The J(uro) Curve

[Juro]

Okay, back online (well, almost). I've got the last 5 years rerun for the graph, but years 2000-09 still need to be done. There are a few changes to the way the model works, but it is still on the same principles. You may note some % numbers have changed, but hopefully not by too much.

After 15 rounds, we're sitting on the knife's edge, with 50% of making the top 8\. This is despite winning more than we have lost, highlighting the likelihood of needing more than 28 points to make the finals this year.


Key results:
- 2% chance of minor premiership (Sea Eagles are 21%, Panthers are 20% and Souths are 16%. Raiders are the 3rd team to reach 0%.)
- 16% chance of finishing in top 4 (Knights and Sharks are now 0%)
- 50% chance of finishing in top 8
- 0.2% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 51%, Knights are 28%, Raiders are 16%. Bulldogs, Panthers, Roosters, Sea Eagles and Souths are all 0%)

This time last year, we were 0% chance of coming 1st, 0.5% chance of top 4, 9% chance of top 8 and 14% chance of getting the spoon. Based on the old model, these numbers were 0%, 0.6%, 9% and 14% respectively (almost exactly the same).

 

[Spartan117]

I love this thread, Nerdy.

 

[Juro]

What a whacky round that was. Teams ranked 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 8th all lost. The only top 8 team to win was the Sea Eagles (1st), while the Bulldogs (5th) had the bye.


Key results:
- 4% chance of minor premiership (Sea Eagles are 34%, Panthers are 15%, Bulldogs are 14% and Souths are 13%. 3 teams are 0%.)
- 25% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sea Eagles are 76%, 2 teams are 0%)
- 61% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sea Eagles are 95%, Sharks are 0.4%)
- 0.1% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 46%, Raiders are 27%, Knights are 23%. 5 teams are 0%)

 

[Juro]

I've been working on a new graph, showing the expected cut-off for making the finals. The graph shows the average projected points for the 9th place team as the season progresses. So far I have only run it for this year and last year, but as the graph shows, these two years are markedly different.


At the moment, these are the chances of 9th place finishing on the following scores:

- 26: 10%
- 28: 72%
- 30: 18%

At the same point last year, the chances were:

- 24: 0.7%
- 25: 0.3%
- 26: 42%
- 27: 8%
- 28: 47%
- 29: 1%
- 30: 1%

It ended up that 9th (the Titans) finished on 26 points last year. It certainly looks like it will be 28 this year, possibly even higher!

 

[happy_tiger]

Yeah many of the sides down the bottom are improving (Saints and Newcastle ) and I think that will have a major effect on what happens

28 points and a positive for and against will get you in the 8

Great work Juro , enjoy the Juro Curve every week

 

[Juro]

The zigzag pattern continues this week, with us dropping back to 50% chance of making the top 8\. Despite winning more games than we have lost, and being equal 4th on points, we sit outside the top 8, with a terrible F/A (-48). Compare that to the Rabbits who have the best F/A of this group, and a 78% chance of making the finals.


Key results:
- 1% chance of minor premiership (Panthers and Sea Eagles are 25%, Bulldogs are 23%. 3 teams are 0%.)
- 16% chance of finishing in top 4 (Panthers and Sea Eagles are 69%, 2 teams are 0%)
- 50% chance of finishing in top 8 (Panthers and Sea Eagles are 93%, Sharks are 0.5%)
- 0.3% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 38%, Raiders are 31%, Knights are 27%. 5 teams are 0%)

So it's a three horse race, at the top and the bottom, with everyone else squashed together in the middle…

 

[Juro]

I've added 2012 to the graph for expected cut-off for making the finals. Again, it finished with 9th place on 26 points, but was closer to 2014's line.

And with 4 top 8 teams losing this week, the curve for this year has dipped a little again.


At the moment, these are the chances of 9th place finishing on the following scores:

- 26: 10%
- 28: 75%
- 30: 15%

 

[Doc_Tiger]

Too many graphs. it's brain bending madness.

 

[Juro]

And so our win-lose pattern of the last 7 games came to an end, with us dropping below 50% chance of making the top 8 for the first time since our Round 1 loss. We are now sitting at 39%. This is marginally in front of where we were in 2011, before we won the next 9 games straight.


Key results:
- 0.2% chance of minor premiership (Sea Eagles are 31%, Panthers are 28%, Bulldogs are 24%. 3 teams are 0%.)
- 7% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sea Eagles are 81%, 2 teams are 0%)
- 39% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sea Eagles are 98%, Sharks are 0.1%)
- 0.6% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 57%, Raiders are 21%, Knights are 16%. 5 teams are 0%)

Our For and Against is really killing us at the moment. While we are 39% chance of making the finals, the Broncos (who also are on 20 points but with +76 F/A) are 55% chance. We have a F/A of -80, 156 behind them. This means we need to improve our F/A by +19.5 per game relative to them to catch up (assuming the same number of wins and losses).

Of our 8 wins so far, the average margin has been 9.5\. We have 5 games by a margin of less than 10.
Of our 8 losses so far, the average margin has been 19.5\. We have lost only 1 game by a margin of less than 10.

 

[happy_tiger]

Simply put , we need to turn it around NOW

 

[Juro]

Absolutely. But much easier said than done…

I've added 2011 to the graph for expected cut-off for making the finals. That year ended up with team 9 (Canterbury) on 28 points with -40 F/A. However, for most of the season, it was looking certain to be 26 points.

The 2014 curve has turned dramatically this week. This is reflecting the form of teams like us (lost last 2), Parra (lost last 3), Brisbane (lost last 3), Melbourne (lost last 2).


At the moment, these are the chances of 9th place finishing on the following scores:

- 26: 18%
- 28: 73%
- 30: 9%

 

[TIGER]

Anyone willing to have a bet we won't finish higher than 12th?

 

[Juro]

Do you really want me to start giving the numbers for bottom 4 again (like last year)?

 

[Juro]

An underdog win is one of the sweetest things in rugby league. This win put us back up to 50% chance of making the top 8.

Another sweet thing is a winning streak. So far this year, we have only been able to string 3 wins together in a row. We will likely need to string a few more together to get anywhere this year.


Key results:
- 0.4% chance of minor premiership (Sea Eagles are 48%, Panthers are 17%, Bulldogs are 14%. 3 teams are 0%.)
- 11% chance of finishing in top 4 (Sea Eagles are 89%, Knights are the 3rd team to hit 0%)
- 50% chance of finishing in top 8 (Sea Eagles are 99%, Sharks are 0%)
- 0.1% chance of wooden spoon (Sharks are 62%, Raiders are 20%, Knights are 16%. Broncos, Storm and Warriors join 5 teams on 0%)

It was in round 19 last year that we reached 0% chance of making the top 4\. 2 rounds later, we were 0% chance of making the top 8.

 

[Juro]

The curve for expected cut-off for making the finals bounced back this week. This is reflecting wins for 2 out of 3 teams who were on 22, 3 out of 5 teams on 20 and 2 out of 2 teams on 18\. It all remains incredibly tight!


At the moment, these are the chances of 9th place finishing on the following scores:

- 26: 10%
- 28: 75%
- 30: 15%

The chances of 9th finishing on 28 have remained fairly constant over the last few weeks, despite the average shifting.

 

[LaT]

Excellent work as always Juro, cheers.

 

[PYMBLEPETE]

Yes thanks Juro, its a great report you churn out; really look forward to it each week.

 

[TIGERS]

Anyone willing to have a bet we won't finish higher than 12th?

What odds are you offering mate.

I'd say 4:1 chance based on for and against.

 

[the_third]

Anyone willing to have a bet we won't finish higher than 12th?

What odds are you offering mate.

I'd say 4:1 chance based on for and against.

that's worth a pineapple at least

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[Kul]

I love this thread

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