Coronavirus Outbreak

[happy_tiger]

Just looking at this graph from health.gov.au and the thing that stands out for me is that unlike the other states and territories, NSW has less than half of cases as overseas aquired and the difference is quite stark.


Finally the Blues winning something

 

[Tiger5150]

Just looking at this graph from health.gov.au and the thing that stands out for me is that unlike the other states and territories, NSW has less than half of cases as overseas aquired and the difference is quite stark.


NSW is the most populous state, is the usual hub for travel into the country and most significantly has the most liberal rules with regards to testing (its easier to get a test in NSW) and have tested more people.

Plus there is a 134 people on that NSW from the damn Ruby Princess!

 

[tigerbalm]

Not picking on you here Jay, just using your post as an indicative post of those praising Jacinda’s methods relative to Australia.

In some respects it's becoming a popularity contest, and that is pointless right now. As is the nitpicky criticism of the Prime Minister - I'm not even a Liberal voter but you just have to let the guy get on with his job. PM has a team of experts giving him advice, and I don't believe (I can't say for sure) that he is doing anything against the majority advice he is receiving. So you might be wanting to waggle a finger at the PM, but he's just relaying the advice of his council of medical, epidemiology and economy experts, and not every country's experts agree.

Giving Jacinda a thumbs up is a really easy thing to do from a distance, I assume most of us not living in or having ever lived in New Zealand under her stewardship, and she has a certain benign cult of personality, which she fairly earned, which gives her more shine as a leader than perhaps she actually deserves as a policy-maker.

I'm not a fan of the approach that has been taken with schools and day cares in NSW. Leaving them open but suggesting to parents that they not send their kids is a weak and unfair approach. First, it's an indecisive position to take at a time when parents are looking for certainty in leadership. Secondly, it puts unfair moral pressure on parents to keep their kids at home while they still have to wear the economic consequences (like continuing to pay day care fees).



I keep seeing this same comment over and over again and I really think people are missing the point. I'm sure he would have loved to have just shut the country down and let this all pass and press play on the economy in 3 months. That's not how it works. At this stage he's mitigating risk to not only the health of Australia but the Australia that will be left once this passes. None of this is ideal but to just hammer him on the school closure decision is naive.


For what its worth, not a scomo fan before this but coming around. If he can steer the country through this and avoid a complete economic meltdown while still keeping the inevitable death rate at a low % Ill be forever grateful.

1. I did not say anything about Morrison. I did not hammer him. It was more a criticism of NSW State government given Gladys was the one who suggested parents not send their kids.
2. I did not say that keeping the schools open was the wrong call, I criticised the hedged approach that was taken. Open them or close them depending upon the health advice with some regard to the economic consequences - fine. But don't hedge. Be decisive. Lead.

Digest people's statements a bit more before claiming they're "missing the point" or "naive".

Fair play, I misinterpreted your point.

 

[Tim Sheens]

Just looking at this graph from health.gov.au and the thing that stands out for me is that unlike the other states and territories, NSW has less than half of cases as overseas aquired and the difference is quite stark.



NSW is the most populous state, is the usual hub for travel into the country and most significantly has the most liberal rules with regards to testing (its easier to get a test in NSW) and have tested more people.

Plus there is a 134 people on that NSW from the damn Ruby Princess!

I thought that those 134 are spread over their home states and territories, no?

 

[Tiger5150]

Im nervous about this shutdown working. As Ive bored everyone with already, I have been tracking the confirmed cases mathematically since 10/03/20. It has been growing exponentially at a terrifyingly steady rate.

Exponential simply means that each data set is growing by a multiple on the last one. When I started tracking it was growing at an exponential multiplier of 1.23. Since then the multiplier has barely moved and totals I forecast over a week ago are accurate each day +/- 10 or so. Its scary to me how constant the rate of growth is.

Here is the table of the confirmed cases


OVer the last week the multiplier for each day has been 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26 today. It just doesnt change.

To give you an idea of how critical this multiplier number is, when I started the forecast on the 10th Mar , the forecast total for 10 April was 77, 326. If it continues at todays multiplier of 1.26, the total on 10 April will be 119,149. If we can keep it at 1.2 it would drop to 48,000. It makes a massive difference, but so far it wont budge.

Here is a graph of the multiplier

We need that line to dip below 1.0 urgently but so far no sign of it. Lets hope in a week or so these new arrangements start to filter through to this data. AS a reference, Italy is growing exponentially with a multiplier of 1.1 yesterday, UK the same, Germany 1.11. At Italy & UK's rate (admittedly only measured over 24hrs) our total for 10 April drops to 10950.

A glimmer of hope?

I posted the above two days ago. As I stated then, I was worried because the exponential multiplier, the engine of the exponential growth was frighteningly steady and consistent. It simply wont budge and marches on relentlessly. In the post above I noted multipliers of 1.20, 1.25, 1.25, 1.23, 1.25, 1.23 and 1.26. Yesterday to complete the series it was 1.25, again...relentlessly consistent.

Today there is a possible weakening. The exponential multiplier for today was 1.13. I have been waiting for some sign that the curve might flatten and today is the first glimmer of hope. As a lifelong Balmain & Wests Tigers fan I am conditioned to expect that tomorrow everything will collapse and turn to crap, but its a ray of light.

To give an indication of how significant it is....if we continue at yesterdays rate of 1.25, in two weeks on 08.04.20, the cases will be 49996. DoH have nominated 43000 as the point that our ICU beds go under. If the rate is reduced to 1.23, then the cases on the same day would be 40538. If we are somehow able to keep it at todays rate of 1.13 it would be 13462. A MASSIVE difference in every way.

As I say, I am a natural sceptic and its probable that today is just a blip and we will march on at our usual rate which averages out at 1.23, but there is some hope. It takes 3=5 days for symptoms to develop, it has been 3 days since the big clampdown. Maybe...just maybe things are starting to turn/

Time will tell.

Anyway if anyone cares here is the confirmed cases graph, note the curve flattening today.

Here is the graph of the exponential multiplier, again note the dip today. If it gets to 1, its over.


 

[weststigers]

Prince Charles, the heir to the British throne, has tested positive for the coronavirus, the royal family said in a statement.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52033845

 

[dazza65]

well according to the latest stats he has a 5% of dying unfortunately - if he was here 0.3% - damn colonials....

 

[Tiger5150]

well according to the latest stats he has a 5% of dying unfortunately - if he was here 0.3% - damn colonials....

He is no spring chicken, I'd say his odds are worse than that. Hope he stays away from his Mum for a while.

 

[happy_tiger]

Prince Charles, the heir to the British throne, has tested positive for the coronavirus, the royal family said in a statement.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52033845

One kiss from horsehead Camilla will kill any bugs ...probably take Charles out as well though

 

[jadtiger]

If anyone is the slightest bit interested about the virus effects in the USA i suggest reading an article by Nick Bryant on the BBC website.I have no idea how to link it so you will have to read it yourself.
It is very thought provoking and examines current american society and attitudes and the massive divides in society.
Well worth a read

 

[weststigers]

If anyone is the slightest bit interested about the virus effects in the USA i suggest reading an article by Nick Bryant on the BBC website.I have no idea how to link it so you will have to read it yourself.
It is very thought provoking and examines current american society and attitudes and the massive divides in society.
Well worth a read

To link just copy/paste the link into your post

 

[clokan]

I'm assuming it's this one https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52012049

 

[jadtiger]

If anyone is the slightest bit interested about the virus effects in the USA i suggest reading an article by Nick Bryant on the BBC website.I have no idea how to link it so you will have to read it yourself.
It is very thought provoking and examines current american society and attitudes and the massive divides in society.
Well worth a read

To link just copy/paste the link into your post

That is beyond my computer skills unfortunately

 

[jadtiger]

I'm assuming it's this one https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52012049

Yes that is the article.I found it a very good read.Thank you for linking it for me

 

[Strider]

I guess my compliments of nations doing lockdown, is it seems there is science that's most effective. I don't think or care about the economy as much as others, but I acknowledge people need to. That's why Scott isn't calling a lockdown yet. It's money. For me I'm happy to let capitalism as we know it die and reborn lol I don't really care. A better system could start. But I acknowledge many people want our economy not to be in recession not depression to the extent we risk further spread.

I do believe will do a lockdown. But maybe when it hits 5000 confirmed cases. We are around 2.5k currently so lets see next week if it hits 5k. I'm predicting it will in less than a week

 

[weststigers]

I guess my compliments of nations doing lockdown, is it seems there is science that's most effective. I don't think or care about the economy as much as others, but I acknowledge people need to. That's why Scott isn't calling a lockdown yet. It's money. For me I'm happy to let capitalism as we know it die and reborn lol I don't really care. A better system could start. But I acknowledge many people want our economy not to be in recession not depression to the extent we risk further spread.

I do believe will do a lockdown. But maybe when it hits 5000 confirmed cases. We are around 2.5k currently so lets see next week if it hits 5k. I'm predicting it will in less than a week

Thanks for that Comrade

 

[Strider]

Hahaha. Well not die. But adjust.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/its-modern-monetary-theory-time-as-the-state-steps-in/news-story/ab070170b6b70ad4dd1fb4319ae1947a?fbclid=IwAR2v_SMdoC3bvtQQ8RxAQbFrWGCGbgmAMpt77t-O6EfIYbBYPn11INgoSF4

 

[Geo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jewyR3kxdI0&fbclid=IwAR0Zm8CgtSo7iOXSFj8Pakl0PQsb8jp0j3Wta7da_WD2daPp_qjyAneRiF0&app=desktop

Gold..

 

[hobbo1]


 

[trentrunciman]

Even my cousin is confined to his cell in prison. Meals getting dropped off at his cell. Tough times.