The J(uro) Curve

[Juro]

What is a curve without a curve?


 

[happy_tiger]

I'm having some IT problems today, so no graph just yet. The numbers are what's important though, right? Unfortunately, the numbers took a bit of a battering with the loss to the Storm.

Key results:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership (Sharks are 47%, Storm are 40%. We are out of the running, along with Souths and the 4 other teams to reach 0.00%)
- 1% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sharks are 97%, Storm are 95%, 2 teams are 0.00%)
- 19% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sharks are 99.99%, Storm are 99.98%, Knights are first to reach 0.00%)
- 24% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 98%, Cowboys join the 2 teams on 0.00%)
- 0.4% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 64%, 5 teams are 0.00%)

After 16 rounds, our average chance of making the top 8 over all our seasons since 2000 was 38%. 2016 ranks as our 12th best (or 6th worst) season to this point. We have never come back from below 20% to make the finals.

I can't imagine many sides have comeback from Rd 16 with a 19% Top 8 chance

As I said I'll be happy if mathematically come Rd 26 we are still a chance , but I'n not holding my breath

 

[Juro]

I'm having some IT problems today, so no graph just yet. The numbers are what's important though, right? Unfortunately, the numbers took a bit of a battering with the loss to the Storm.

Key results:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership (Sharks are 47%, Storm are 40%. We are out of the running, along with Souths and the 4 other teams to reach 0.00%)
- 1% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sharks are 97%, Storm are 95%, 2 teams are 0.00%)
- 19% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sharks are 99.99%, Storm are 99.98%, Knights are first to reach 0.00%)
- 24% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 98%, Cowboys join the 2 teams on 0.00%)
- 0.4% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 64%, 5 teams are 0.00%)

After 16 rounds, our average chance of making the top 8 over all our seasons since 2000 was 38%. 2016 ranks as our 12th best (or 6th worst) season to this point. We have never come back from below 20% to make the finals.

I can't imagine many sides have comeback from Rd 16 with a 19% Top 8 chance

As I said I'll be happy if mathematically come Rd 26 we are still a chance , but I'n not holding my breath

That's a very good point. Most teams to make the finals are already in a strong position come Round 16\. Out of all the teams that went on to play finals football from 2000 to 2015, here are the biggest comebacks:
- Eels 2006 = 5%. They were sitting second last on 12 points (4 wins, 10 losses, 2 byes). From there, they won 8 games in a row, then lost their last 2, scraping into 8th place.
- Raiders 2012 = 9%. Sitting in 13th place on 14 points (5 wins, 9 losses, 2 byes), went on to finish 6th with 8 more wins (including a 5 win streak) and 2 losses.
- Warriors 2008 = 11%. Sitting in 13th place on 14 points (6 wins, 9 losses, 1 bye), went on to finish 8th with 7 more wins (including a 4 win streak) and 2 losses.
- Raiders 2010 = 15%. Were in 12th place on 14 points (5 wins, 9 losses, 2 byes), finished 8th with 8 more wins (including a 5 win streak) and 2 losses.
- Raiders 2002 = 18%. Were in 12th place on 13 points (5 wins, 1 draw, 9 losses, 1 bye), then finished 8th with 5 more wins and 4 losses. Note that Canterbury got stripped of their points in Round 23 of that season. Canberra only won 10 of 24 games.
- Eels 2009 = 18%. Were in 12th place on 15 points (5 wins, 1 draw, 8 losses, 2 byes), then finished 8th with 7 more wins (in a row) and 3 losses. Of course, we finished 9th that year.

In short, it is definitely possible. However, it helps if you are the Eels or Raiders…

 

[Juro]

A win sees us jump clear of the bottom 4, but if we can't start stringing wins together, our chances of making the finals will zigzag to zero.


Key results:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership (Sharks are 46%, Storm are 45%. The Dragons, Panthers and Titans become teams 7-9 to reach 0.00%)
- 1% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sharks and Storm are 98%, Eels, Roosters and Knights are 0.00%)
- 29% chance of finishing in top 8 (Storm are 100.00%, Sharks are 99.99%, Knights are 0.00%)
- 12% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 99%, 3 teams are on 0.00%)
- 0.04% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 70%, Dragons, Raiders and Warriors join 5 teams on 0.00%)

After 17 rounds, our average chance of making the top 8 over all our seasons since 2000 was 37%. 2016 ranks as our 10th best (or 8th worst) season to this point. We have never come back from below 20% to make the finals.

 

[Gary_Bakerloo]

After 17 rounds, our average chance of making the top 8 over all our seasons since 2000 was 37%. 2016 ranks as our 10th best (or 8th worst) season to this point. We have never come back from below 20% to make the finals.

What were we in round 18 in 2011? Just asking because if we win this weekend, we are on the exact same number of points as 2011.

 

[Juro]

After 17 rounds, our average chance of making the top 8 over all our seasons since 2000 was 37%. 2016 ranks as our 10th best (or 8th worst) season to this point. We have never come back from below 20% to make the finals.

What were we in round 18 in 2011? Just asking because if we win this weekend, we are on the exact same number of points as 2011.

Here is the graph of 2016 vs the years we made the finals.


In 2011 we were 38% after 18 rounds. I note that we were on 18 points, from 7 wins, 2 byes and 9 losses.

If we manage to beat the Bulldogs next week, we will be on 18 points, from 8 wins, 1 bye and 9 losses. That would be an even better situation, since the bye is like a guaranteed win. However, other factors come into play in determining the results of my model (ie how well placed all the other teams are around us).

 

[ricksen]

Our F/A was -12 and we were 9th in 2011\. Plus we had a team that was a proven top four commodity after the near miss of 2010.
If we win this week, our F/A will still be -60 or so (currently -77) and we're a young team that hasn't made the finals in 5 years.

Different kettles of fish.

 

[Juro]

Another good effort by the team, but without the result, our chances dip again. If we are going to do anything this year, our run needs to start now! (or at least after the bye…)


Key results:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership (Sharks are 58%, Storm are 38%. The Warriors become team 10 to reach 0.00%)
- 0.2% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sharks are 99%, Storm are 98%, Manly are the 4th team to reach 0.00%)
- 18% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sharks and Storm are 100.00%, Knights are 0.00%)
- 19% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 99%, Bulldogs join 3 teams on 0.00%)
- 0.07% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 71%, 8 teams are on 0.00%)

We can still finish anywhere from 3rd to 16th.

After 18 rounds, our average chance of making the top 8 over all our seasons since 2000 was 33%. 2016 ranks as our 11th best (or 7th worst) season to this point.

 

[happy_tiger]

Yeah when you look at the table though , even after the lose things aren't as bad as you would of thought they'd be

That For and Against hangs over our heads like an Albatross , I get this awful feeling it could be crucial if we can't get it to at least -20 by season's end

 

[Juro]

We're currently -87\. If we win 5 out of our remaining 7 games, and each win or loss is 10, our F/A will only improve by 30.

If we won 5 games by 20, but lost 2 games by 10, our F/A would improve to -7.

That's a tough ask!

 

[Juro]

Despite the bye, other results have a baring on our chances. And while our chances of making the top 8 remained on 18%, other numbers did change.


Key results:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership (Sharks are 59%, Storm are 39%. 10 teams are on 0.00%)
- 0.2% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sharks are 99.9%, Storm are 99%, 4 teams are on 0.00%)
- 18% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sharks and Storm are 100.00%, Roosters are the 2nd team to reach 0.00%)
- 15% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 99.9%, Broncos and Raiders join 4 teams on 0.00%)
- 0.02% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 74%, Panthers and Titans join 8 teams on 0.00%)

We can still finish anywhere from 3rd to 16th.

After 19 rounds, our average chance of making the top 8 over all our seasons since 2000 was 35%. 2016 ranks as our 11th best (or 7th worst) season to this point.

 

[ryanda01]

Chance of finishing in top 8; Roosters are the 2nd team to reach 0.00%

Whilst we have an 18% chance of making the 8, its this quote that pleases me the most.

 

[Regan]

All the hours you have put into these graphs I would like to say thank you for your work

 

[Kavi]

All the hours you have put into these graphs I would like to say thank you for your work

i second that

 

[Juro]

All the hours you have put into these graphs I would like to say thank you for your work

i second that

Thanks for your support. I do this for my own enjoyment, but having others appreciate it makes it even more enjoyable.

 

[mike]

All the hours you have put into these graphs I would like to say thank you for your work

i second that

Thanks for your support. I do this for my own enjoyment, but having others appreciate it makes it even more enjoyable.

I third it. Makes for very interesting reading and what ifs…Always enjoy the analysis.Thanks again.

 

[coolcat]

I look forward to this every week

 

[ryanda01]

All the hours you have put into these graphs I would like to say thank you for your work

i second that

Thanks for your support. I do this for my own enjoyment, but having others appreciate it makes it even more enjoyable.

And after the win today and the only other game to play is teams bearing no impact to the Top 8 huddle, I assume we are over the 20% mark for possible top 8.

No need for the graph this week; I'm closing my eyes and picturing beautiful models. These ones have real curves.

 

[Kavi]

i would say the drags are virtually no chance of making the 8\. we need to win at least 2/3 vs titans,panthers, warriors

 

[Juro]

Yay, we won, but it only had a marginal impact on our chances of making the finals. Despite being 10th (equal 9th even) and only 2 points behind 8th, we are still only a 24% chance of playing in the semis.

The problem, as we all know, is our F/A (-74). Yes, we are only 2 points behind 8th, but we need to effectively make up 2 games in 6 rounds to catch up. If our F/A was 0 (we had scored 99 points on Sunday), we would now be 35% of playing in the semis. Will games like Canberra come back to bite us?


Key results:
- 0.00% chance of minor premiership (Sharks are 62%, Storm are 37%. Cowboys are 0.7%, Raiders are 0.1%, and the Broncos are the 11th team to reach 0.00%)
- 0.3% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sharks are the first team to reach 100.00%, Storm are 99.8%, and Manly are the 5th team to reach 0.00%)
- 18% chance of finishing in top 8 (2 teams are 100.00% and 2 teams are 0.00%)
- 6% chance of finishing in bottom 4 (Knights are 99.99%, Roosters are 99%, and 6 teams are 0.00%)
- 0.00% chance of wooden spoon (Knights are 77%, Roosters are 18%, and we join 10 other teams on 0.00%)

We can still finish anywhere from 3rd to 15th.

After 20 rounds, our average chance of making the top 8 over all our seasons since 2000 was 32%. 2016 ranks as our 9th best (or 9th worst) season to this point. We overtook 2004 and 2008 this round.

As stated above, we are now no chance of picking up the spoon. Other years we have reached this earlier are:
2005: Round 18
2006: Round 16
2010: Round 7 (thanks to the Storm)