anything but it can't really get any worse.
 
Wonder whether any of the anti-Putin forces would consider taking him out. It would be extremely difficult but not impossible. Of course there's no guarantee it would change anything but it can't really get any worse.
Some billionaire allegedly put a 1m price on his head.
 
Wonder whether any of the anti-Putin forces would consider taking him out. It would be extremely difficult but not impossible. Of course there's no guarantee it would change anything but it can't really get any worse.
As you would probably agree, while this can be a theoretical possibility, any real, strong opposition to the current regime is impossible.
The army, police, FSB/SVR (KGB successors), MM, and rhetoric are all controlled by the oligarchs, as there cannot be any real opposition to them, no opposition to Putin!
 
As you would probably agree, while this can be a theoretical possibility, any real, strong opposition to the current regime is impossible.
The army, police, FSB/SVR (KGB successors), MM, and rhetoric are all controlled by the oligarchs, as there cannot be any real opposition to them, no opposition to Putin!
I think it's more than theoretically possible but the degree of difficulty is enormous. Claus von Stauffenberg would have blown Hitler up if it wasn't for the leg of a table. The SEALS got Osama. Anything is possible . Promise a well-connected Russian general $100m and who knows.
 
I think it's more than theoretically possible but the degree of difficulty is enormous. Claus von Stauffenberg would have blown Hitler up if it wasn't for the leg of a table. The SEALS got Osama. Anything is possible . Promise a well-connected Russian general $100m and who knows.
While bribing a top general may be possible, followed by bombing of Kremlin, it would not change much.
A better analogy than Stauffenberg attempt, is removing of bin Laden, it did not stop DAESH, or wahabism
 
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4. Europe backs off, like their handlers in the states

Yeah I dont know. Poland and Germany to date have been very forthright and very brave. If push comes to shove, self protection is a pretty powerful motivator. If Putin succeeds in taking Ukraine, Moldove is gone and Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary are in deep trouble.
 
As you would probably agree, while this can be a theoretical possibility, any real, strong opposition to the current regime is impossible.
The army, police, FSB/SVR (KGB successors), MM, and rhetoric are all controlled by the oligarchs, as there cannot be any real opposition to them, no opposition to Putin!
and what if the oligarchs get sick of having their freedom and wealth frozen from them for the sake of Putins folly?
 
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With respect Bob (genuinely) I think this is rubbish. The 600,000 barrels that the US imports is 10% of US consumption (according to the White House). If this was cut off it would result in increased fuel prices, no question but not beyond what could be accommodated. People need to understand that we can either pay at the petrol pump or with blood, choose your preferred payment method.

The reason that the US are not cutting off Russian oil is because Biden is currently at about 30% approval rating. US inflation is at a 40 year high. Increases in fuel prices would exacerbate this. There are Congressional elections this year and the Democrats look like taking a bath. The decision to not cut the oil from Russia is 100% political and designed to keep power in the US.

Germany, who have spent the last 73years apologising and being completely militarily and economically benign have completely cut of Russian oil and gas and as a result energy prices in Germany have risen 100% this month. More important than money, Ive spent a winter in Germany & Hungary. You would freeze to death without Russian gas feeding the heater in each room. More power and respect to the German govt and people.



IMO none of those three things happen. The US will NOT place troops in Ukraine and will not engage Russia militarily unless they strike NATO. The idea that China would surrender to India is ....(trying to find a more respectful word than laughable).

IMO one of these three things will happen...

1. Putin will be killed/arrested/taken down internally
2. Putin will be successful in taking Ukraine and start a 10-20 year internal guerilla war a la Chechnya.
3. Putin will be successful in taking Ukraine, will invade Moldova and make a half arse strike against a weak NATO nation to test the waters.

Unfortunately 2 or 3 are much more likely than 1.


Agree with you here. No way US engages Russia militarily unless NATO is invoked. Currently 90,000 US troops in Europe.
Good chat…

You are probably correct about the percentage of fuel USA gets from Russia, but the point in context was that they aren't doing because they are trying to look the other way. Even if the only outcome is reducing inflation, most wars are lost because they become unfavourably domestically. The Vietnam war the classic example.

The other point which I didn't point out clearly was not that India would defeat china, that is laughable. I was trying to point out that I didn't think that the US would put troops into Ukraine ever as it would force India, China and Russia to become allies. Naturally India and China are very opposed and quite often have clashes along their border. I will admit that my scenarios didn't explain that well upon reading it again.

The scenario I was outlaying was trying to show, as we can see from history, that fighting on multiple fronts is highly detrimental. Your comment regarding India defeating China being laughable I think is cherry picking a bit as quite clearly I was explaining that with India opposing the Chinese they would have to battle both on the border between India AND on the pacific with the allied forces.

There was another reply to my post that spoke about the only reason China wants to invade Taiwan is for their microchip industry. Although it is significant it is also geographically important. Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Phillipines restricts Chinas access to the Pacific without being detected. If they were to recapture Taiwan they could send submarines directly out from the island totally undetected. I lived in Taiwan for 5 years and the ex military and locals have the absolute belief, that this reason alone will ensure the US come to their defence.
 
It actually should give cause for EU to get involved. Send them in to guard the nuke plants.
I would like to share your optimism re EU, NATO or probably even the UN, however, all of them are tootless tigers without the US!
As was shown in number of occasions, for instance, the last one in Europe (e.g. Srebrenica)
 
Good chat…

Agreed, you make good points in good faith.
You are probably correct about the percentage of fuel USA gets from Russia, but the point in context was that they aren't doing because they are trying to look the other way. Even if the only outcome is reducing inflation, most wars are lost because they become unfavourably domestically. The Vietnam war the classic example.
I get your point but in my opinion it is because the current administration is on a weak footing domestically that they are weak on foreign policy which obviously will have global repercussions. IMO the US public is smarter than that and would rather pay at the fuel pump or grocery store than in blood in eastern europe.

IMO the Vietnam War is a weak example as it was a war that the US people opposed on a moral POV. I think vietnam has closer relevance to Russia than the US.

The other point which I didn't point out clearly was not that India would defeat china, that is laughable. I was trying to point out that I didn't think that the US would put troops into Ukraine ever as it would force India, China and Russia to become allies. Naturally India and China are very opposed and quite often have clashes along their border. I will admit that my scenarios didn't explain that well upon reading it again.

Understood

The scenario I was outlaying was trying to show, as we can see from history, that fighting on multiple fronts is highly detrimental. Your comment regarding India defeating China being laughable I think is cherry picking a bit as quite clearly I was explaining that with India opposing the Chinese they would have to battle both on the border between India AND on the pacific with the allied forces.

Understood, lets hope it never gets to that stage.
There was another reply to my post that spoke about the only reason China wants to invade Taiwan is for their microchip industry. Although it is significant it is also geographically important. Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Phillipines restricts Chinas access to the Pacific without being detected. If they were to recapture Taiwan they could send submarines directly out from the island totally undetected. I lived in Taiwan for 5 years and the ex military and locals have the absolute belief, that this reason alone will ensure the US come to their defence.

Good points, but I'd another parallel to Ukraine in that there is a domestic belief within China that Taiwan is historically part of China and they have not really ever given it up. Beside the obvious resource and geographical motives, I think there is a deep felt historical, ideologial motive to fix Taiwan from the days of Chang Kai-Shek.
 
Good chat…

You are probably correct about the percentage of fuel USA gets from Russia, but the point in context was that they aren't doing because they are trying to look the other way. Even if the only outcome is reducing inflation, most wars are lost because they become unfavourably domestically. The Vietnam war the classic example.

The other point which I didn't point out clearly was not that India would defeat china, that is laughable. I was trying to point out that I didn't think that the US would put troops into Ukraine ever as it would force India, China and Russia to become allies. Naturally India and China are very opposed and quite often have clashes along their border. I will admit that my scenarios didn't explain that well upon reading it again.

The scenario I was outlaying was trying to show, as we can see from history, that fighting on multiple fronts is highly detrimental. Your comment regarding India defeating China being laughable I think is cherry picking a bit as quite clearly I was explaining that with India opposing the Chinese they would have to battle both on the border between India AND on the pacific with the allied forces.

There was another reply to my post that spoke about the only reason China wants to invade Taiwan is for their microchip industry. Although it is significant it is also geographically important. Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Phillipines restricts Chinas access to the Pacific without being detected. If they were to recapture Taiwan they could send submarines directly out from the island totally undetected. I lived in Taiwan for 5 years and the ex military and locals have the absolute belief, that this reason alone will ensure the US come to their defence.
bob, a balanced and confederated response. interested to hear your thoughts on how long Putin can last, not sure the west beats them with sanctions. china obviously looking on.

Taiwan semi strategically important. Ukraine Nukes even more so
 
Good chat…

You are probably correct about the percentage of fuel USA gets from Russia, but the point in context was that they aren't doing because they are trying to look the other way. Even if the only outcome is reducing inflation, most wars are lost because they become unfavourably domestically. The Vietnam war the classic example.

The other point which I didn't point out clearly was not that India would defeat china, that is laughable. I was trying to point out that I didn't think that the US would put troops into Ukraine ever as it would force India, China and Russia to become allies. Naturally India and China are very opposed and quite often have clashes along their border. I will admit that my scenarios didn't explain that well upon reading it again.

The scenario I was outlaying was trying to show, as we can see from history, that fighting on multiple fronts is highly detrimental. Your comment regarding India defeating China being laughable I think is cherry picking a bit as quite clearly I was explaining that with India opposing the Chinese they would have to battle both on the border between India AND on the pacific with the allied forces.

There was another reply to my post that spoke about the only reason China wants to invade Taiwan is for their microchip industry. Although it is significant it is also geographically important. Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Phillipines restricts Chinas access to the Pacific without being detected. If they were to recapture Taiwan they could send submarines directly out from the island totally undetected. I lived in Taiwan for 5 years and the ex military and locals have the absolute belief, that this reason alone will ensure the US come to their defence.
Im going to let 5150 and others take me apart here again with their knowledge..
Why do you think that the USA,China.India,Japan dont want a bar of the conflict in Ukraine atm...
Because they are all a part of an Alliance for freedom world wide...Nato is scum and you will soon find out that they have caused more damage since inception than you are led to believe...
In Ukraine atm the' right sector'and the neo nazis are the ones causing the drama that is foreseen on the MSM...they have been causing crap since Zelinsky was put in place through the Soros group...
Dont be surprised if the 2014 election in Ukraine is found to be a false victory ...the people of Ukraine were robbed of an honest election...Zelinsky isnt the hero everybody makes him out to be,,,cheers...
 
Yeah I dont know. Poland and Germany to date have been very forthright and very brave. If push comes to shove, self protection is a pretty powerful motivator. If Putin succeeds in taking Ukraine, Moldove is gone and Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary are in deep trouble.

Agreed, you make good points in good faith.

I get your point but in my opinion it is because the current administration is on a weak footing domestically that they are weak on foreign policy which obviously will have global repercussions. IMO the US public is smarter than that and would rather pay at the fuel pump or grocery store than in blood in eastern europe.

IMO the Vietnam War is a weak example as it was a war that the US people opposed on a moral POV. I think vietnam has closer relevance to Russia than the US.



Understood



Understood, lets hope it never gets to that stage.


Good points, but I'd another parallel to Ukraine in that there is a domestic belief within China that Taiwan is historically part of China and they have not really ever given it up. Beside the obvious resource and geographical motives, I think there is a deep felt historical, ideologial motive to fix Taiwan from the days of Chang Kai-Shek.
Agreed, you make good points in good faith.

I get your point but in my opinion it is because the current administration is on a weak footing domestically that they are weak on foreign policy which obviously will have global repercussions. IMO the US public is smarter than that and would rather pay at the fuel pump or grocery store than in blood in eastern europe.

IMO the Vietnam War is a weak example as it was a war that the US people opposed on a moral POV. I think vietnam has closer relevance to Russia than the US.



Understood



Understood, lets hope it never gets to that stage.


Good points, but I'd another parallel to Ukraine in that there is a domestic belief within China that Taiwan is historically part of China and they have not really ever given it up. Beside the obvious resource and geographical motives, I think there is a deep felt historical, ideologial motive to fix Taiwan from the days of Chang Kai-Shek.

You draw some daft parallels for an educated man such as yourself. If you want war just say so .. enough cheerleading😆😆
 
Im going to let 5150 and others take me apart here again with their knowledge..
Why do you think that the USA,China.India,Japan dont want a bar of the conflict in Ukraine atm...
Because they are all a part of an Alliance for freedom world wide...Nato is scum and you will soon find out that they have caused more damage since inception than you are led to believe...
In Ukraine atm the' right sector'and the neo nazis are the ones causing the drama that is foreseen on the MSM...they have been causing crap since Zelinsky was put in place through the Soros group...
Dont be surprised if the 2014 election in Ukraine is found to be a false victory ...the people of Ukraine were robbed of an honest election...Zelinsky isnt the hero everybody makes him out to be,,,cheers...
This is the deepest conspiracy there ever was. Every week it gets deeper and deeper. I am starting to think I may be involved and haven’t realised it yet.
 
bob, a balanced and confederated response. interested to hear your thoughts on how long Putin can last, not sure the west beats them with sanctions. china obviously looking on.

Taiwan semi strategically important. Ukraine Nukes even more so
Unfortunately I agree, I don't think the sanctions will do much. Putin has planned the attack and will be very conscious of his safety, I doubt he is touchable in the short term.

The fall of Ukraine although they have put up a much greater resistance than anybody thought will happen. I don't think any country will answer their calls.

I think its very much a game of who will flinch after that, @Tiger5150 alluded to Putin further testing the resolve of the US by aggressive manoeuvring onto a NATO country. I agree, we just picked different countries. I'll concede I don't know the are that well politically just thinking geographically. Will the Chinese make a move? I am not sure, they seem to be posturing a lot recently and now is probably the time to take it by force as they have stated they would. I don't think that is as probable as some. The US have agreements with both NATO countries and Taiwan under different conventions, so both of those scenarios should trigger a response, I don't think the US would ignore those commitments. A lot more questions than answers at the moment.

Two things that I would like to add;
There are parallels between Ukraine and Taiwan, I would argue that the Chinese never occupied Taiwan until Kai Shek fled to the island so don't actually have any historic link. But again that's only because I lived there and my ex colleagues are all Taiwanese so I am very biased.

and secondly, I find it very interesting that the narrative was that China and Russia had colluded not to invade until after the olympics at China's request. However China did not evacuate the embassy until after the invasion began...
 

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